-
Welcome to the TSP Talk Forums forums.
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest which gives you limited access to view most discussions and access our other features. By joining our free community you will have access to post topics, communicate privately with other members (PM), respond to polls, upload content, join our AutoTracker, and access many other special features. Registration is simple and absolutely free so please, join our community today!
If you have any problems with the registration process or your account login, please contact us. -
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com
-
Please read our AutoTracker policy on the IFT deadline and remaining active. Thanks!
-
$ - Premium Service Content (Info) | AutoTracker Monthly Winners | Is Gmail et al, Blocking Our emails?
Find us on: Facebook & X | Posting Copyrighted Material
-
Join the TSP Talk AutoTracker: How to Get Started | Login | Main AutoTracker Page
amoeba's Account Talk
- Thread starter amoeba
- Start date
XL-entLady
Well-known member
And we will look forward to visiting it often.:laugh:
Lady
Lady
Can we see each other's reallocations? here's mine
So....another dumb beginner question.....can I see the other member's realloctions.....and if so, how? (I don't care if you look at mine, here goes_:
My strategy is averaging down (G-F-C-S-I) and rethink this when I have more IFT's to use next month - but here's the recent activity.
6/18 (before I started) 40%35%5%5%15%
6/19 (day I'm on tracker)
50%35%2%2%6%
tomorrow
80%0%0%17%3%
I'm betting on some rotation and favorable, temporary, changes in the yield curve in advance or near the Fed meeting.
My year-to-date return as of yesterday was 0.75%, with 13 reallocations.
My peak return after a trade, was a mere 2.28% on May 20, 2008, and since then I fell below the G fund. Hope to learn something here.
So....another dumb beginner question.....can I see the other member's realloctions.....and if so, how? (I don't care if you look at mine, here goes_:
My strategy is averaging down (G-F-C-S-I) and rethink this when I have more IFT's to use next month - but here's the recent activity.
6/18 (before I started) 40%35%5%5%15%
6/19 (day I'm on tracker)
50%35%2%2%6%
tomorrow
80%0%0%17%3%
I'm betting on some rotation and favorable, temporary, changes in the yield curve in advance or near the Fed meeting.
My year-to-date return as of yesterday was 0.75%, with 13 reallocations.
My peak return after a trade, was a mere 2.28% on May 20, 2008, and since then I fell below the G fund. Hope to learn something here.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Re: Can we see each other's reallocations? here's mine
Our allocations are extremely guarded and private; and seldom does anyone mention them.
BUT THAT'S COOL MY FRIEND - AS YOU'RE FAIRLY NEW.
We use the Auto Tracker - which is like a huge platinum vault - probably 3,000 times more secure than any bank vault.
To enter go to the top thread of Member's Accout Talk and maybe 3 down from the top you'll see Auto Tracker Rules. You have to go through EW_ret, who is like the bank president and request to join. He'll send you the 128 K - complex encrypted code along with your own membership.
Once you get that you can see everyone's allocations and also how each one is doing in comparison to the others.
You can also see how the members are switching on any particular day.
All you need is 5 members to like you - and you're in - and right now there are at least 70 members that like you a lot.
Welcome my friend
Oh yeal, almost forgot - around here there are no "dumb questions"
Steadygain
Our allocations are extremely guarded and private; and seldom does anyone mention them.
BUT THAT'S COOL MY FRIEND - AS YOU'RE FAIRLY NEW.
We use the Auto Tracker - which is like a huge platinum vault - probably 3,000 times more secure than any bank vault.
To enter go to the top thread of Member's Accout Talk and maybe 3 down from the top you'll see Auto Tracker Rules. You have to go through EW_ret, who is like the bank president and request to join. He'll send you the 128 K - complex encrypted code along with your own membership.
Once you get that you can see everyone's allocations and also how each one is doing in comparison to the others.
You can also see how the members are switching on any particular day.
All you need is 5 members to like you - and you're in - and right now there are at least 70 members that like you a lot.
Welcome my friend
Oh yeal, almost forgot - around here there are no "dumb questions"
Steadygain
EW_ret
Retired Tracker
To see the days IFT allocation go to View IFT of the day (click). This shows the current, and past, IFTs that members have made. Members who subscribe to a premium service will not show fund allocations, or recent returns.
