BigJohn's Account Talk

[BigJohn]

For those who find my "locking in a loss" ideology scandalous...please stop reading.

So, checked the share prices and my buy-in date and am cautiously optimistic that I will have an opportunity (should I choose to take it) in the not too distant future to get out of the market with my 1% gain from buy-in to drop-out dates. Bought in on August 1 when the I fund was at $20.52...closed yesterday at $19.34. I am still over a dollar a share away from breaking even, but it is a heck of a lot closer than at some points over the last few months. When the I fund gets around $20.70 I may pull the trigger...we'll see. I still think the general trend across the markets is up, and I cannot shake the feeling that the I fund has the most room to grow. We'll see if I am right soon.

Best of luck!

JP,

I have been firmly rooted on my keister, and haven't paid much attention to my totals for the last month or so. If it wasn't for a knucklehead I work with who came into my office and congratulated me for being #138 on the tracker...I wouldn't have even looked.

So what would I do??? I would go back to my old strategy of buying in on mornings that see a big drop pre-deadline and then riding it up. The "riding it up" part may take a while, as is the case with me being married to the I fund for a heck of a lot longer than I had planned. But that buy in strategy has always worked well enough for me.

 

[JTH]

We'll see if I am right soon.

 

[BigJohn]

JTH,

Well said...and 100% accurate.

 

[BigJohn]

Hi John - how high do you think this bull can climb? 1340 level?

For those who find my "locking in a loss" ideology scandalous...please stop reading.

So, checked the share prices and my buy-in date and am cautiously optimistic that I will have an opportunity (should I choose to take it) in the not too distant future to get out of the market with my 1% gain from buy-in to drop-out dates. Bought in on August 1 when the I fund was at $20.52...closed yesterday at $19.34. I am still over a dollar a share away from breaking even, but it is a heck of a lot closer than at some points over the last few months. When the I fund gets around $20.70 I may pull the trigger...we'll see. I still think the general trend across the markets is up, and I cannot shake the feeling that the I fund has the most room to grow. We'll see if I am right soon.

Best of luck!

It has been over a year since I found myself in a position to even thinking about moving out of stocks, today is the day. We certainly eclipsed the 1340 mark, but haven't quite made it all the way back in the I fund to get the departure point I wanted. Oh well, I must admit that all the goings on got me a bit skeert.

Best of luck to all...

 

[BigJohn]

I know this is last minute...but can anyway tell me a reason why not to jump into the I for a short term play?

 

[tsptalk]

Agree. With dollar looking to break down from a bear flag, I too have a piece of the I-fund.

 

[Birchtree]

Let's try and keep a low profile with the I fund trade - we don't want it to get crowded.

 

[JTH]

I know this is last minute...but can anyway tell me a reason why not to jump into the I for a short term play?

Well since Spain created a better-than-expected budget, this sets aside that problem for now. I'm more focused on the currencies and their impact on our dollar. I would love to see the bear flag unfold, but since the Sep 13th QE3 announment, the dollar has risen. As I speak, we have a minor double top on UUP.

View attachment 20523

 

[JTH]

Back in 2009 I wrote a blog talking about what makes a consistent winner on the auto tracker, if you look at the list of names I outed, you'll see some familiar names includng BigJohn. Congratulations on yet another well executed month!

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/jth/125-searching-winner.html

 

[BigJohn]

Thanks JTH,

And thanks to Griffin and Fundsurfer and others that I followed earlier on and learned from. My "strategy" such that it is has been posted on this thread a couple of times...like most things, it has its flaws, but it works for me. I have the benefit of 15+ years before I can retire, makes waiting out the bad times easier (like the 13 months I sat in the I fund over the last year waiting for it to recover).

On an unrelated note, I am stuck without secured Internet access and can't execute a move today...would've been tempting with the early drop.

Great month yourself...you are welcomed company on the monthly tally!

Back in 2009 I wrote a blog talking about what makes a consistent winner on the auto tracker, if you look at the list of names I outed, you'll see some familiar names includng BigJohn. Congratulations on yet another well executed month!

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/jth/125-searching-winner.html

 

[BigJohn]

Looking for an out next week. Hopefully we'll see an early pop in the market so I can take a breather, although we have seen a few "early pops" that didn't hold. Why am I headed out? I am getting the creeps...the debate, the "miraculous" jobs report, the election, I think we are in an extremely volatile period and I don't want to have my $ in the mix.

 

[BigJohn]

Looking for an out next week. Hopefully we'll see an early pop in the market so I can take a breather, although we have seen a few "early pops" that didn't hold. Why am I headed out? I am getting the creeps...the debate, the "miraculous" jobs report, the election, I think we are in an extremely volatile period and I don't want to have my $ in the mix.

If the I Fund is +1% at the deadline I am out...locking in some gains and seeing how things go from there.

Best of Luck!!

 

[BigJohn]

I missed getting out last week by a day (and went against my strategy) and got crushed. Back into the breach today per my strategy, from my perspective (and with years until I retire), I am not sure how one could stay on the sidelines with this big of an early dip.

 

[BigJohn]

I missed getting out last week by a day (and went against my strategy) and got crushed. Back into the breach today per my strategy, from my perspective (and with years until I retire), I am not sure how one could stay on the sidelines with this big of an early dip.

I still have the golden touch...I fund was down 2.64% when I checked right before I moved in, now it is trending up and is currently at 2.40%. I hope it doesn't turn out like last year when I had to sit in the I fund for 13 months to recoup my losses, only time will tell.

JPCavin...you out there?

 

[BigJohn]

I still have the golden touch...I fund was down 2.64% when I checked right before I moved in, now it is trending up and is currently at 2.40%. I hope it doesn't turn out like last year when I had to sit in the I fund for 13 months to recoup my losses, only time will tell.

JPCavin...you out there?

I think the I fund got FV'ed...though I don't know if anyone tracks that phenomenon any more. I know there isn't an exact correlation between the EAF fund an the share prices, but I find it interesting that EAF was down over 2% yesterday and yet the share price only went down 1.79%. Back in the days of yore several members used to try and play the I fund/FV short term game...sometimes we hit it big, other times we got dinged. It was never a solid strategy but it was at least entertaining.

A buddy called me yesterday and asked me what I thought was going on and what would happen with the markets...CAVEAT EMPTOR...I told him I would throw every chart and economic indicator out the window for the next 90 days as I see this entire market being manipulated by the political games going on. I told him that 6 months from now I think the markets will be about where we are now or slightly higher...why? Because the economy is moving in a positive direction, neither party can afford to let the government fall off the fiscal cliff...and both parties want to claim credit for an improving economy (which I think we will have once the election year manipulations cool off).

Call me Oliver Stone if you wish...I am about ready to puke over the whole election year BS. A quick poll question: anyone (rep or dem) not think term limits are long over due?

 

[BigJohn]

I FUND EXPLODES AS TSP INVESTORS SIT STUNNED................

4 cents baby...4 cents, not exactly the rebound I was looking for.

 

[Cattman]

I FUND EXPLODES AS TSP INVESTORS SIT STUNNED................

4 cents baby...4 cents, not exactly the rebound I was looking for.

I hear ya. I was planning on getting out Friday and missed the deadline and after Monday morning was flat decided to stay another day. Still in and ready for a nice upswing to make up for the past week.

 

[BigJohn]

I hear ya. I was planning on getting out Friday and missed the deadline and after Monday morning was flat decided to stay another day. Still in and ready for a nice upswing to make up for the past week.

For what it is worth, I think we both will have a shot a getting out shortly. I think today or tomorrow we will see a nice pre-deadline bounce of over 1%...which will be my sell signal. Hopefully the morning bounce will hold till close.

 

[jpcavin]

JPCavin...you out there?

Been out sick for the last few days. Now waiting on an exit point. Don't want to wait 13 months

 

[BigJohn]

What a monumental load of crap. My guy didn't win, but that has nothing to do with the following: I don't think for a minute that the real power brokers in government and out didn't know this election was a foregone conclusion. We saw reports that predicted a 500-1000 point explosion if Romney pulled the upset...and then saw "polls" indicating that an upset was more and more possible. We saw a nice pre-election day move up which probably bolstered the optimism of investors, maybe enough to move in to stocks. And now today, the bottom drops out and it is all gloom and doom. This market is on a puppet string...suck people in with a lot of BS, then cut their legs out from under them; act two is to push the gloom and doom to drive people out so big investors can buy low and ride it back up.

I am in the I fund and will remain there for the ride back up. Had I been on the sidelines this morning I would have jumped in with both feet and a smile on my face.

The fiscal cliff is the next opportunity to screw smaller investors: I don't think for a minute the cliff will become a reality, for the simple reason that both parties would be blamed for letting it happen. Can you imagine being an incumbent at the next election cycle and have to run with the baggage of being partly responsible for letting the government go off the cliff? It will never happen... But the possibility of the cliff will be used to manipulate the market in the same manner as we just saw during the election cycle: leak out reports that the cliff is looming...inject fear...the market drops...buy at a lower cost; float the news that the cliff is about to be averted...inject hope...market pops...sell at a profit.

Taking out the fiscal cliff bogeyman, I don't see anything that makes me think the slow rise in the markets that we have seen over the last few months won't eventually continue.

All this makes me want to puke...