Aviator Guy's Account Talk

[Silverbird]

I was really close to pulling the trigger on getting back in stocks (C or I) this morning. One report of a huge terrorist attack in China that’s not being reported caught my eye. Being so close to the games, it makes you wonder if they have something planned down the road when the world focus is on the games later this week.

Terrorist attack is by seperatists in the Ugurar (spelling?) area to the far NW. Area is in contention since they were not part of China until around 60 years ago, and inhabitants are on the whole not of Chinese decent. Probably attacking now because of international press coverage; more interested in embarassing/provoking Beijing than having something against the Olympic games. They might want to do something at the Games; however since their grievance is strictly local they would have to send someone to one of the Olympic venue areas to carry it out, which would not be easy. Not to say that the Chinese should ignore it as a non-possibility, but they have already (over)reacted with more security in the Olympic games areas.

 

[Aviator_Guy]

Russian Tanks and warplanes attack neighboring Georgia?? It sounds like something out of a Tom Clancy book!! I was thinking about jumping into stocks, but I’m easing off the trigger until I get more info on this situation.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/08/georgia.ossetia/index.html

 

[Aviator_Guy]

I jumped out of stocks at 21.26 (Jul 31) and decided to jump back in today (08-08-08). The Euro is down over 1.5% which is making my dollars worth a lot more for the buy in today. I think the Euro is a little undervalued now. I just hope it reverses to my advantage after I jump back into the “I” fund!

The “I” fund closed out yesterday at 20.89 and I had to run the TSP database back to November 2006 to reach that share price!! By getting my funds out of the “I” fund COB July 31st, it looks like I saved myself approx 2% loss had I just stayed in the “I” fund vice jumping out to the “G” on July 31.

I feel pretty comfortable getting back in the “I” just below 21.00 per share, but still a little nervous. The Russian military move against Georgia, Mini Me in Iran, Olympics, Wild Oil price moves, Hurricane season, Wild moves in the value of the Euro, etc. etc…. I guess I could have just stay in the “G” fund, but earning .01% per day just doesn’t trip my trigger… Good luck with your TSP investments!!

 

[Aviator_Guy]

I decided to jump out of stocks today due to Hurricane Gustav. I’ve decided it’s just a little too risky to stay in the stocks right now. I have enclosed a Hurricane tracker that said it might reach CAT3!!!


PS... These IFT limits are killing our retirement accounts!!!

http://www.hurricanetrack.com/Java2/westatl.html

 

[Show-me]

PS... These IFT limits are killing our retirement accounts!!!

http://www.hurricanetrack.com/Java2/westatl.html

Oh yes!

 

[Aviator_Guy]

I can remember just days prior to Katrina watching New Orleans CNN showing clips of locals who didn’t seem alarmed. At the time, I was thinking this is really odd. I just pray they are better prepared on this time around. I live in Los Angeles, but I’m making a list of useful items I can take in case I’m deployed. After checking the Weather Bug Tracker and watching the weather channel, this is going to be another big one!


http://community.weatherbug.com/Hurricanetracker/stormtracker.html

 

[Aviator_Guy]

Hurricane IKE is now a CAT 4 and the news media isnt saying much about it... I'm staying out of stocks for now...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

 

[Silverbird]

I just hope Hanna, Ike and Josephine don't decide to form a connected conga line into the U.S.:worried:

 

[luv2read]

I just hope Hanna, Ike and Josephine don't decide to form a connected conga line into the U.S.:worried:

Actually that might not be a bad thing as hurricanes need warm water to grow and intensify, and the right steering currents (air). When a storm passes over water, it stirs it up, causing "mixing" of the cooler lower water with the upper warm water, thus cooling the sea surface temperature. The next storm to pass over the area won't have the benefit of the nice warm sea surface temp the first one did, and won't be as likely to intensify. Kat-Rita was unusual as they followed so closely behind each other, but notice they did not follow identical paths into the GOM, Rita was already a monster and moved west, avoiding the colder water Katrina stirred up. Louisiana got a double whammy with those two, Katrina to the east and Rita to the west. The entire northern TX, LA, MS, AL gulf coast was ravaged and refineries were shut down from TX to MS.

Our resident MB weatherguys can explain storms much better - they're just a hobby for me.

 

[Aviator_Guy]

This is an excellent link... After you bring it up, click on LOOP (120 hour)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/143312.shtml?tswind120#contents

 

[Steadygain]

Hurricane IKE is now a CAT 4 and the news media isnt saying much about it... I'm staying out of stocks for now...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

The MEDIA is heavily controlled - which is unfortunate.

Truth is Global Warming is a FACT and these storms will get more frequent and hit with greater force.

If I bail in the near future - it will be CAT 4s behind my decision.

OIL - seems to be the only real concern at this point and I think we're largely protected with this storm. But for now the Federal Government is still expected to pay for the bulk of Natural Disasters - and until the States being damaged "Pay the Bill" - all of us are in trouble with every major event.