To see member rankings and current fund allocations go to Members Ranking and Allocation (click). The ranking is by Return to Date, or Year To Date (YTD). Members who subscribe to a premium service will not show fund allocations, or recent returns.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
It's pretty cool joining the Auto Tracker because you get to keep up on what anyone's doing when ever you want.
There's a good mix here - so it's helpful when you see everyone getting in or getting out.
Plus a lot of times the crowd will change their allocations and show it on the tracker - but not talk about it elsewhere.
Possible Scenario - we just hit the "second bottom" and are on the way up.
Join now - the next few weeks you'll have nothing but gains - which makes you look like the greatest pro around
There's a good mix here - so it's helpful when you see everyone getting in or getting out.
Plus a lot of times the crowd will change their allocations and show it on the tracker - but not talk about it elsewhere.
Possible Scenario - we just hit the "second bottom" and are on the way up.
Join now - the next few weeks you'll have nothing but gains - which makes you look like the greatest pro around
well, I've done just about jack since I started tracking - after conducting 16 IFT's before that. My yeartodate return (since jan 1, not shown), are about 1.51%.
I know that puts me below G fund (where I am, 100%) but I went chicken recently, when every fund (including F, where I was) got taken apart in the "take no prisoners" slaughter of the beginning of June. Then, of course, F had it's moments, but they have been fleeting.
I'm not sure how confident I am in F anymore, although it looks like a bargain - and I wonder how many suckers will buy into the market in the face of "not as bad as I thought news" (less than expected declines in home prices, for example). Seems like more and bigger daily swings in the fund prices than earlier this year. Picking when to buy, hold, walk away, or run, is the trick.
Anyway, I'm watching daily - and may make a modest move soon (I'll be on vacation then, and not watching for 10 days). Should be interesting.
I know that puts me below G fund (where I am, 100%) but I went chicken recently, when every fund (including F, where I was) got taken apart in the "take no prisoners" slaughter of the beginning of June. Then, of course, F had it's moments, but they have been fleeting.
I'm not sure how confident I am in F anymore, although it looks like a bargain - and I wonder how many suckers will buy into the market in the face of "not as bad as I thought news" (less than expected declines in home prices, for example). Seems like more and bigger daily swings in the fund prices than earlier this year. Picking when to buy, hold, walk away, or run, is the trick.
Anyway, I'm watching daily - and may make a modest move soon (I'll be on vacation then, and not watching for 10 days). Should be interesting.
well people:
I'm tiptoe-ing back in action. 20% in (6C,7S,7I); part of my recent attempts to pick a two-transfer bottom (since that's all I get); try for some bottom fish, dead cats, and the like; on the horizon are various bigger factors, election, cap gains tax break sunset (or whatever who is elected will decide to do with it), housing "crisis" (for those of us who own, or looking to sell, I wouldn't call it a crisis for buyers), mortgage rates, global economy, etc. Not looking that far out.
But if you don't play, you can't win.
Amoeba out.
I'm tiptoe-ing back in action. 20% in (6C,7S,7I); part of my recent attempts to pick a two-transfer bottom (since that's all I get); try for some bottom fish, dead cats, and the like; on the horizon are various bigger factors, election, cap gains tax break sunset (or whatever who is elected will decide to do with it), housing "crisis" (for those of us who own, or looking to sell, I wouldn't call it a crisis for buyers), mortgage rates, global economy, etc. Not looking that far out.
But if you don't play, you can't win.
Amoeba out.
Did I say that? well, maybe if you don't play you can't lose, which is what I did today, in the form of negatory 3%.
With two ITF's, I will use my second to rebalance tomorrow (85% G, 8% I, 7% F), and see if the dead cat will bounce again. That was the quickest $800 I lost, and without the entertainment value of blackjack or slots.
Bottom yo mama.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
85% G - sounds like a smart move.
It's hard to avoid the "dead cat bounce" mentality when over the years it's been fairly predictable and dependable.
Main problem is the 2 ITFs (as you noted). Most likely senario at this point looks like you may get a 1 day bounce - before the downward acceleration kicks in.
I'm floored things are going down faster; wondering
85% G - sounds like a smart move.
It's hard to avoid the "dead cat bounce" mentality when over the years it's been fairly predictable and dependable.
Main problem is the 2 ITFs (as you noted). Most likely senario at this point looks like you may get a 1 day bounce - before the downward acceleration kicks in.
