Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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tsptalk said:
I wish the gap would get filled, and I'd be a buyer as long as the bottom of the gap holds. Gaps get filled and as long as it's open we'd be looking over our shoulder. :)
Click to expand...

I sure agree Tom, but it sure looks like the Bulls (someone) might be defending that 9 DMA on the HUI chart....Gold is down over 12.00 dollars, and the miners are holding up pretty good here. However, that could sure change quickly. I'm not sure I agree with Kaplan ( waiting to confirm), but his thoughts are below on these current spikes down.

"Those who don't follow precious metals closely probably think Monday morning's sudden price plunge for gold and silver, followed by an equally rapid rebound, was some kind of once-in-several-years event. A far more important collapse and recovery had occurred in the morning of December 31, 2013--less than a week ago--when both gold and silver plummeted to their lowest points since June 2013 before regaining all of their losses and more. This has nothing to do with manipulation, intervention, and other such nonsense; it is the nature of bear-market bottoms to attempt as many retests and shakeouts and triggering of sell stops as possible, so the fewest possible investors will benefit once a bull market is underway in earnest:"

True Contrarian

I also took a 10% position in USLV for a trade.

Good trading.
 
robo said:
HUI is the most important gold miner chart in my opinion, and the 9 DMA really needs to hold here or that nasty gap could fill.


$HUI - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com


GDX - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com
Click to expand...


The 9 DMA is still holding on the HUI chart as the beat-down in gold continues. It's still early, but if it holds and the Bulls can defend we could get a multi-day rally.

Long GDX GDXJ JNUG NUGT USLV TZA


Good trading.

I'm looking at some recommended positions, but haven't taken them yet. If I do they will be very small in position size.

AG NGD AUY


http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...n;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;


http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=NGD

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=AUY

I will probably not buy these, but if I do it will be only about 1% of my trading account.
 
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I'm going to hold my USLV as a position trade for now...I'm liking the current action and have two buy signals for SLV that came from different services the last few days. STBD if they will be correct signals, but we will know soon if this is just another Bull Trap.


1/7/2014 9:32:09 AM ET USLV Bought 500 USLV @ $46.8899 Executed

A nice move up for the gold miners at the close.


CrabClaw,

It looks like a nice trade on your NUGT buy this morning. So now we wait......
 
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It's Not (Just) About The Gold

By: David Morgan | Tue, Jan 7, 2014

The "balanced" life seems to be about a number of things - nurturing strong relationships, giving as well as receiving, expressing gratitude, being resilient, holding a belief in something larger than oneself, having a bit of luck from time to time, and yes making some money too. But given that we are imperfect beings - often tossed to and fro by the events of the day, it definitely helps to "stay in touch" with our core values, and realign ourselves to them from time to time. Going on autopilot for many years and assuming the details will take care of themselves, is not always the best course of action.

It's Not (Just) About The Gold | David Morgan | Safehaven.com
 
MAYBE....Jeff will get this one correct......

Get Ready for the Next Bullish Move in Gold Stocks
By Jeff Clark
Tuesday, January 7, 2014

There's another bullish setup happening in the gold sector.

Until now.

GDX has been in a low-level consolidation pattern for the past five weeks – bouncing back and forth between support at about $20.50 per share and resistance at about $22.30. That action has given the 50-DMA time to decline toward the resistance line of the consolidating pattern.

If GDX manages to pop above $22.50 per share, it will take out both the resistance line of the pattern and the longer-term resistance of the 50-DMA. This should be enough to kick off at least a short-term rally in the gold sector.

Traders can buy GDX on a move above the 50-DMA and then look to take profits as GDX approaches the next resistance line near $26.50.

Growth Stock Wire | Stock Market Analysis, Market News & Stock Picks
 
10 Reasons the Gold Bugs Lost Their Shirts

By Barry Ritholtz Jan 8, 2014 5:00 AM MT


It has been quite the ride for gold: from under $500 an ounce a decade ago, to above $1,900 in 2011, gold gained more than 400 percent. Since its peak of ~$1,921.15 on Sept. 6, 2011, however, the shine is off the yellow metal. Gold plummeted 38 percent, recently breaking below $1,200. Yesterday’s close is within 5 percent of the lows, at $1,241.

If a 20 percent drop is described as a bear market, and a 30 percent fall is called a crash -- what do we call gold’s almost 40 percent plummet?




10 Reasons the Gold Bugs Lost Their Shirts - Bloomberg
 
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Is a Monster Rally Brewing in Gold and Silver?

January 8, 2014

Regardless, regression to the mean is relevant, even in manipulated markets. Expect a trend change in 2014 and much higher gold and silver prices as they rally above their 200 day moving averages.

The ratio of silver prices to the S&P is back to 2008 levels and substantially below the linear trend since 2006. Expect the ratio to regress (rise) to its mean while silver prices rally substantially from here.

Both long and short term time cycles indicate that an important bottom occurred in June of 2013. It appears that a double-bottom occurred in December of 2013. If this double-bottom holds, time cycles suggest that silver will rally strongly in 2014.

Is a Monster Rally Brewing in Gold and Silver?
 
Buy some shares of AGQ while they are still cheap.......ProShares Ultra Silver (AGQ)

AGQ: Summary for ProShares Ultra Silver- Yahoo! Finance

I have shares of USLV, but not recommended for most folks.....it's a 3X index and it will have decay issues if held very long. You should keep your position size small if you trade these Higher Risk indexes.

USLV: Summary for Credit Suisse AG- Yahoo! Finance

Good trading.