 

[Aviator_Guy]

Being a federal employee, I have moved around the good ole USA a lot (IL, TN, CA, WA, GA, and VA), currently in Los Angeles and it looks like I will reach my MRA 56 here in California. I can remember going through a couple Hurricanes when I was living in Virginia in the late 80’s and early 90’s. After riding out a hurricane, I was amazed at how much money the feds would pour into such places at the outer banks in North Carolina by building up their beaches after getting washed out to sea. Then, I transferred to the Mid West and went through a major flood affecting many farmers along the Mississippi. At the time, I thought well, the feds will probably help those farmers rebuild, but the feds didn’t seem to help them much at all. At the time, I was thinking, wow, they can help those rich folks living too close to the Atlantic beaches, but not to the Midwest farmers? I don’t expect the feds to solve all of our problems when it comes to disasters, but it just seemed to be a double standard at the time.

 

[Steadygain]

don’t expect the feds to solve all of our problems when it comes to disasters, but it just seemed to be a double standard at the time.

Here I can guarantee the Feds did way more than you realize.

The times are changing and nothing will bring about quicker changes than Global Warming. Places that are below sea level - marked with huge disasters - and guaranteed to get hard hit again WILL REBUILD AT THEIR OWN EXPENSE. The State will take over expenses and Insurance Companies will refuse to get involved. But I'm simply reflecting on future events. For now everyone will tap the Fed for everything they can.

 

[Corepuncher]

Truth is Global Warming is a FACT and these storms will get more frequent and hit with greater force.

I don't necessarily believe that. Hurricanes were much more frequent in the 1930's-1950's than they are today...and that is even without "inflation" due to more modern observing systems.

Also, Hurricanes exist to get rid of massive heat imbalances between the lower latitudes and farther North. If global warming continues, won't that warm the poles more and work to get rid of the imbalance?

 

[Steadygain]

I don't necessarily believe that. Hurricanes were much more frequent in the 1930's-1950's than they are today...and that is even without "inflation" due to more modern observing systems.

Also, Hurricanes exist to get rid of massive heat imbalances between the lower latitudes and farther North. If global warming continues, won't that warm the poles more and work to get rid of the imbalance?

My father doesn't believe it either....

It's funny because the present Administration sent "the experts" out to research this and provide the real data. They did that and guess what - THEY WERE BARRED FROM SHARING THIS INFORMATION AND FROM THE VERY TOP - IT IS "LOCKED INFORMATION TO THE PUBLIC" AND NO WAY IN HELL IS THAT GETTING OUT TO SOCIETY.

My advise - watch Gore's Movie concerning this matter and look at the objectable data and how it's panned out over the years. He is merely reflecting undeniable DATA that's been collected over the years.

But what you're saying reminds me of Birchtree - everyone else is saying ...... but he says WE ARE IN A BULL MARKET.

 

[nasa1974]

My father doesn't believe it either....

It's funny because the present Administration sent "the experts" out to research this and provide the real data. They did that and guess what - THEY WERE BARRED FROM SHARING THIS INFORMATION AND FROM THE VERY TOP - IT IS "LOCKED INFORMATION TO THE PUBLIC" AND NO WAY IN HELL IS THAT GETTING OUT TO SOCIETY.

My advise - watch Gore's Movie concerning this matter and look at the objectable data and how it's panned out over the years. He is merely reflecting undeniable DATA that's been collected over the years.

But what you're saying reminds me of Birchtree - everyone else is saying ...... but he says WE ARE IN A BULL MARKET.

I believe that the human presence is adding to the increase in overall global warming. However we have been tracking and recording weather for just a small percentage of time. The earth has gone through many hot and cold spells without our help. Who is to say that this is not a normal weather cycle.

 

[Steadygain]

I believe that the human presence is adding to the increase in overall global warming. However we have been tracking and recording weather for just a small percentage of time. The earth has gone through many hot and cold spells without our help. Who is to say that this is not a normal weather cycle.

NASA, in your field, you're probably a lot more qualified than me to address this question. My overall thought related to the Global Environment - and Global Warming - compares with smoking.

To me - smoking is total trash - there is nothing good about it. The longer a person engages in this practice the worst it effects their body and destroys the entire system. In this example all we need to do is replace our body with "the Earth" - and smoking to the vast pollutants we fill it's astmosphere with.

To me they are one in the same - it is absolutely impossible to continually add toxants to a system without damaging it.

BTW - Aviator Guy - sorry for steeling your thread

 

[Aviator_Guy]

I believe the use of fossil fuel is causing global warming. So, I’m leaning to reduce our dependence on imported oil and start moving toward clean energy. Bring back the tax incentives for buying Hybrids. Bring back the tax incentives for home solar and wind turbines. Bring back tax incentives for improving home heating and cooling efficiency. My home state of California still has a few state incentives, but almost all of the federal tax incentives have gone away in recent years.

