04/23/26
Stocks rallied yesterday on the extended ceasefire, and these on again, off again, announcements have provided volatility for market timers, but of course in our TSP we get only a couple of moves each month and trying to anticipate the ups and downs can get frustrating if you're off. Overall, the buy and holder has come out ahead again with stocks at their all-time highs, but the market timers who have played it right, are doing quite well.
Heading into today, the S&P 500 is up 4.27% for the year and the TSP Talk AutoTracker shows several of our members with gains over 12%, with the top two leaders up about 16% for the year. So, the opportunities have been there, especially if you used some of the higher beta S and I-funds at the right time. On the other hand, it you haven't timed this well and missed this rally back up, some members find themselves still in negative territory for the year and would have been better of holding. You never know.
Despite the ceasefire, the oil was up yesterday but the stock market didn't seem to mind this time after a long streak of the stock market moving in the opposite of the price of oil. But surprisingly, going back to the start of the Iran war, the price of oil is up 42%, and the S&P 500 is up 3.3% after the violent rally off the lows.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) closed at its highest level of the year yesterday but it remains just below the last Friday's intraday peak. That is now six closes above the the old highs, which is a convincing breakout so far. The flat top gets more concerning, the longer it gets.
What is interesting about last Friday's high is that Friday was April 17. This could change today, but it's interesting that this still is inline with the average high date in the first half of a midterm election year, as we noted before.
Will it hold? That's an average date so that specific date is not in stone, but interesting and still worth watching. The late March low was right on cue as well.
If the S&P 500's actions turns out to be anything inline with that average midterm year chart, it may get worse again before getting much better, but as always, seasonality is not a primary indicator, so take this for what it's worth. I find it interesting and worth watching.
The Equal Weighted S&P 500 chart (same 500 stocks) continues to under-perform and is languishing below the February peak and playing out like a very typical double top pullback. The S&P 500 isn't doing this because of the strength in tech stocks.
Here is the QQQ, the large cap technology stock ETF, and it is flying past the previous highs and pulling the S&P 500 with it.
How about the semiconductors? The $SOX Index has now been up for 16 straight trading days. That's impressive, but support is quite thin making this vulnerable.
There is another interesting trend or pattern that has been around for years: That is, when a new Federal Reserve Chair is approved and takes the position, there has been a 10% correction during their first year as chair. It has happened for 10 of the last 13 new chairs. Kevin Warsh is going through the confirmation process now as Jerome Powell's term nears completion.
Earnings are coming out. Tesla was the first Magnificent 7 company to report earnings and it was trading fairly flat after hours after reporting last night.
Oil was up in after hours trading, pushing the equity futures down.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) was up yesterday but April's leading fund lagged the other two stock funds yesterday. It remains above the breakout line, which is bullish, of course, but it has been stalling in this 2700 area and it is still dealing with Tuesday's negative reversal day.
The weekly chart of the S-fund may show why it is getting stuck for a minute. It could be temporary or more concerning, but it's tough to say yet as the longer term resistance line holds.
ACWX (I-fund) was up nicely on Wednesday but it is still below the double top. It did hold once it filled in the gap just below 73. Is that enough of a pullback for the double top, or does it have the red open gap in its sight?
BND (bonds / F-fund) was up a bit yesterday and it is hovering above the old resistance line, which is now trying to hold as support.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Updated monthly:
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks rallied yesterday on the extended ceasefire, and these on again, off again, announcements have provided volatility for market timers, but of course in our TSP we get only a couple of moves each month and trying to anticipate the ups and downs can get frustrating if you're off. Overall, the buy and holder has come out ahead again with stocks at their all-time highs, but the market timers who have played it right, are doing quite well.
| Daily TSP Funds Return More returns |
Heading into today, the S&P 500 is up 4.27% for the year and the TSP Talk AutoTracker shows several of our members with gains over 12%, with the top two leaders up about 16% for the year. So, the opportunities have been there, especially if you used some of the higher beta S and I-funds at the right time. On the other hand, it you haven't timed this well and missed this rally back up, some members find themselves still in negative territory for the year and would have been better of holding. You never know.
Despite the ceasefire, the oil was up yesterday but the stock market didn't seem to mind this time after a long streak of the stock market moving in the opposite of the price of oil. But surprisingly, going back to the start of the Iran war, the price of oil is up 42%, and the S&P 500 is up 3.3% after the violent rally off the lows.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) closed at its highest level of the year yesterday but it remains just below the last Friday's intraday peak. That is now six closes above the the old highs, which is a convincing breakout so far. The flat top gets more concerning, the longer it gets.
What is interesting about last Friday's high is that Friday was April 17. This could change today, but it's interesting that this still is inline with the average high date in the first half of a midterm election year, as we noted before.
Will it hold? That's an average date so that specific date is not in stone, but interesting and still worth watching. The late March low was right on cue as well.
If the S&P 500's actions turns out to be anything inline with that average midterm year chart, it may get worse again before getting much better, but as always, seasonality is not a primary indicator, so take this for what it's worth. I find it interesting and worth watching.
The Equal Weighted S&P 500 chart (same 500 stocks) continues to under-perform and is languishing below the February peak and playing out like a very typical double top pullback. The S&P 500 isn't doing this because of the strength in tech stocks.
Here is the QQQ, the large cap technology stock ETF, and it is flying past the previous highs and pulling the S&P 500 with it.
How about the semiconductors? The $SOX Index has now been up for 16 straight trading days. That's impressive, but support is quite thin making this vulnerable.
There is another interesting trend or pattern that has been around for years: That is, when a new Federal Reserve Chair is approved and takes the position, there has been a 10% correction during their first year as chair. It has happened for 10 of the last 13 new chairs. Kevin Warsh is going through the confirmation process now as Jerome Powell's term nears completion.
Earnings are coming out. Tesla was the first Magnificent 7 company to report earnings and it was trading fairly flat after hours after reporting last night.
Oil was up in after hours trading, pushing the equity futures down.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) was up yesterday but April's leading fund lagged the other two stock funds yesterday. It remains above the breakout line, which is bullish, of course, but it has been stalling in this 2700 area and it is still dealing with Tuesday's negative reversal day.
The weekly chart of the S-fund may show why it is getting stuck for a minute. It could be temporary or more concerning, but it's tough to say yet as the longer term resistance line holds.
ACWX (I-fund) was up nicely on Wednesday but it is still below the double top. It did hold once it filled in the gap just below 73. Is that enough of a pullback for the double top, or does it have the red open gap in its sight?
BND (bonds / F-fund) was up a bit yesterday and it is hovering above the old resistance line, which is now trying to hold as support.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Updated monthly:
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
