Aviator Guy's Account Talk

[tsptalk]

Good luck!

 

[EW_ret]

Moved all my chips to the C Fund 2-2-07

We will add this to the TSPTalk Weekly Tracker effective COB Monday, Feb 5th. You need to post your TSP allocation change by 12:00 pm EST to count for that days fund prices. Your entry yesterday was after 12:00 pm so it will be entered into the Weekly Tracker for the following market day.

Read the sticky rules at top of forum to understand rules we use for posting to your account.

 

[GGal]

Aviator,

Your 4% return for January is impressive.....can you share your system or method?

Or was it just common sense, that S was going strong?

In retrospect, S was the place to be, but for some reason I just didn't see it until too late.

I was still hung up on the I fund.

Thanks
GA

 

[Aviator_Guy]

I start my day by making a good pot of coffee at home and watch Bloomberg and CNBC. They provide important updates on financial news before the markets open. When I’m away from my PC, I can get a quick update on the market by using my Treo 700. This device also allows me to quickly access TSP for interfund transfers

Long term, stocks are hard to beat, but I just don’t just blindly stay in stocks. The cool thing about our TSP is that it allows you to transfer funds at no direct cost. If you look at my trading for Jan, you will find that I was in the G Fund for roughly half of the month. I spent only 13 trading days in stocks (10days in S, 2 days in I, 1 day in C).

The G Fund allows you to keep your money in a totally safe place while you’re waiting for the best time to move into or out of the market. My favorite fund is the S Fund, followed by the C. I still don’t fully grasp the “I” fund, but it has an outstanding history of returns also. I own a Japanese SUV and German motorcycle, but I like the idea of using my TSP S and I Funds helping American companies vice International.

I have been in the TSP since it started up in the mid 80’s. Back then, you could only do the interfund transfer once a month! It was a lot more difficult back then to have good timing than it is today. I guess the most important tip is to stay informed of financial news and always look for downward trends as an opportunity to buy stocks at a bargain price.

I will never tell anyone how to invest their funds. But, you should always max out your TSP contributions and most important, stay informed. Have a great day and good luck with your investing!

 

[EW_ret]

Claims of past IFTs and performance belong in your "Account Talk" thread. I deleted the below entry from your "Aviator Guy's Account" thread today because it does not belong in this thread. Only your current IFTs should be entered in your account thread. I will enter you into Weekly Tracker at 100% C fund for Feb 5th.

Feb Info

0.000 % return for month of Feb, 100 % C as of COB Feb 2nd 2007

YTD 2007 Returns for Aviator Guy

Transaction All of my 2007 Inter Fund Transfers are at 100 %
Return
0.09 % G Fund to S Fund, 3 Jan 2007
1.01 % S Fund to G Fund, 11 Jan
0.09 % G Fund to I Fund, 16 Jan
0.59 % I Fund to S Fund, 19 Jan
1.11 % S Fund to G Fund, 23 Jan
0.09 % G Fund to C Fund, 29 Jan
1.27 % C Fund to G Fund, 31 Jan

YTD Returns as of 2-3-07 = 4.3 %

YTD I have made 8 Inter Fund Transfers, good luck with your investing!

 

[GGal]

I start my day by making a good pot of coffee at home and watch Bloomberg and CNBC. They provide important updates on financial news before the markets open. When I’m away from my PC, I can get a quick update on the market by using my Treo 700. This device also allows me to quickly access TSP for interfund transfers

Long term, stocks are hard to beat, but I just don’t just blindly stay in stocks. The cool thing about our TSP is that it allows you to transfer funds at no direct cost. If you look at my trading for Jan, you will find that I was in the G Fund for roughly half of the month. I spent only 13 trading days in stocks (10days in S, 2 days in I, 1 day in C).

The G Fund allows you to keep your money in a totally safe place while you’re waiting for the best time to move into or out of the market. My favorite fund is the S Fund, followed by the C. I still don’t fully grasp the “I” fund, but it has an outstanding history of returns also. I own a Japanese SUV and German motorcycle, but I like the idea of using my TSP S and I Funds helping American companies vice International.

I have been in the TSP since it started up in the mid 80’s. Back then, you could only do the interfund transfer once a month! It was a lot more difficult back then to have good timing than it is today. I guess the most important tip is to stay informed of financial news and always look for downward trends as an opportunity to buy stocks at a bargain price.

I will never tell anyone how to invest their funds. But, you should always max out your TSP contributions and most important, stay informed. Have a great day and good luck with your investing!

You're a politician, right? Just a guess, because Politician's are good at talking a lot without ever answering the question!

