Appatites Account Talk

[Appatite]

On the brighter side, I have already lost $100 today. Yippee.

My wife apparently wrote a check out of an account she should not have. It was a big check so she didn't want to use the usual account. So we had insufficient funds. Cost was $32 for them to cover the check. Then she figured as long as that check book was handy, she wrote two more checks for $20 each. And each one of those checks bounced too. So the bank charged me $32 for each one of those. Total of $96.

I love today.

 

[Cactus]

That is all nice and fine, but I have plans to go on vacation next week, so If I leave the account S fund hoping for a rebound next week, I will have very little time or ability to make a change. So today or tomorrow I have to move or let it sit and hope for the best by the following monday. The way this thing is going by then I will have lost another 6%. I can't absorb another 6% loss. But I'll be honest, I know that if I move out of S fund and into G fund, next week will see a 5% gain. Which still means a loss of 11% for me.

That's a tough one. I jumped to G towards the end of April for just that reason but just ended up locking in my losses. I've been trying to make it up since then and have only been losing more. I don't know what you should do, but I see you have joined me down in the 600 Club. Even though you are still above me, you don't want to stay there. The question as I see it is what can you afford to lose? Even if the market does spring up for a day there is no guaranty it will continue. If you aren't there to take you're profits before the market does, you could be worse off than now.

You may want to go contrarian to what I think given my standing & track record. As for me, I'm staying in for now. I figured I already taken the biggest part of the loss. Then again I don't know what I am doing.

 

[Appatite]

Sticky pants, sticky pants, sticky pants.

Ahww, crap. I knew I shoulda gotten out of this eob yesterday.

There's no place like home. There's no place like home.

Anybody seen my red slippers?

 

[Appatite]

Well, sticky pants has helped me out for the last what?, 3 days. I am now back to a positive 2.75% for the year. Whoopee.

I am now having that feeling again though, that today, by cob, would be the time to pull out once again prior to the end of the month. So far I have not ever acted on this feeling and I have been burned each time. Had I gotten out prior to the end of each of these past four months I'd probably be at plus 7% or more.

Once again, though I have this feeling and will probably ignore it. I will stay in S.

All other indicators say stay in it or buy it.

 

[Sensei]

Well, sticky pants has helped me out for the last what?, 3 days. I am now back to a positive 2.75% for the year. Whoopee.

I am now having that feeling again though, that today, by cob, would be the time to pull out once again prior to the end of the month. So far I have not ever acted on this feeling and I have been burned each time. Had I gotten out prior to the end of each of these past four months I'd probably be at plus 7% or more.

Once again, though I have this feeling and will probably ignore it. I will stay in S.

All other indicators say stay in it or buy it.

I know that feeling. I acted on it yesterday, and screwed myself out of what seems to be a no brainer gain of at least a percent today. Actually, if you've been in S for the end of Feb, March, April, and May, you made money on the last 3 to 4 consecutive days each month. It's how the next month starts that has been tricky.

 

[nasa1974]

I know that feeling. I acted on it yesterday, and screwed myself out of what seems to be a no brainer gain of at least a percent today. Actually, if you've been in S for the end of Feb, March, April, and May, you made money on the last 3 to 4 consecutive days each month. It's how the next month starts that has been tricky.

May and June started out real bad. So the beginning of July could be scary. Then you throw in the holiday. However, July has been a good month for making some money. So it is going to be a tough call on how to use any IFT's you may have. Good luck.

 

[Appatite]

Hope today finishes strong. But too many indicators are telling me to get out.

Moved out 60% G and 40% F. Why not?

Probably just see what starts up next week and get right back into S.

 

[Appatite]

Ok. Just wanted to add this in here.

I moved out of the S for several reasons.

Fear.

Ok, not so much that kind of fear.

Not in any order.

Q2/H1 is over.
QE2 is ended.
Buy the rumor sell the news. Greece, debt ceiling etc.
S&P hitting resistance level.
Holiday weekend.
TSP autotraders jumping ship. (realized this at about 11:30, after I decided to jump ship)
The 3/4 day bounce gave me back a lot of my "losses". Down maybe 1-2% for the month but back up 4-5% for the year.

So no matter what the outcome in the next few days, I'm good with my decision to move out of S and into G/F.

Just the right move for me. Expected short term move out unless the sky starts falling.

 

[nnuut]

Take the money and run my man, works for me!:d

 

[Appatite]

Well I took that money and then the train left without me. This happens.

I still think I made the right move one week ago.

But here I sit at 4% for the year when I could have been at 7%.

So I can see no reason why I should keep waiting. I am 95% certain that by COB today I will be 100% S again.

PLEASE, SOMEBODY STOP ME.

Tell me why I should wait 2,3,5 or more days through his thing.