Silver Short Squeeze 2

By: Adam Hamilton | Fri, Jan 3, 2014


Silver is poised for a massive recovery upleg in 2014, a mean reversion from last year's dismal action. The main driver of silver's initial strength will be American futures speculators covering shorts. These bearish bets on silver soared to a bull-record high last month, which will require exceptional buying to unwind. Futures speculators as a herd always bet wrong at major lows, they are a fantastic contrarian indicator.

Silver Short Squeeze 2 | Adam Hamilton | Safehaven.com

Silver Launchpad 2

By: Adam Hamilton | Fri, Dec 20, 2013


Silver has cratered in 2013, spawning a sentiment wasteland of extreme bearishness. Yet peak despair is the very best time to buy low. Silver prices have converged on multiple major secular support zones, an exceedingly bullish technical launchpad. The white metal is also very cheap relative to gold, which is its primary driver. All this is setting up silver and the stocks of its miners for a fantastic new upleg in 2014

Silver Launchpad 2 | Adam Hamilton | Safehaven.com
 
Market Timing Facts vs. Market Timing Fiction

The phrase "market timing" has been terribly misused, and misunderstood, by market commentators, analysts, traders and investors.


Tell Us Another Story

We believe that some of the worst advice, which is given to the vast majority of investors, is to select an index fund, set up an automatic deposit program to make monthly deposits into it, and then do nothing until you retire. At that time, so the logic goes, you will be rich from the huge profits derived from your investments.

Imagine for a moment an investor, following such a buy-and-hold strategy, who planned to retire in 2002 or say 2008.

Market timing doesn't work? Sure, tell us another story.


Market Timing Pro
 
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Presidential Cycle Inverting?

The 1929 scenario discussed in a Dec. 12, 2013 Chart In Focus article still appears to be "working", and that chart was updated in a recent issue of our twice monthly McClellan Market Report newsletter, which is available to subscribers. I do not think that we are in for an event of the same magnitude as 1929's crash and subsequent decline, but the imposition of "crash physics" on the market could be a possible explanation for the inversion we are seeing. Just as compasses have been reported to swing wildly upon entry into the Bermuda Triangle, perhaps the entry into a 1929-style crash scenario is flipping the market's polarity for a while. Caution is clearly in order at a time when the market just is not acting normally.

Presidential Cycle Inverting? - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart - McClellan Financial
 
Added some more shares of USLV during this mornings dip.


Good trading....


I also just added some more shares of JNUG

1/9/2014 1:51:51 PM ET JNUG Bought 475 JNUG @ $16.1099 Executed
 
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I sold my TZA....the action is way to slow for day - trading. I'll take another shot at it later. In my opinion a tradable move down is coming.


1/9/2014 11:09:18 AM ET TZA Sold TZA @ $17.442 Executed
 
With the jobs numbers expected to be very good tomorrow, the set-up to push gold down thru the June lows is now in place. The gaps filled on the miner charts, so is gold headed to test 1180 or lower tomorrow....we shall see, but I will add if we do.

GDXJ - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

GDX - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

$GOLD - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com


Australian for Gold
Thursday, January 9, 2014

Last February, we had commented on the cyclical nature of the strong correlation relationship that existed between the Australian Dollar and gold. While we were already card-carrying bears in both assets, the Aussie was pushing up against long-term resistance while net-speculative longs were reaching extremes at historic highs. The general thought at the time was that the juxtaposition of the cyclical correlation trend pointed towards another major inflection point for the Aussie - and buttressed our long standing perspective that a major breakdown was likely in the first half of last year in both assets.

Market Anthropology: Australian for Gold
 
Precious Metals Sentiment Update

01/08/2014 | Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT

Before Christmas, public opinion on Silver was near 20% bulls. That was in the bottom 3% of all readings in the past 20 years. At the same time, the speculative position in Silver was in the bottom 8% of all readings in the past 20 years.

Precious Metals Sentiment Update - The Daily Gold
 
Gold… The Bull vs Bear ; Checkmate or Game On ?

Posted @ 10:40 pm EST on January 9, 2014 by Rambus


In Keeping with a Theme here at Rambus Chartology lets look in on the complex game being played on the Chess board that is the Precious Metals Market

Tonight I would like to show you some charts from the bull and bear side of the equation for gold. This is called an inflection point where the precious metals complex can move either way and establish some sort of short to intermediate term move. A lot of these charts you have seen before. Lets start with the bearish charts for gold which there are a lot to look at. Before we do I just want to make it perfectly clear that I’m still in the bear camp but as you will see we could have a short to intermediate rally that fits into this scenario that doesn’t change the big picture.

Rambus Chartology for Subscribers | The Finest in Technical Analysis and Realtime Market Commentary.
 
Starting to reduce position size for Risk Management reasons, not because I'm bearish on the miners.


1/10/2014 10:35:13 AM ET NUGT Sold 500 NUGT @ $30.46 Executed

1/10/2014 10:39:06 AM ET JNUG Sold 500 JNUG @ $17.51 Executed

1/10/2014 10:47:39 AM ET USLV Sold 300 USLV @ $49.5201 Executed


Good trading.
 
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robo said:
Starting to reduce position size for Risk Management reasons, not because I'm bearish on the miners.


1/10/2014 10:35:13 AM ET NUGT Sold 500 NUGT @ $30.46 Executed

1/10/2014 10:39:06 AM ET JNUG Sold 500 JNUG @ $17.51 Executed


Good trading.
Click to expand...

I did the same thing. sold my NUGT for a 5% gain. Also sold some NUGT calls that I picked up a couple days ago for a fractional gain. looking for the next trade.

good luck to you.
 
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