Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

USD monthly: I want to make it clear that I'm NOT trading based on cycle data. I'm ST trading extremes during this crazy ass news cycle. Very oversold or very overbought gets me looking for a possible ST trade.
 

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VXF daily: A nice start to the week.... We shall see if buyers will continue to come back in... The 50 day SMA is up next. VXF has moved back above the 3 day EMA, and the 10 and 20 day SMA.... A very nice Bullish move.

Watching the Small and Midcap charts, and waiting for the next news event.
 

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USD weekly chart: Is the ICL for the USD in? STBD.... LOL.... I know, another weekly chart for the USD from robo.... It remains an important chart in my opinion.

 

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SPX and IWM daily: The 50 day SMA be up next. I'm currently flat....

We shall see how the Bull Trap plays out... STBD!

Don’t Get Caught in the Bull Trap​

The talking heads have flipped.

All those financial TV analysts who were preaching caution last Monday as the S&P was nearing 5100 are now talking bullish. “Get in now” they cheer as the index is trading 400 points higher.

Somehow, I suspect folks will regret that advice in the days ahead.

Last week’s action felt like a “bull trap.” That’s when reluctant bulls get coaxed back into the market just in time for the bear to take another swipe.

 

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IWM daily chart as we move into the last hour of trading: The indicators, the 3 vertical lines on the IWM daily chart are warning us to reduce some.... We shall see how it plays out as BTDers continue to show up.

Bottom Line: The move up continues and so does the Risk levels.... I will point out the SPX does perform better after these warning signals are generated, but I trade small and Midcap most of the time.
 

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Is it a bull trap or will more good news continue to fuel a rally higher?


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I don't know how this will play out, but the extremely oversold VXF has passed and now has made a very nice run higher. I'm trading using Bear Market rules so I'm flat again.

I just trade my indicators. When the indexes I'm trading are extremely oversold I usually go long, when they are extremely overbought I reduce. Currently the market is in area that I don't trade.

Bottom Line: The trend remains up for VXF and IWM. They are both getting closer to testing their 50 day SMAs.
 

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IWM daily: For now IWM continues to make lower highs.... The BTDers continue to come in, and it looks like that will continue.

My data indicates the current move lower is not complete.

IWM daily, weekly, monthly: For now IWM continues to make lower highs.... A nice bounce off the 10 day SMA, but IWM needs to move back above the 50 day SMA, and start a trending move higher.
 

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