When I got out one week ago I really thought I'd be out 2-3 days for a small dip. No dip occurred so, is it DOW 13,000 and S&P 1370 plus? I think it is. Does anybody see a large dip ahead before we get there? I'm happy to get in for the difference and use the 2nd IFT to get back out.

 

[GUCHI]

app
i did the same thing you did, except i kept 25% in S fund just in case. i 2 want back in so i will be lookn 2 see if it looks good to go 100%. the S fund has really shrugged off just about everything that has been thrown at it, shoulda woulda coulda held my 100% S position. good luck to all.

 

[Appatite]

This might sway me away from into the S.

http://news.yahoo.com/jobs-seen-boosting-hopes-economic-revival-040919278.html

 

[GUCHI]

This might sway me away from into the S.

app
does this mean your thinking of moving into S or moving out?

 

[Appatite]

This might sway me away from into the S.

app
does this mean your thinking of moving into S or moving out?

Staying out for today. See if a 2 or 3-5 day pullback is in order after this little report.

I can't afford to lock in any more losses right now.

 

[Appatite]

I'm getting pretty spooked when it comes to this jobs data that comes out once a month.

I don't think I am a conspiracy theorist type but when I add 2 and 2 together, well...

So about a week ago, analysts (who supposedly know what they are talking about) were telling us that new jobs were anywhere between 90,000 and 110,000 for this month. The markets starts to soar all last week. Recovery is on everyones minds and the small investors are being pulled in, right? Then about the day before the actual report comes out, thursday, the analysts come out and say they expect the number is somewhere around 157,000 because there is this new better method of determining this. OK, I'm always for a better mouse trap too. More people buy into the market. Friday morning comes and BAM we are all faced 19,000 new jobs. WTF happened here? How can professional analysts be off by this much, uunless something else is going on? Me, you and most other people would lose their jobs if we were off by +500%. But, like I said, build a better mouse trap. And I think they, whoever they are, did just that. They sucked the little guy back in so they could pullback and reap higher profits.

The idea behind "buy the rumor sell the news", should not be about artifically inflating the rumor to fleace Mr. and Mrs America. But that is what I am seeing. Anybody else?

 

[Sensei]

I'm getting pretty spooked when it comes to this jobs data that comes out once a month.

I don't think I am a conspiracy theorist type but when I add 2 and 2 together, well...

So about a week ago, analysts (who supposedly know what they are talking about) were telling us that new jobs were anywhere between 90,000 and 110,000 for this month. The markets starts to soar all last week. Recovery is on everyones minds and the small investors are being pulled in, right? Then about the day before the actual report comes out, thursday, the analysts come out and say they expect the number is somewhere around 157,000 because there is this new better method of determining this. OK, I'm always for a better mouse trap too. More people buy into the market. Friday morning comes and BAM we are all faced 19,000 new jobs. WTF happened here? How can professional analysts be off by this much, uunless something else is going on? Me, you and most other people would lose their jobs if we were off by +500%. But, like I said, build a better mouse trap. And I think they, whoever they are, did just that. They sucked the little guy back in so they could pullback and reap higher profits.

The idea behind "buy the rumor sell the news", should not be about artifically inflating the rumor to fleace Mr. and Mrs America. But that is what I am seeing. Anybody else?

Appatite - I enjoy reading your posts. I can always seem to identify with something you have to say. The only thing that has me doubting your conspiracy theory is the fact that Friday's losses weren't that bad (esp. for the S fund), and buying actually picked up in the afternoon. Next week will be interesting. I'm in S, betting the week ends green.

 

[Appatite]

I felt I had to make the move today. I was looking for 3-5 days down. I am pretty much behind the 8 ball with only a 4% gain for the year. Means I have to take a more risky move, right? Hopefully it pays off cuz if this thing goes up 2-3%, I will hopefully get back out.

As a side note, I was also shooting for the S&P 1285 plus/minus. (My guess) But couldn't wait it out.


<added> And yes it does scare me that 65% of the top 50 autotrackers are in G/F.

 

[Appatite]

So?

Sooooo!

Today I see that 70% of the top 50 autotraders are sitting in either G or F. Does not fill me with confidence in my decision. Which is probably why at 11:45 AM I kept hearing in my head "It's time to pull out early." And THAT is never a good idea to have run through your mind.

So, I didn't do anything.

Just sat there looking at the screen as the Dow is up 120 plus and the S&P is up 15 plus. Hoping that tomorrow will also be another up day or that today ends up and that I see others jump on into this pool. Someone throw me the life preserver.

 

[Birchtree]

Coitus interruptus was never that much fun for me - but it does teach discipline and sacrifice. Making no decision is still a decision.

 

[jpcavin]

Coitus interruptus was never that much fun for me - but it does teach discipline and sacrifice. Making no decision is still a decision.

Birch, you sure make for some lively conversation! :toung: