03/26/13
Stocks opened sharply higher yesterday and hit the day's high within the first half hour of trading before things went south. The Dow lost 64-points, but that was well off of the lows when the Dow was down 117-points in early afternoon trading.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 148"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0128%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.03%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.33%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.18%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.43%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Investors were trying to take in the Cyprus bailout news and it seemed to confuse them as we saw early selling of the rallies, but later they were buying the dips. Not a terrible day considering the 20-day EMA held again on the S&P 500, but the little pennant formation may have given a false breakout, and while it is a small pennant and not very important, they do tend to break down after a failed breakout.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Yesterday I said we should be on the lookout for a negative reversal day, which produced market tops along the intermediate-term resistance line.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow did close 115-point below the day's high yesterday so it could qualify as a negative reversal day, and the S&P 500 made a new 5+ year intraday high before closing down 5-points, so technically it could be a reversal peak, but it doesn't quite stand out like the other reversals in 2012.
The indicators are a mismatch of various neutral and mixed signals that aren't really giving me anything to make me feel strongly either way. My two favorite indicators, the put/call ratios and the sentiment surveys, are even at odds with each other.
As I said yesterday, as long as the S&P 500 chart remains above the 20-day EMA I can't hate the market in the short-term, but if that breaks down that changes everything. It's that intermediate-term chart that still has me concerned, but I have been sounding like the boy who cried wolf about that for many weeks now.
Friday is Good Friday and that means the stock markets will be closed so the TSP will not post share prices that day or, from what I understand, will not process transactions either. That means if you want to make a change in your allocation that is effective on April 1st, you will have to make your interfund transfer before 12:00 noon ET on Thursday 3/28. And that will be your last IFT for March. Any IFT's done after 12:00 noon ET on Thursday will count as an IFT for April.
It also means I won't post a market commentary on Friday morning, and I assume the premium services will not post reports either, but I will do the regular Weekly Wrap Up over the weekend.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks opened sharply higher yesterday and hit the day's high within the first half hour of trading before things went south. The Dow lost 64-points, but that was well off of the lows when the Dow was down 117-points in early afternoon trading.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 148"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0128%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.03%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.33%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.18%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.43%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Investors were trying to take in the Cyprus bailout news and it seemed to confuse them as we saw early selling of the rallies, but later they were buying the dips. Not a terrible day considering the 20-day EMA held again on the S&P 500, but the little pennant formation may have given a false breakout, and while it is a small pennant and not very important, they do tend to break down after a failed breakout.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Yesterday I said we should be on the lookout for a negative reversal day, which produced market tops along the intermediate-term resistance line.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow did close 115-point below the day's high yesterday so it could qualify as a negative reversal day, and the S&P 500 made a new 5+ year intraday high before closing down 5-points, so technically it could be a reversal peak, but it doesn't quite stand out like the other reversals in 2012.
The indicators are a mismatch of various neutral and mixed signals that aren't really giving me anything to make me feel strongly either way. My two favorite indicators, the put/call ratios and the sentiment surveys, are even at odds with each other.
As I said yesterday, as long as the S&P 500 chart remains above the 20-day EMA I can't hate the market in the short-term, but if that breaks down that changes everything. It's that intermediate-term chart that still has me concerned, but I have been sounding like the boy who cried wolf about that for many weeks now.
Friday is Good Friday and that means the stock markets will be closed so the TSP will not post share prices that day or, from what I understand, will not process transactions either. That means if you want to make a change in your allocation that is effective on April 1st, you will have to make your interfund transfer before 12:00 noon ET on Thursday 3/28. And that will be your last IFT for March. Any IFT's done after 12:00 noon ET on Thursday will count as an IFT for April.
It also means I won't post a market commentary on Friday morning, and I assume the premium services will not post reports either, but I will do the regular Weekly Wrap Up over the weekend.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
