Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

[robo]

S Fund: A nice oversold bounce after getting very close to the 200 day MA.

We shall what happens next week as we get closer to the tariff deadline.

 

[robo]

SPX monthly: The AIIBear data on the monthly is very Bearish (currently over 60ish) but some of the other indicators are not. I'm wondering if that has to do with the upcoming tariff talk... We shall see how it plays out.... For now, the monthly trend remains up.

S Fund Daily: Oversold and it looks like it has bottomed.... A nice bounce Friday after getting very close to the 200 day MA.... Waiting on the next tariff comments....

 

[robo]

S Fund: Undercutting the 200 day MA today as the tariff talk ramps up.... We could see a nice bounce if the tariffs are delayed again...

I continue to watch the show..... I might place a small trade using IWM, in case the tariffs are delayed.

 

[robo]

IWM daily: I placed a beer Money trade using IWM. It is a possible tariff oversold bounce trade. We shall see how it plays out.

Very oversold on the daily....

 

[robo]

SPX monthly: I'm still watching to see if we might be heading into a YCL. A move below the 10 month MA would have to happen before a confirmed cycle signal would be in play.

IWM monthly: We shall see if IWM is leading the SPX into the ICL. This is month 2 since IWM moved below the 10 month MA.

What will Canada do? WOW!

What will Mexico and China do? We shall see how it plays out....

 

[robo]

We shall see....

Fear

CNN’s Fear and Greed Index has registered “Extreme Fear” two consecutive days. And we. know what Mr Buffet would say … “Be greedy when others are fearful.”&#8221…

likesmoneycycletrading.blog

CNN’s Fear and Greed Index has registered “Extreme Fear” two consecutive days. And we. know what Mr Buffet would say … “Be greedy when others are fearful.”“

 

[robo]

S Fund daily: Another move lower.... Watching as small caps continue to lead the move lower.... Very oversold on the daily chart.

 

[robo]

I'm now ST trading VXF/IWM and NVDA based on the daily oversold data. Small positions....

 

[robo]

Daily chart: So far a very nice bounce..... We shall see how we close.... Also, who is BTD? Investors or ST traders like me who will be selling quickly... Maybe both! Waiting on the VIX to indicate what the market is thinking.

 

[tsptalk]

Agree. When midday reversals start too early, the bears tend to give it another go before the close. We'll see.

 

[robo]

Agree. When midday reversals start too early, the bears tend to give it another go before the close. We'll see.

Taking profits, and I'm done for the day. We shall see what tomorrow brings. The daily chart remains very oversold....

 

[robo]

Daily trading charts: The VIX is moving down so we could get a buy signal once it moves back into the BBs.... The other indicators remain on a BTD if you are ST trading using the daily charts.... We shall see how it plays out, and if the S Fund can move back above the 200 day MA. The selloff was due since some sectors were very overbought. One never knows what will cause the ST exit. The odds still favor a oversold bounce, but some money is moving overseas into different sectors... Waiting on the next tariff comment. Good news or bad news???

The S Fund continues to see lower highs since the December high.... I'm still wondering if we are moving into a YCL

 

[robo]

SPX monthly and the YCL: The selloff gave the SPX a tag of the 10 month MA, but the BTDer's came in... This is the main chart I'm watching right now.

We shall see how it plays out.... Both IWM and the S Fund remain above their 10 month MA.... so the monthly trend remains up!

 

[robo]

The SPX weekly: This is week 2 since the SPX and VTI moved below the 10 week MA. Getting closer to the 50 week MA. For the last couple of years the SPX pattern has only remained below the 10 week MA for 2 or 3 weeks. We shall see if the tariff talk causes a deeper selloff. Keep in mind valuation levels were at noise bleed levels in the weeks before the pullback.

Why track the daily? Used for ST trading.

Why track the weekly? Used for MT trading.

Why track the monthly: Used for LT investors.

 

[robo]

VIX daily: Starting to turn lower..... We shall see if the Total Stock Market can hold above 200 day MA in the days ahead, and the VIX continues to move lower.... So far a good sign for a ST oversold trade.

 

[robo]

Hold Your Nose and Buy Stocks – Market Minute

Hold your nose and buy.

It doesn’t happen often. But, whenever the major market indexes decline towards their 200 day moving averages during a bull market, it pays to be a buyer of stocks.

Look at these long-term charts of SPY and QQQ – the exchange-traded funds for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100…





LOL.... Ok Jeff, I did. We shall see how it plays out!

 

[robo]

Gold miners: I currently have NO position in this sector..... I wait!
Gold Monthly chart:

The Miners formed a swing low on Monday.

Miners Form Swing Low

The Miners formed a swing low on Monday. The Miners printed their lowest point on Friday, day 40, placing them in their timing band for a daily cycle low. The Miners are still in their daily uptren…

likesmoneycycletrading.blog

 

[robo]

SPX daily: What will it be next? Another tag of the 200 day MA ( a back test), maybe an undercut of the 200 day MA, how about a higher low, or maybe a lower low.....

Bottom Line: Buckle up because NO ONE knows for sure.... Since we are still over sold on the daily charts, I'm ST trading from the long side. We shall see how it all plays out.

 

[robo]

Small caps daily: All I can say is they are just looking ugly!

Some indexes are beating the SPX and small caps.

Seeking Out Performance – 5/06/25

Outperformance is the act of producing better results. One way to measure the performance of an asset is to compare it to the S & P 500. The Health Care Sector has been out performing the S &am…

likesmoneycycletrading.blog

 

[robo]

SPX monthly: Trouble at the 10 month MA.... We can't rule out a move down into the YCL. However, for now I'm ST trading the oversold daily charts.