Stocks tried to hang in there on Friday but the bears took charge in afternoon trading and the Dow ended the day down 82-points. The charts are starting to look a little questionable, at least in the short-term, so the bulls will have some work to do today to take control back.
I still have a few more days that I will be heavily occupied and I will have to make this quick. I always try to respond to emails and questions as quickly as possible, but I won't have access to my computer much during the day over the next couple of days.
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The I-fund led the TSP Funds because of the late selling in the U.S. indices, and the DAX continued to climb. Bonds had a good day.
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) fell out of the short-term rising trading channel, but it was quite steep and probably needed a break. The question is, how much of a break does it need? I think the 20-day EMA could come into play.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) has held up well and the old resistance line is still holding as support. If that fails, the 20-day EMA would also be in the picture here.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) has been on a tear but has had a problem moving above the recent highs after 4 attempts. The bottom of the channel is the place to watch on any pullback.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The short-term indicators have come well off the overbought levels and are now neutral. That's interesting considering the indices are still very near all-time highs. That's somewhat of a comfort since it wouldn't take much to see them hit oversold levels, which have been great buying opportunities.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) broke above the bear flag last week, which is unusual, and now the top of the flag may try to hold as support . There is resistance near the 111.25 so we'll see how strong that is this week.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
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Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
