Appatites Account Talk

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Appatite said:
So? What's the likelyhood of getting back that 1% loss from yesterday, today?

I'm just hoping (not a 4 letter word). :D
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I sure don't see the S fund gaining 1.25% to make up for yesterdays loss. :notrust: I'm hoping that we do not see more than a .50% loss today. :sick:
 
Well that was a great vacation I had. And it is great to be back.

I see that sitting in the s fund has paid off while I have been away.
 
I see that we have some previous big winners still sitting in the S fund. I am as well. I had been at pos 7% and am now at minus 10% for the year. I have to wonder when it is time to pull it all outnand sit in the G fund. In 2008 I lost about 29%. I ca not wait that long this time around.

So when is the time to go? -10% or -30%. If the Dow breaks back to 6500 again it will be real painful.
 
Well, last week I made a decision that I would exit from the S fund between S&P 1200 and 1220. S&P today sits above 1200. I am about70% positive that I should exit tomorrow IF we keep heading upwards. I would or I am expecting that this trend is going to be broken downward to retest the bottom.

I really should exit tomorrow.

But today is not tomorrow so I will wait and see.
 
So, I moved 90%G and kept 10%S.

It is the right choice to make. There are all the death crosses, bear flags, 3-5 day relief rally and trouble on the horizon.

At noon today everything was still looking upwards for the market, as in it was climbing. An hour later and we are tanking. Volitility is coming to a theater near you. I am waiting on the big drop. I hope. Yes I used the four letter word.
 
It has been raining sunshine for over a week now. I was hoping to get to S&P 1020 before a re-entry. But instead Bernanke opened his big effing mouth. This normally, if not 99% of the time, drives the markets into the ground. Sure, I was not in the S fund so it had to have an 8% gain. Fine. Effed once again. There really is no reason for this market uptrend. All the news has been bad in the last 5-7 days yet the market goes up.

All indicators that Tom, jth and uptrend post show downward movement. (I'm not blaming them - I actually agree with them.)

I can not take any more of this downward movement though.

So I have one IFT remaining for the month. I will move to a position of 70% F and 30% S from 90 G and 10 S by COB unless I start to see the bottom falling out. This is not going to happen by noon today. If it does happen it will start to tank around 1 PM so we TSPers don't have the opportunity to react. Hopefully the market shifts again downwards this weekend. By the 6th or 7th I would have to decide if I am all in or all out.

I am fairly frustrated at this point, having decided to start paying attention to my money and joining a site dedicated to TSPers. Only to find out I have done far better in the past when I didn't know anything. I may just go back to buy and hold where I do far less damage to myself.
 
As Leslie Gore would say; it's your party and you can cry if you want, cry if your want to, cry if you want to - I would cry too if it happened to you.
 
Appatite said:
I am fairly frustrated at this point, having decided to start paying attention to my money and joining a site dedicated to TSPers. Only to find out I have done far better in the past when I didn't know anything. I may just go back to buy and hold where I do far less damage to myself.
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That's why I threw in the towel and bailed IN yesterday. The markets consistently do the unexpected and it pains me to give up a significant percentage of gains sitting at the station. I may be done doing transfers, I've lost too much trying to get cute because I'm too greedy. I was up about $2 a share in the downswing, and bought back in at .47/share loss :mad:. Stayed out too damn long waiting for the "re-test"...

No matter who you listen to, half are always wrong.
 
Well, COB today I am 100% S fund.

I may have jumped the gun by a day or two but better an early entry than none at all. Which is what happened last time the spx hit 1024 when I wanted 1020. Completely missed the boat.
 
I am not all that happy with my decision today to stay 100% S. I was all logged into the TSP, I had even changed the transfer allocation so it was 30%s, 40% I, 10% C and 20% F but I could not pull the trigger.

Tomorrow is another day. I hope I survive it.
 
Appatite said:
I am not all that happy with my decision today to stay 100% S. I was all logged into the TSP, I had even changed the transfer allocation so it was 30%s, 40% I, 10% C and 20% F but I could not pull the trigger.

Tomorrow is another day. I hope I survive it.
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I pulled the trigger but it didn't process in time for COB today so I cancelled the order. Looks like we are in the same boat. Good luck.
 
It is starting to look like COB yesterday was the right move. I didn't pull that trigger because we had 11 more trading days for this month. I hate being out for that long with no way to get back in.

Maybe today will rebound by noon. I think if the markets are flat or in the green I will be moving out. If down, I may have to hold my breath for a while.
 
Well, I absolutely had to pull out of the S fund. No other realisticly sane choice for me. I have been down this year as much as 18%. Moving out of the S fund today, if the market does not tank later on this afternoon, will leave me with a 4% or more gain for the month. I am certain that later in the month this thing may have more steam but I can't afford to take more risk when I might have that 4% gain already.

So I am now 50% G, 35% F, 10% S and 5% I. I left 15% in S and I just to sort of play with. If they go up, great and if down, it wont ruin me.
 
I don't know what that means?

The S fund went up .018 cents (2 cents) but the SPX was up 7 and the DOW was up 70.

Sometimes I just don't get it.
 
Good question Appatite and valid question about EFA SteelSaving. Good answer JP. Having looked in to this in the past, I found a few things that may or may not still apply. We really have no idea who owns what or manages what these days.
　
The EFA quote may or may not follow the EAFE index fund depending on what magic the managers worked.
Here is what you get when you search MSCI EAFE:
　
The MSCI EAFE Index (Europe, Australasia, Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the US & Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of the following 22 developed market country indices: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.

When you go to www.tsp.gov and look at what they have to say about I fund, They reference Morgan Stanley.

Yet if you dig deeper you find this:

https://www.tsp.gov/PDF/formspubs/IFund.pdf

https://www.tsp.gov/PDF/formspubs/oc10-16.pdf

It seems like Blackrock International still has it's fingers in the TSP. Dig as deep as you like, the truth is out there.

Rest assured that the FRTIB https://www.tsp.gov/PDF/formspubs/oc10-16.pdf has your best interests at heart.

This thing is what we have as part of the three legs of retirement. Rest assured the FRTIB has your best interests in mind.

Breathe deeply. The grass is green. The sky is blue. Repeat the mantra.

the FRTIB has your best interests in mind
the FRTIB has your best interests in mind
the FRTIB has your best interests in mind

I am being a bit facetious. Welcome to the world of trying to understand the biggest part of your retirement plan.

Good luck.
PO
 
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