anthony's Account Talk

[anthony]

This is my first Account Talk posting, so I can be tracked in 2008. Some 'philosophy' notes ...

I am not a frequent trader and prefer to stay 100% invested, given my newbie level understanding of the markets and a feeling that missing the gains is riskier than chancing the drops. However, I will occasionally shift some portion of my account among the C-S-I Funds based on articles I read, analysis and 'feel.' For indicators, I enjoy watching several psychology indicators, and compare those to others indicators posted by Tom, Griffin, Birchtree, and other moderators.

I spent much of the latter half of 2007 in the I Fund, and only recently shifted to the C and S Funds in early December. To start off 2008, I am returning to an allocation of 50% C, 50% I (COB 071231) for three reasons: 1) Bearish sentiment close to its 2007 low points, 2) I think we are going to see a test of the USD low benefiting the I Fund and to some extent the C Fund, and 3) You just don't want to be out of the market in January - strongest month of the year.

Good Luck and Happy New Year to All!

 

[Show-me]

Good luck Anthony!

 

[anthony]

My decision at this point is that I will do more harm than good by pulling out, by sealing in losses that are already steep. For now, the losses remain on paper. The plan for now will be to remain invested and do what I can to max out TSP and Roth contributions in the first half of the year, vice the second.

Who knows how this will turn out, but I don't think it will last as long as in the past. With technology and the internet, investing time is compressed now. A turnaround that took years in the past will take months. Strong bearish sentiment lasting near two months has put a lot of money on the sidelines. There's going to be a lot of good stocks on sale this year. Time to spend some money!

 

[Birchtree]

anthony,

If you max out TSP for this year you can put in $44K - you can gain three or four years ahead of the game providing you can't spend the money on camel milk. Stay safe.

 

[anthony]

If you max out TSP for this year you can put in $44K - you can gain three or four years ahead of the game providing you can't spend the money on camel milk. Stay safe.

Birch - I have thought of that, and with events since 2003 I'm at a point where more than half of my TSP account and self-directed Roth are CZTE. But unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on how you look at it), I will soon be making a location update on my profile. With only two months counting for combat zone in 2008 it appears my max will be more like 18-20 this year. There's always 2009 though! ...

 

[anthony]

http://biz.yahoo.com/cnbc/080129/22883662.html?.v=1 ... "As Darren Rovell pointed out, the market historically has outperformed when an original NFL team wins the Super Bowl and lags when an orginal AFL team wins."

I don't care if the market drops, I'm cheering for the Pats anyway! New England's in a Bull Run and they're gonna knock out all the resistance in New York!

:nuts::nuts:

 

[anthony]

Location updated ... finally!

This was my third tour in Iraq since the invasion and my second in Fallujah. I wish I could show you all the dramatic changes we have seen. From me and on behalf of my fellow Marines, thank you for all of your support.

Semper Fidelis,

 

[anthony]

I'm putting this out for some ideas from the crowd:

I'm considering buying into the fractured real estate industry sector this year inside my Roth. My technique would not be lump-sum bottom picking, but just to DCA in an equal amount each month throughout 2008 and maybe 2009. I'm comfortable in not having a portfolio that is too one-dimensional, given my and my wife's other current retirement account distributions.

I am divided between the following options:

• A REIT fund, possibly the Vanguard REIT Index, VGSIX.
• A Real Estate-focused mutual fund, possibly Ken Heebner's CGMRX.
• Individual stocks that are linked to the industry. Some possibles include: JLL, LOOP, STC, RNR, & ORH.

Any thoughts or suggestions? Maybe a good opportunity I'm not thinking of? Thanks.

 

[rokid]

Anthony,

VGSIX was down +16% last year. Therefore, it might be a better buy than CGMRX. CGMRX has been posting big returns over the last few years and may be ready for a mean reversion.

The following quote is from Marketwatch: "Sjoblom (

CGMRX 30.89, +0.98, +3.3%) , noting that the fund's hot returns are not sustainable and its volatility nerve-wracking despite its attractive long-term record."

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...05F-6B00-4F09-BDCB-4F5AFFCA4766}&siteid=yhoof

-----Jim

 

[presskh]

I'm putting this out for some ideas from the crowd:

I'm considering buying into the fractured real estate industry sector this year inside my Roth. My technique would not be lump-sum bottom picking, but just to DCA in an equal amount each month throughout 2008 and maybe 2009. I'm comfortable in not having a portfolio that is too one-dimensional, given my and my wife's other current retirement account distributions.

I am divided between the following options:

• A REIT fund, possibly the Vanguard REIT Index, VGSIX.
• A Real Estate-focused mutual fund, possibly Ken Heebner's CGMRX.
• Individual stocks that are linked to the industry. Some possibles include: JLL, LOOP, STC, RNR, & ORH.

Any thoughts or suggestions? Maybe a good opportunity I'm not thinking of? Thanks.

