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Credit goes to anidoc. She asked me to put this article in it's own thread. Would a Moderator please make this a sticky.
http://www.moneyweek.com/file/31699/...the-start.html
Subprime mortgage collapse: why Bear Stearns is just the start 05.07.2007
This is not the idle chatter of permanent bears. The subprime mortgage collapse now hitting Bear Stearns may be just the start.
Serious analysts from big investment firms are talking ominously about "the big one". It will make you angry to learn just how the investment industry has got you involved. If you can understand what's happening, you should have time to move. So let's get to the bottom of it now, and in plain English.
From subprime mortgage to MBS
It all starts with the mortgage. About six million people in the United States who have no money have borrowed about 100% of the value of a house, right at the top of a housing market which has since fallen sharply. These are the subprime borrowers.
The lenders, however, did not have to worry very much about the risk of default, because they rolled these mortgages into bonds called Mortgage-Backed Securities, which they then sold. They got to be off-risk within a few weeks, because by then these re-packaged mortgages belonged to other financial organizations.
But it is not always easy to sell a package of these Mortgage-Backed Securities (known as MBS for short). Selling such a product demands that the credit quality is assessed; and because the underlying mortgages are subprime they are quite likely to go into default.
So a credit-ratings agency will only give the subprime MBS a low credit score, which means it is not considered investment grade. That disqualifies it from the portfolios of many professionally managed funds.
This is where it pays to get a bunch of smart investment bankers involved.
The investment bankers slice the MBS into several "tranches". These are known as Collateralized Debt Obligations, or CDOs for short. The idea is to create some higher risk assets and some much safer ones by slicing up the MBS into what are called equity (high risk), mezzanine (middle risk) and the much sought-after investment grade bonds (low risk).
Higher risk equals higher returns, of course, so the equity tranche of the MBS will earn the highest profits if things go well. But if things start to go wrong, the equity is lost first, and then the mezzanine. Even then, the investment-grade bonds could still get fully paid out. This persuades the credit ratings agencies to give the lowest-risk tranche a high enough credit rating to qualify for the critical investment grade rating.
In this way the investment bank has created a decent proportion of highly marketable bonds out of a package of low-quality mortgages. Fairly standard, for example, is to convert a large package of MBS into perhaps 80% investment-grade bonds, 10% mezzanine, and 10% equity.
How investment banks distribute the debt
The original mortgage lender is in a hurry to get the whole MBS sold off, because this raises cash which can then go to fund fresh mortgage loans to new subprime borrowers. The investment bank is well motivated to slice up the MBS, because selling investment products is what it does best. It won't want to keep much, if any, of the newly created CDO tranches, because investment banks earn their money primarily by deal-making and distribution, rather than by taking risks with borrowers.
In the market for CDOs, the investment bank will find it relatively easy to sell the investment grade bonds. They go mostly to respectable institutions. But the mezzanine and particularly the equity tranches can be trickier to dispose of. The effect of concentrating the risk, as well as the upside, in these tranches is to make them "hot" – so hot, in fact, that investment insiders sometimes call them "toxic waste".
How can these toxic bonds be sold off? There are several ways.
continued......
http://www.moneyweek.com/file/31699/...the-start.html
Subprime mortgage collapse: why Bear Stearns is just the start 05.07.2007
This is not the idle chatter of permanent bears. The subprime mortgage collapse now hitting Bear Stearns may be just the start.
Serious analysts from big investment firms are talking ominously about "the big one". It will make you angry to learn just how the investment industry has got you involved. If you can understand what's happening, you should have time to move. So let's get to the bottom of it now, and in plain English.
From subprime mortgage to MBS
It all starts with the mortgage. About six million people in the United States who have no money have borrowed about 100% of the value of a house, right at the top of a housing market which has since fallen sharply. These are the subprime borrowers.
The lenders, however, did not have to worry very much about the risk of default, because they rolled these mortgages into bonds called Mortgage-Backed Securities, which they then sold. They got to be off-risk within a few weeks, because by then these re-packaged mortgages belonged to other financial organizations.
But it is not always easy to sell a package of these Mortgage-Backed Securities (known as MBS for short). Selling such a product demands that the credit quality is assessed; and because the underlying mortgages are subprime they are quite likely to go into default.
So a credit-ratings agency will only give the subprime MBS a low credit score, which means it is not considered investment grade. That disqualifies it from the portfolios of many professionally managed funds.
This is where it pays to get a bunch of smart investment bankers involved.
The investment bankers slice the MBS into several "tranches". These are known as Collateralized Debt Obligations, or CDOs for short. The idea is to create some higher risk assets and some much safer ones by slicing up the MBS into what are called equity (high risk), mezzanine (middle risk) and the much sought-after investment grade bonds (low risk).
Higher risk equals higher returns, of course, so the equity tranche of the MBS will earn the highest profits if things go well. But if things start to go wrong, the equity is lost first, and then the mezzanine. Even then, the investment-grade bonds could still get fully paid out. This persuades the credit ratings agencies to give the lowest-risk tranche a high enough credit rating to qualify for the critical investment grade rating.
In this way the investment bank has created a decent proportion of highly marketable bonds out of a package of low-quality mortgages. Fairly standard, for example, is to convert a large package of MBS into perhaps 80% investment-grade bonds, 10% mezzanine, and 10% equity.
How investment banks distribute the debt
The original mortgage lender is in a hurry to get the whole MBS sold off, because this raises cash which can then go to fund fresh mortgage loans to new subprime borrowers. The investment bank is well motivated to slice up the MBS, because selling investment products is what it does best. It won't want to keep much, if any, of the newly created CDO tranches, because investment banks earn their money primarily by deal-making and distribution, rather than by taking risks with borrowers.
In the market for CDOs, the investment bank will find it relatively easy to sell the investment grade bonds. They go mostly to respectable institutions. But the mezzanine and particularly the equity tranches can be trickier to dispose of. The effect of concentrating the risk, as well as the upside, in these tranches is to make them "hot" – so hot, in fact, that investment insiders sometimes call them "toxic waste".
How can these toxic bonds be sold off? There are several ways.
continued......