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+1 I love this thread, this is a great opportunity for the casual investor to steer clear of the large downtrends. I can't remember what the back-tested results were, if you ever get a chance, please post them again since there are always new members needing to learn.
) If you used simple addition, you will get faulty results:
(as so many times helpful (albeit: critical) information leads to on this site) just thought you would like accurate information. There is no easy way to tell someone: "Sorry, that's not correct if you did it like this..." But I tried.
Yes, Userque, you can't simply add up your returns to total them or average them because your balance is different for each one and leads to erroneous results. You aren't figuring your subsequent gains/losses from your previous gains/losses. The classic example is losing 50% one year and earning 50% the next does not get you back to where you were. That is why you need to compute stuff like annualized returns instead of simple means. That's explained here: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/ta-tools/18517-introduction-measuring-risk-tsp-funds-2.html#post428667. Post #2 is probably what you want.
If this is not what you are referring to, feel free to give another example. I'm no finance person and we don't want people led astray.
Some believe (or want others to believe?) that what you've shown here, is not possible to do:blink:. However, these posts aren't the ones I saw that caused me to initially have concerns.
This (Post #136) is a great post and I think should be linked to when ever we see someone not following their own system. We see a lot of that posted around the forum. Unfortunately, it usually goes something like: I would have done better if I had stuck to my system.
This (Post #136) is a great post and I think should be linked to when ever we see someone not following their own system. We see a lot of that posted around the forum. Unfortunately, it usually goes something like: I would have done better if I had stuck to my system.
To answer you question, Jonfresno, the truth is because I'm stupid and think I can second guess the system. That is down in print. Look at my monthly posts for 2013 on this thread, especially the ones where Hallatauer responded and said: "you can't second guess a mechanical system or it won't work. you either follow it or you don't". He's a smart man. listen to him.
Some people will look at a bunch of systems and make decisions based on the relative position of some majority of them. I'm not sure that works. You are not going to get the results of LMBF from only following it on certain days in certain months. The differences between LMBF & LMBF-1 point out how big a difference 1 day makes.
I can't speak for anyone else but as for me I think more decisions are based on changing gut instinct than TA or following some trend or system. I say changing because for me it does change every time I read all these wonderful posts on the forum. That means I'm not consistent and probably more emotional with my trades. And we all know that the number 1 tool the market uses against you is your emotions.
If not now, when? Good question. Now would be good for me because I'm too busy to pay attention to what's going on and likely to get busier soon. Excuse: I'm currently being held prisoner by the belief that we have a correction coming this Summer. Some folks thought that all last year and missed the year it was hard too lose. Looks like I have some more losses coming.