This Vanguard REIT might be a good dollar-cost average down investment. It all depends on how much you believe the real estate bubble deflation has already been factored into the market. I owned VGSIX last year (bought at $24, watched it go up to about $28, and sold when it went back down to $24). I think it has been as low as about $18 recently. This fund invests only in commercial real estate and makes its money off of rental fees from the property it has acquired. From what I've read, commercial real estate is lagging residential real estate, with regard to the effects of the subprime mess, and may yet fall further. I am also looking to get back in this fund but plan on waiting another 3 months or so to see what shakes out in the commercial real estate sector.

 

[Birchtree]

anthony,

Try and stay with individual stocks in the Roth IRA. They will pay dividends every three months and it's the dividend reinvestment policy you should be interested in. I acquired 52 different issues for my daughter from the same toxic waste dump you are thinking about shopping in - they have already made some upward moves. I have another 40 stocks on the list that I'll slowly acquire over time. She'll be deployed again in December so we're setting up the mechanism now for her to build her base - rather than putting her money in a savings account. Some of the stocks on the list: NRF, VLY, WRI, MNI, BXS, MPG, CLI, KIM, JRT, IFC, IRC, IMB, IAR. We've only had one dividend suspension so far - par for the course.

 

[anthony]

AAII Investor Sentiment spiked to 1.24 this week. That's actually not a generally preferred sell signal of 2.00, but I think it is notable as the highest bull rating so far this year, after recent weeks in the 0.45 range. That 'dumb money' indicator, combined with the 'smart money' indicator that Tom discussed in today's comments has me looking at a little profit taking.

From Tom: "The smart-money indicator - the 10-day moving average of the OEX put/call ratio - is showing signs of some possible short-term selling pressure. The 1.32 to 1 ratio of puts to calls is highest reading (lowest direction-wise on the graph) all year. Each of the previous moves down below 1.20 has proven to be a good short-term sell signal."

 

[anthony]

Back in at 50G/50C today. Plus I also picked up the following stocks over the past week (all with intent for longer holds): VLCM @ 19, ZINC @ 8, ASR @ 50, BARE @ 12, and DBP @ $28.

 

[anthony]

I'm feeling a bit more positive here than most of the material I'm reading lately (probably just setting myself up for another downturn, but we'll see).

MACD gave a sell signal this week whether you follow signal line crossovers or going below zero rules, but it just doesn't seem like a convincing signal, seemingly poised to move back up to zero or a buy in short order, with slow stochastics also indicating similar. The volume moving along with these two technicals is the real indicator to me -- the last four days, including Tuesday's big sell off, but also including three up days, have all been made on some of the highest volume we have seen all year. Other technical indicators like Williams are still showing us in a shortterm oversold condition, though off of the bottom from Tuesday. And as Tom pointed out, the smart money is also in a ready position as the OEX put/call shows -- and if AAII is dumb money, it is following suit with the lowest Bulls-to-Bears reading since July 17, with today's 0.53:1.

Bottomline I think there is potential and plenty of room for this market to jump to the upside very soon.

With Ike coming in over the weekend, if the damage is minimal or less than expected, that could be the good news story the market needs to successfully pass this whole head-and-shoulders test. All the same, a Friday sell-off also would not surprise me, as people anticipate the damage or just because there is a lot of uncertainty in the air.

Good luck, and a prayer tonight for the Gulf Coast.

 

[Steadygain]

Bottomline I think there is potential and plenty of room for this market to jump to the upside very soon.

The bottomline is what counts. The possibilty certainly exists.

With Ike coming in over the weekend, if the damage is minimal or less than expected.

A solid CAT 3 - will be costly

Good luck, and a prayer tonight for the Gulf Coast.

Amen!! Something we can all be on the same page about.

 

[anthony]

MACD at zero and also crossing over it's trend line, VIX at rediculous levels, a couple other indicators I'm watching are on the rise ... I'm all in today 75% C, 25% S.

 

[Davehop21]

Anthony I also went 25% C fund today. What is your exit strategy. One day 3 days??

Thanks, Dave at VA

 

[mick504]

You must have gotten in at one of the bottom points hopefully; but you're located where all the safety is....gold bars!!!!!! Kidding!

 

[anthony]

Anthony I also went 25% C fund today. What is your exit strategy. One day 3 days??

Thanks, Dave at VA

No exit in such a short term - very difficult to time. This move might do it for the year, depending on what happens in the next couple of weeks. We shall see ...

 

[anthony]

You must have gotten in at one of the bottom points hopefully; but you're located where all the safety is....gold bars!!!!!! Kidding!

Yeah, that's funny. When we got orders here, my wife and I had hopes of getting a tour to smell all the buttery bars of gold. Then we get here and find out no one gets near the place. You get a lot of conspiracy theories too, like the place is just a giant confidence symbol and there really isn't much gold, or speculation that they moved the space aliens there from Area 51.

Did a little stock nibbling in the last couple of days with BBSI, WLT and SMP.