I'm floored things are going down faster; wondering
Steadygain's crystal ball prompted me to take some quick gains last friday on the I fund; now I'm pared down to 3% I, 3% F, and 94% good old G.
As far as the rest of this month is concerned; I'll use it as practice....see if I can pick some exit point on the remainder of I and F and pull out a gain, or at least minimize the loss. See you all in October.....after the election.
relevance and irrelevance (tracey ray)
Relevance:
pick your favorite bad sign for stocks in the next 6-9 months
a) gold inflows
b) housing market and results therefin (to those that own homes)
c) oil
d) unemployment
Irrelevance:
pretty much anything tracey ray ever said (see earlier posts from TSP interfund transfer limits, some black humor, I guess)
a) like most people can't do better than the S&P
b) those people who keep going in and out "will be sorry" later this year
as Dr. Evil said........"yeahhhhh, riiiigggghhhhttt"
Relevance:
pick your favorite bad sign for stocks in the next 6-9 months
a) gold inflows
b) housing market and results therefin (to those that own homes)
c) oil
d) unemployment
Irrelevance:
pretty much anything tracey ray ever said (see earlier posts from TSP interfund transfer limits, some black humor, I guess)
a) like most people can't do better than the S&P
b) those people who keep going in and out "will be sorry" later this year
as Dr. Evil said........"yeahhhhh, riiiigggghhhhttt"
I missed the interfund trade deadline by about 2 minutes yesterdy in ditching my last 3% of I fund.
So looks like I will be about 4% higher on getting out as it is processed at COB today.
An overview of my "practice" exit point shows that in the falling knife scenario, the faster you pull out - the less money you lose - even if you gain some back at the end.
Looks like my nose is still above water in the standings (#24, last place among those with + returns). I aim to get it back later.
So looks like I will be about 4% higher on getting out as it is processed at COB today.
An overview of my "practice" exit point shows that in the falling knife scenario, the faster you pull out - the less money you lose - even if you gain some back at the end.
Looks like my nose is still above water in the standings (#24, last place among those with + returns). I aim to get it back later.
Last edited:
sorry for the late answer - but - yes, I think its more fun to yank it back into G and watch the market plunder someone else's retirement than a whopping 25% additional decline in mine.
What tea is poolman drinking to accrete 10% out of this market over the last month?
Altho we've had a big inter-day swing to the upside; and futures are up - I'm not pushing any buttons just yet.....remember 9/19? 9/30? the alamo?
what has gone up for a few days, or weeks, has ended up not breaking upside resistence and falling further....at least since mid-July.....and that was before Paulson admitted there was a credit problem. Now what? Credit is restored (not)? The recession is over (not)?
It ain't over, till it's over.
But that doesn't mean I won't try to make some money here.....common sense is one thing.....predicting what the masses will do is another.
Amoeba out.
A couple months since I last posted:
Still trying to figure out the brain-dead moves into equities; there are varied predictions for the S&P in 2009, the latest by UBS is something on the order of 50%+; and guess what? If I miss that entirely, I'll still be ahead of them by having pulled out at 1270 and held for a year.
I see wild fluctuations anywhere from 680 on the downside (that's right, end of 2009, 680), to maybe 1050 on the upside. The downside is easy to see - lame consumption and earnings - more foreclosures; declining net worth for those that keep their houses. Mid-2010 I hope will be better.
The upside is obscure, but plausible, crazy optimism and bidding up of stocks to insane P:E's of 20 or even 30. Why? who knows, but it happened before and can happen again.
For now - I am looking at getting back into CSI slowly and cautiously. Though there have been few down compared to up days (over the past two weeks) they have been big and sudden downers.
Still trying to figure out the brain-dead moves into equities; there are varied predictions for the S&P in 2009, the latest by UBS is something on the order of 50%+; and guess what? If I miss that entirely, I'll still be ahead of them by having pulled out at 1270 and held for a year.
I see wild fluctuations anywhere from 680 on the downside (that's right, end of 2009, 680), to maybe 1050 on the upside. The downside is easy to see - lame consumption and earnings - more foreclosures; declining net worth for those that keep their houses. Mid-2010 I hope will be better.
The upside is obscure, but plausible, crazy optimism and bidding up of stocks to insane P:E's of 20 or even 30. Why? who knows, but it happened before and can happen again.
For now - I am looking at getting back into CSI slowly and cautiously. Though there have been few down compared to up days (over the past two weeks) they have been big and sudden downers.
