Anyone know if we are going to have access to any Bitcoin ETF through the window?

[BPASDC]

I have been investing in BIT for a number of years now and would the opportunity to put some of my TSP money in one of the BIT funds. Anyone know if that is going to be an option?

 

[william2754]

The only bitcoin related fund you can buy right now that I know of is Bitcoin Strategy ProFund Investor (BTCFX). The fund seeks to provide capital appreciation by investing all or substantially all of its assets through managed exposure to bitcoin futures contracts.

 

[Bullitt]

BTCFX doesn't track BTC-USD very good at all. In the past year it has underperformed by over 40%.

 

[BPASDC]

BTCFX doesn't track BTC-USD very good at all. In the past year it has underperformed by over 40%.

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You are correct it doesn't track very well at all but it's the only real exposure to Bitcoin that I can find in the window. So far this year I'm getting very close to 50% with BTCFX. With the new administration, I see a very bright future with bitcoin.

 

[OkiDoki]

I am very surprised that there is not more discussion here about BTCFX.

Yes, it does lag the performance of actual BTC.
Yes, it is not intended as a long term set it and forget it type investment.

However, during the BTC bull phase it does extremely well compared to any of the traditional non-MFW TSP options. I'm currently up more than 17% on the portion of my TSP balance that I put into BTCFX at the very end of March 2025.

 

[tsptalk]

I mentioned it in my commentary a few days ago. My wife put her 25% max into BTCFX about 6 months ago with no regrets, but I never did. I play the bitcoin ETFs.

It's certainly worthy of discussion.

Why do you think it is not "set and forget?"

I know why things like 3X leveraged ETFs are dangerous to set and forget because of some high fees, but is there particular reason you wouldn't do that here - except for maybe the high volatility? Are the fees going to eat at it as well?

Thanks, and welcome!

 

[OkiDoki]

I mentioned it in my commentary a few days ago. My wife put her 25% max into BTCFX about 6 months ago with no regrets, but I never did. I play the bitcoin ETFs.

It's certainly worthy of discussion.

Why do you think it is not "set and forget?"

I know why things like 3X leveraged ETFs are dangerous to set and forget because of some high fees, but is there particular reason you wouldn't do that here - except for maybe the high volatility? Are the fees going to eat at it as well?

Thanks, and welcome!

Until it is proven that the BTC four year cycle is over I will rotate out of BTCFX in October of this year. I could be missing out on some growth by doing so, but I don't mind.

Growing institutional investment in BTC via the ETFs could mean the four year cycle is a thing of the past, but if everyone is thinking "this time is different" the market has a funny way of proving us wrong.

I'm not worried about the fees. I put 25% of my TSP balance in as well, so incurring fees from a trade or two in a couple of years time is noise.

That said, I think the volatility of any potential drawdown will be somewhat muted compared to previous cycles.