Big caps fall, small caps flat

Stocks were mixed on Thursday with the Dow falling 117-points, but we may have to cut it some slack after the 400-point rally it had (from the day's low to high) after the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The Nasdaq was up and small caps were flat.

The first two days of the NCAA basketball tournament are my favorite non-holiday days of the year, and I treat them like holidays. After watching 12 straight hours of games - with one eye on the market - it's late and I am going to have to make this quick.

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The I-fund gave back a big chunk of Wednesday's gains on Thursday because the dollar rebounded about 1.5% on the day. Bonds were down modestly.

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The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) gave back some of the big gains it picked up on Wednesday. So far this isn't too concerning, but if the bears nibble this down much further, it may indicate that the bulls don't have the stamina to take this to new highs. The big spike in the dollar on Thursday was the main reason the large caps underperformed the small caps, which were flat.

Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) is greatly impacted by the dollar, and with the dollar up over 1.5%, the I-fund took a 1.42% loss - after the big 2.6% gain on Wednesday. So far it's just gyrations but I don't like when a pullback is more than 50% of the prior gain.

Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) was down and remains in a short-term rising trading channel.

Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


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Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary

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