02/25/26
The choppy action continues as the market looks for direction. Stocks bounced back strongly on a Turnaround Tuesday, erasing much of Monday's losses. Today we will get a reaction to Tuesday night's State of the Union address, then Nvidia earnings after the closing bell.
How long has this sideways action been going on? On Oct 29, it was an FOMC / Fed meeting day, and the S&P 500 closed at 6,890. Yesterday it closed 6,890.
By the time most of you read this, the State of the Union Address will be over. It hasn't started as I write this so I have no comment, but I heard that Trump will be proposing new tax cuts. I have no details as to whether it is personal tax, corporate tax, both, when, how they plan to get it done, etc., and yesterday's rally could have been partially because of this information being leaked.
Maybe Nvidia's earnings after the bell will give the market and investors some direction. I can't remember a time in recent years when the argument for the upside, and the downside, were so compelling.
The Nasdaq has been struggling as big tech continues to be a drag on the indices. Despite the bullish action across the board yesterday, the Nasdaq actually saw a few more new 52-week lows yesterday, than new highs.
This is what causes Hindenburg Omen signals, which individually don't generally indicate much, but when they bunch up like this there is a higher tendency for trouble. Yesterday was the 6th signal in a month. That's the most since early 2020 before the COVID crash. There were 11 signals before a 20% decline in the S&P 500 in late 2018 .
The S&P 500 (C-fund) is lingering near 6900 and it has been range-bound within 6800 and 6900+ for the last seven trading days, while remaining below the October peak.
It seems to be getting an assist from that purple moving average as it has held all month, and the PMO Indicator has been holding above -0-, something that held back at the November lows as well.
One bullish sign for the stock market is the Transportation Index, which has been holding firmly at the 20-day moving average with two more successful tests this week.
On the bearish side, the financials have been struggling badly all year, and it will be tough for the stock market to rally if this can't right itself.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) rallied 1.3% yesterday, getting back a large portion of Monday's loss after another successful test of the purple moving average, but it is still in a bearish head and shoulders pattern with important support just above 2500.
The ACWX (I fund) was up nicely on the day, but it lagged the US funds, most likely because it didn't take the big losses that the US indices took on Monday, plus the dollar was up, which can weigh on the index.
BND (bonds / F-fund) digested Monday's big gain with a small loss yesterday. The gap was filled last week, but I still think a test of the blue breakout line could be in the cards at some point. When, I don't know. So bonds look bullish, but there could be some backing and filling coming.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
The choppy action continues as the market looks for direction. Stocks bounced back strongly on a Turnaround Tuesday, erasing much of Monday's losses. Today we will get a reaction to Tuesday night's State of the Union address, then Nvidia earnings after the closing bell.
| Daily TSP Funds Return More returns |
How long has this sideways action been going on? On Oct 29, it was an FOMC / Fed meeting day, and the S&P 500 closed at 6,890. Yesterday it closed 6,890.
By the time most of you read this, the State of the Union Address will be over. It hasn't started as I write this so I have no comment, but I heard that Trump will be proposing new tax cuts. I have no details as to whether it is personal tax, corporate tax, both, when, how they plan to get it done, etc., and yesterday's rally could have been partially because of this information being leaked.
Maybe Nvidia's earnings after the bell will give the market and investors some direction. I can't remember a time in recent years when the argument for the upside, and the downside, were so compelling.
The Nasdaq has been struggling as big tech continues to be a drag on the indices. Despite the bullish action across the board yesterday, the Nasdaq actually saw a few more new 52-week lows yesterday, than new highs.
This is what causes Hindenburg Omen signals, which individually don't generally indicate much, but when they bunch up like this there is a higher tendency for trouble. Yesterday was the 6th signal in a month. That's the most since early 2020 before the COVID crash. There were 11 signals before a 20% decline in the S&P 500 in late 2018 .
The S&P 500 (C-fund) is lingering near 6900 and it has been range-bound within 6800 and 6900+ for the last seven trading days, while remaining below the October peak.
It seems to be getting an assist from that purple moving average as it has held all month, and the PMO Indicator has been holding above -0-, something that held back at the November lows as well.
One bullish sign for the stock market is the Transportation Index, which has been holding firmly at the 20-day moving average with two more successful tests this week.
On the bearish side, the financials have been struggling badly all year, and it will be tough for the stock market to rally if this can't right itself.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) rallied 1.3% yesterday, getting back a large portion of Monday's loss after another successful test of the purple moving average, but it is still in a bearish head and shoulders pattern with important support just above 2500.
The ACWX (I fund) was up nicely on the day, but it lagged the US funds, most likely because it didn't take the big losses that the US indices took on Monday, plus the dollar was up, which can weigh on the index.
BND (bonds / F-fund) digested Monday's big gain with a small loss yesterday. The gap was filled last week, but I still think a test of the blue breakout line could be in the cards at some point. When, I don't know. So bonds look bullish, but there could be some backing and filling coming.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