 

[350zCommTech]

When I’m away from my PC, I can get a quick update on the market by using my Treo 700. This device also allows me to quickly access TSP for interfund transfers.

Hey Aviator Guy,

You can logon to TSP.gov and make transfers with the Treo 700? What about TSPTalk.com? Can you post messages on TSPTalk with it. And it obviously has Excel functions, not just a viewer, right? And if it has internet access in the FAA academy buildings in Oklahoma City, then I've got to get one.

 

[Aviator_Guy]

Yeppers, it has web access and I don’t personally use it for my agency. I have heard it will work with a VPN. You should consult your IT FAA techs, but it should work. I’m on the road a lot with my job, so it was really important to have the ability to have internet access. I usually wait until the very last minute to make a decision to move my funds and I wanted a reliable portable device. Anyway, my sprint Treo 700 works really well throughout southern California.

Hey, my son wants to become an air traffic controller. He is in his 2nd year of college right now. I had a job offer with the FAA many years ago, but it was in a really cold place and I decided against it since I like warm weather. Have a nice day!

Go Duh Bears!?!? (My original home state is Illinois, so I’m for the bears today)

 

[Aviator_Guy]

Yeppers, it has web access and I don’t personally use it for my agency. I have heard it will work with a VPN. You should consult your IT FAA techs, but it should work. I’m on the road a lot with my job, so it was really important to have the ability to have internet access. I usually wait until the very last minute to make a decision to move my funds and I wanted a reliable portable device. Anyway, my sprint Treo 700 works really well throughout southern California.

Hey, my son wants to become an air traffic controller. He is in his 2nd year of college right now. I had a job offer with the FAA many years ago, but it was in a really cold place and I decided against it since I like warm weather. Have a nice day!

Go Duh Bears!?!? (My original home state is Illinois, so I’m for the bears today)

 

[EW_ret]

Please abide by our posting rules. Do not talk/chat in your "Aviator Guys Account" thread. The below was posted in your account thread this morning. The intial line on your allocation change was all that was needed. The discussion that followed belongs here, in your account talk thread.

100 % G as of COB 02/15/07

1st half of Feb was really tough! The “I” Fund helped put me back in the green for the month of February. I decided to jump out of the “Stock Pool” for a while and cool my jets. I will be watching closely to jump back in fully when the markets go back on sale. Enjoy your three day weekend and good luck with your TSP investing!

 

[Aviator_Guy]

Not a politician here. I just watch market news and try to stay out of stocks for most of the month. That way, you can usually get in whenever they have a major downturn trend. It’s not rocket science, it’s just common sense.

I hope you’re doing a lot better than me for February. Looks like it will only be only a 2 percent gain for the month of Feb. Unless there is a dramatic downward move in the markets, I’m going to stay in the G fund for the remainder of Feb. I spent four trading days in the “C Fund” and six trading days in the “I Fund”. Have a great day and good luck in your investing!

 

[Aviator_Guy]

It looks like a really tough day for stocks worldwide!

Mr. Greenspan’s “R” word comments yesterday, steeper than expected decline in durable goods, declines in Asian / European stocks, possible attack on the VP, existing home price down 3.1%, etc. etc. etc.

About the only good news I could find was that the American Consumer Confidence levels are now at a 5 ½ year high and that is good.

I just took a snapshot of the S&P and it was down 1.61% at 12:12pm 2/27/07!!! Anyway that you look at it, it’s going to be one exciting day. I love roller coasters, so I moved all of my funds from G to the C on the close of business today. It’s going to be a bumpy ride!! Here we go, WoooHoooo!!

 

[Aviator_Guy]

I decided to move from 100% C to 100% “I” Funds COB 2-28-07 in order to catch a possible S&P bounce from the big drop yesterday. Asian and European markets are still very nervous. For this reason, I want to buy into the “I” Fund before they rebound. My March goal is to spend more time in the “G” Fund than in stocks, but as usual, keep looking for an opportunity to buy.
.
Bloomberg shows the S&P is only up about .5% as of around Noon 2-28-07.

Good News… Positive report from Mr. Bernanke, good GDP report, 4% rebound in China’s Market, both Oil & Gold down.

Bad News… New home sales dropped 19%

February was one of the wildest stock market rides in my short memory. March is looking to get off to an outstanding start. Good luck with your TSP Investing!

 

[Aviator_Guy]

Dead cat stock market rebound?? I have never heard of that term before. But, I have heard of a “Cold Cat” in the Navy.