I also think we need to start building more nuclear power plants. I worked on top of eight nuke reactors while serving on the USS Enterprise and I know it’s safe. The industry now has modern reactor designs that automatically shut down with loss of coolant, operator error, external hardware failure, etc….

Preventing new offshore drilling off our American coasts and inside Alaska makes absolutely no sense. The feds have kept these restrictions for decades and we need to tap it now. History shows most major spills occur not at the oil rigs at sea or inland, but in sea tanker transport. It makes absolutely no common sense to send our petro dollars to foreign countries, especially those that are not friendly to the USA. Some claim that it would take many years to tap American oil to make any difference. That’s true, but better late than never!!!

Note: And oh yeah, bring back the fed tax incentives to those folks who purchased a Hybrid in 2008. I purchased one and I put 8K miles on it so far. It’s worth more right now here in Los Angeles than what I paid for it in April. I’m not selling it until they come out with the plug in version in 2010 or 2011 which will get close to 100 mpg!!!

 

[pigeonguy]

/soapbox on

I don't believe it either (that humans are causing the GW).

There is a ton of data that demonstrates algore is a bloviating gas bag who has no clue how to even spell science let alone discuss it intelligently.

Was there warming, yes. Has there been any since 1998 or 2003 (depending on how one looks at the data), no. This year temps went in the tank.

It is much more likely that we are going into a cool period which is much more harmful to humans and the rest of the ecosystem than warming is. Precipitation will be reduced during this cooling period, growing seasons will be shorter and less land will be suitable for growing foodstuffs. Hopefully the "idiots-in-charge" will knock off using corn as a fuel source and keep it in the food supply.

The Theory, that is all it is, puts certain physical characteristics into play. One of those is an increase in temps at mid altitude in the tropics. It is the GW "signature." This is missing. When something refutes a theory that negates the theory --- in real science. But climatology isn't. They just make up more ad hoc hypotheses to cover the fact that their pet theory doesn't work.

Probably the biggest mistake they make is they fail to realize that most control systems (and one can look at climate as a chaotic non-linear system) have negative feedback loops to ensure that the system doesn't go out of control. For the climate that is the ocean. As temperatures rise, the ocean stores more heat, more water evaporates, water vapor forms clouds, clouds have high albedo reflecting more sunlight up out of the atmosphere, and temps cool down.

It CO2 really did what the theory states, the earth would still be a hotter, humider place as CO2 has been at times in the past 20 times the amount it is now in the atmosphere.

All of those "projections" and statements that algore and the GW hysterics put out are based on software models. The models are developed based on the assumptions the builders made. Guess what kind of answers one will get out of a software program written in that manner? Right, GIGO.

There is very little truth in AIT.

/soapbox off

mark - waiting for a spot to jump back into the market

 

[RonUSPSretired]

I fully agree PG. The burning of fossil fuels may have a localized impact, but is miniscule when compared to the warming and cooling cycles that take place over centuries of time. It's easy to mislead people when one like AG conveniatly leaves out the fact that it's just another theory!:notrust:

/soapbox on

I don't believe it either (that humans are causing the GW).

There is a ton of data that demonstrates algore is a bloviating gas bag who has no clue how to even spell science let alone discuss it intelligently.

Was there warming, yes. Has there been any since 1998 or 2003 (depending on how one looks at the data), no. This year temps went in the tank.

It is much more likely that we are going into a cool period which is much more harmful to humans and the rest of the ecosystem than warming is. Precipitation will be reduced during this cooling period, growing seasons will be shorter and less land will be suitable for growing foodstuffs. Hopefully the "idiots-in-charge" will knock off using corn as a fuel source and keep it in the food supply.

The Theory, that is all it is, puts certain physical characteristics into play. One of those is an increase in temps at mid altitude in the tropics. It is the GW "signature." This is missing. When something refutes a theory that negates the theory --- in real science. But climatology isn't. They just make up more ad hoc hypotheses to cover the fact that their pet theory doesn't work.

Probably the biggest mistake they make is they fail to realize that most control systems (and one can look at climate as a chaotic non-linear system) have negative feedback loops to ensure that the system doesn't go out of control. For the climate that is the ocean. As temperatures rise, the ocean stores more heat, more water evaporates, water vapor forms clouds, clouds have high albedo reflecting more sunlight up out of the atmosphere, and temps cool down.

It CO2 really did what the theory states, the earth would still be a hotter, humider place as CO2 has been at times in the past 20 times the amount it is now in the atmosphere.

All of those "projections" and statements that algore and the GW hysterics put out are based on software models. The models are developed based on the assumptions the builders made. Guess what kind of answers one will get out of a software program written in that manner? Right, GIGO.

There is very little truth in AIT.

/soapbox off

mark - waiting for a spot to jump back into the market