BigJohn's Account Talk

[Frixxxx]

Taking out the fiscal cliff bogeyman, I don't see anything that makes me think the slow rise in the markets that we have seen over the last few months won't eventually continue.

All this makes me want to puke...

Just remember that the tax mandate for all business is now in effect, unless compromise can be reached. We now have to smartly review the indicators to show when the growth will occur to be positioned for the move after the lawmakers 1) avoid fiscal cliff 2) repeal sequestration. It can be a little sickening, can't it?

 

[JTH]

BigJohn, I'm not entirely confident we've put in the bottom here, but I'm glad to see you didn't take too much damage in the I-Fund (when compared to the others.)

 

[BigJohn]

BigJohn, I'm not entirely confident we've put in the bottom here, but I'm glad to see you didn't take too much damage in the I-Fund (when compared to the others.)

"I don't see anything that makes me think the slow rise in the markets that we have seen over the last few months won't eventually continue."

JTH...you are spot on, and I am going to hedge a bit on when "eventually continue" is. My guess is mid January...but as I have warned readers repeatedly "follow me at your peril as I have no financial/economic degrees or background," and I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night either! Mid January is just what I think based on news and current events.

I fund: it is days like yesterday that prove I have no idea what correlation exists between the market and the share prices.

 

[BigJohn]

Now what?

I bought into the I fund on 10/23 at $19.59.

My strategy calls for me to exit once the share price is 1% higher than my buy in cost.

Friday's close puts the I fund above 1% (actually closer to 2%) from my buy in...

Fiscal cliff: GOP showing signs of compromising on taxes which makes the fiscal cliff less likely (which if you track my earlier posts, I never thought was very likely).

Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered...don't want to be a hog.

Thoughts?

 

[Cactus]

If you have a system but you don't follow it do you really have a system? You are just getting side tracked. I mean I get side tracked all the time because my trade goes negative and I hold on for months waiting for it to turn positive again when I would have been better served cutting my loses and buying back in at a lower price point. That is the kind of stuff a system is suppose to avoid. I would think if you have a system that works you would be better following it even if you didn't make as much $$$ this time around.

 

[JTH]

Well (speaking for myself) If I still had an IFT I'd make the exit today, because we have reached areas where a pullback/pause is likely to occur and it would be possible to dig in at a lower price. But if that were the case, I would have pulled out on Friday anyways, so that point is mute. Adding to this, my internals are not overbought, so I still see the potential for room to the upside. Most of the major indexes have made a 50% bounce from the Sep top to the Nov bottom (no clearly defined winner there.) The question then becomes if there is a pullback from here, how long will it be and do we wait out the pullback so we can start off the month of December invested?

I could flip either ways, I don't want to stay in, but I do want to start off December invested because it gives me more options.

 

[BigJohn]

If you have a system but you don't follow it do you really have a system? You are just getting side tracked. I mean I get side tracked all the time because my trade goes negative and I hold on for months waiting for it to turn positive again when I would have been better served cutting my loses and buying back in at a lower price point. That is the kind of stuff a system is suppose to avoid. I would think if you have a system that works you would be better following it even if you didn't make as much $$$ this time around.

Good points...I have tried "cutting my losses and buying back in at a lower price point" before, which worked about half the time (no kidding, right?). Tom and I have kicked this around a couple of times, my system forbids me from locking in a loss...even recognizing that I could take a minimal loss by a quick exit, and then buy in later at a lower price. In my way of thinking this makes IFTs easier to make as I am not trying to catch a falling knife (which I think means recognizing the point where the market bottoms out).

You've convinced me, my system calls for me to bail if the markets are in positive territory before the trade deadline...and so I shall.


Thanks for the input!

 

[BigJohn]

Well (speaking for myself) If I still had an IFT I'd make the exit today, because we have reached areas where a pullback/pause is likely to occur and it would be possible to dig in at a lower price. But if that were the case, I would have pulled out on Friday anyways, so that point is mute. Adding to this, my internals are not overbought, so I still see the potential for room to the upside. Most of the major indexes have made a 50% bounce from the Sep top to the Nov bottom (no clearly defined winner there.) The question then becomes if there is a pullback from here, how long will it be and do we wait out the pullback so we can start off the month of December invested?

I could flip either ways, I don't want to stay in, but I do want to start off December invested because it gives me more options.

The funds being down early may make my decision easier...

 

[JTH]

You stayed in? I didn't

 

[BigJohn]

You stayed in? I didn't

I did...I am really hoping that tomorrow morning has a nice pre-deadline bump so I can jump out.

 

[BigJohn]

I did...I am really hoping that tomorrow morning has a nice pre-deadline bump so I can jump out.

Bailed this morning...didn't get the pre-deadline bump I wanted, but having limited computer access for the next week tip the scale to sell.

 

[JTH]

Congrats on the well timed exit, I didn't think you'd escape with the gain today and you did

 

[BigJohn]

Congrats on the well timed exit, I didn't think you'd escape with the gain today and you did

I's a good thing my teeth have skin!

Thanks!

 

[BigJohn]

Well I was wrong...my rant right after the election about how the market was going to be driven down with a lot of fearmongering didn't pan out, instead we saw a steady 1% move up.

I jumped in on 12/21 at $20.79 and look to move out today hopefully with a 1-2% gain for the day. As I have mentioned in the past, the I fund is a hard one to like...seeing how the EAFE fund and the day's share prices sometimes don't marry up (the dreaded FV). Yesterday was a prime example, EAFE was up around 1.5%...I fund share price went up .66%.

So my foolish hope for today is that the I fund recoups what it lost out on yesterday and rides todays action to a...dare I say it, 3% gain?

Happy New Year all!

BigJohn

 

[jpcavin]

I was thinking about moving out of I Fund today but not sure where to move to. You moving to G? I noticed a few with good track records moved to F but I don't like F either. Decisions, decisions..

 

[BigJohn]

I was thinking about moving out of I Fund today but not sure where to move to. You moving to G? I noticed a few with good track records moved to F but I don't like F either. Decisions, decisions..

Sorry, I had to step away to feed kids. I went G.

 

[JTH]

Perhaps a nicely timed exit?

It's hard to really make anything technical from today's action, it was just too strong. The UUP U.S. Dollar ETF put in a impressive gap down this morning, then recovered and gaped again on the way back up, afterwards appearing to hint towards a bull flag.

View attachment 21741

 

[BigJohn]

I'll never complain about a 1.88% day...but good grief, the S and C really took off.

Congrats to those in the C and S and best of luck to everyone!

 

[Birchtree]

Today would be a good day to even up on the fair value - so the I fund won't be that far behind.

 

[BigJohn]

Today would be a good day to even up on the fair value - so the I fund won't be that far behind.

Any thoughts on where the I fund will end up today? I agree with you that it would make sense for the FV to even up from yesterday...but now add to that the fund dropping 1% today. My guess is down 0.75%.