This is a Navy term, “Cold Cat” is when an airplane is shot off a Catapult and the system fails to generate enough power to propel the airplane to sufficient flying speed. The result is usually disastrous with the end result being the aircraft and aircrew left with a very short flight into the ocean. We had a F-14 who had a “Cold Cat” shot in 1991. This was while I was on the U.S.S. Forrestal. Both F-14 crewmembers ejected and were recovered safely. The back seat RIO got hung up on the ship’s island superstructure. I think he had a couple broken bones. He had a great view of the accident.

Anyway, the world wide stock market levels are not too good right now. I have done pretty good YTD for 2007 with 7.38% (G .35%, C 2.03%, S 2.09% and I 2.91%). I decided to get into the “I Fund” yesterday at 22.55. I kind of feel like I took a Navy “Cold Cat” shot in the dark, but I’m confident that this fund will go up before I retire in 2013.

Markets go up and markets go down. But, when you time a market trade and it turns down, there is only two ways to lose. One, if the stock price goes to zero and that will never happen. Two, if you sell your stock on fear. I prefer keeping my money out of the market and I don’t leave it blindly long term in stocks. This allows me to buy stocks when fear or bad economic news hits the street. And I like to sell only when I feel I have made a comfortable profit after they increase.

I’m ready to ride the “I Fund” Cold Cat shot I took yesterday. This old Navy F14 Radar Tech is not ready to call out, “Eject, Eject, Eject” just yet.

 

[southbeachrat]

"dead cat bounce" = anything will bounce if dropped from a high enough place.. even a dead cat

 

[Aviator_Guy]

I want the "I" Fund to defy gravity and go up... Looks like it only went down .34% today which is a lot better than yesterday! Have a great weekend!

 

[Aviator_Guy]

I decided to jump out of all stocks today, 3-7-07. My Jan (+4,3%) and Feb (+3.38%) gains were outstanding. As of yesterday, I’m down for March (-1.6%). I’m putting all of my funds into the “G” Fund and wait for an opportunity to buy again. Good luck with your TSP investing!

 

[Aviator_Guy]

2007 has been a really tough YTD for a lot of the TSP investors. This website allows us to compare and exchange investment strategy, charts, news, trends, etc, etc. I’m not sure how I found this website, but it has been a very beneficial to me and I have passed this information along to my co-workers. I have found the biggest asset is the XLS file that I downloaded since it helps me track my investment choices. It gives you a reliable source of information on your portfolio year to date and also will display how much up or down you are on each trade.

In the past, I have kept track of my investing by looking at my cash TSP balances instead of interest gained or lost for each trade. This is very important to anyone who invests their hard earned money since no one wants to lose money. But, the problem is you really don’t lose any money unless your sell your shares when they worth less than your purchase price. Unless you’re a day trader, you will lose a lot of money when you do this as a TSP investor. This is because the TSP investment system is for long term. For the majority of TSP types, our money will remain long term until we leave fed service.

For myself, I have 28 years completed and another 6 to go. Just for grins, plot the S&P 500 trend just over the last five years. Corrections cause short term loss, that is true, but not long term over history. I have been in and out of markets since 1985 and that's my personal experience.

Last year, I kept track of my daily cash TSP balance only vice interest earned over time. For this reason, when the market shifted down last summer, my wife would say, “how much did you lose today”. I would tell her in theory what it would be if I would sell at that instant. She would usually walk away shaking her head as if I were nuts. It’s really hard for some to understand that you really don’t lose money when the markets go down. You only lose when you sell in a downward trend. Sometimes you must sell as in the early stages of a correction, but use caution, because once you lose that money, it’s gone. If you understand this, you can make a lot of money in a Bear or Bull market.

I now only keep my focus on one thing, and that is to keep my monthly interest in the green interest range and as high as possible. If you look at my past performance, you will notice that I don’t buy and hold. The first half of March has been really tough, but I’m confident that it will turn out ok for my TSP account. I have managed to stay in the green YTD and that is Das Gud!!!

It’s time to dust off the BMW motorcycle and enjoy this beautiful Southern California sunny weather! Have a great day in TSP land and good luck with your investments for 2007…

 

[Dodge_Em]

Ahhh, So your bimmer is a bike.

I'm working on a car right now .... and the parts are Expensive.

I have just need the Catalytics and I'm done, then I will also enjoy cruising SoCal in my 850!

 

[Birchtree]

Even the TSP folks who inadvertently or intentionally DCAed all the way down from 2000-2002 and then inadvertently or intenionally DCAed all the way up 2003 and then accumulated in 2004, 2005, and 2006 are smelling like tulips right now. DCA is the redeemer of many a mistake. Even this correction has its merits.