Alternate LMBF methods

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Here are the monthly returns as of 9/27/13.


[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: left"] Date [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] G FUND [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] F FUND [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] C FUND [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] S FUND [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] I FUND [/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: left"] 27-Sep-2013 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]0.17%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]1.00%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]3.76%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]6.06%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CC00, align: right"]8.45%[/TD]
The best fund is I so the following IFTs take place before noon eastern Monday, 9/30/13:

  • LMBF-1 changes from the G Fund to the I Fund
  • LMBF-1 SIM remains in the F Fund through October
  • LMBF-1 C>S changes from the G Fund to the I Fund
  • LMBF-1 CI>S changes from the G Fund to the S Fund
  • LMWF-1 changes from the C Fund to the G Fund
 
Made my move to the I Fund over the weekend. Looks like lots of turmoil this week as congress fights and we all lose. Guess having our money in the international markets is a good thing this month.
 
It's the end of the 3rd quarter, so here are the returns through the end of September.


[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]G[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]F[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]C[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]S[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]I[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]LMBF[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]LMBF-1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]C>S[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]CI>S[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]SIM[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]LMWF-1[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]Jan[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.13%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.56%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.18%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.96%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.45%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.45%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.45%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.45%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.96%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.45%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.56%) [/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]Feb[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.13%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.51%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.36%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.99%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.66%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.51%[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]Mar[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.13%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.07%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.75%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.69%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.88%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.57%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.75%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.69%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.69%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.75%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.88%[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]Apr[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.12%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.02%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.93%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.65%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.32%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.27%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.65%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.65%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.65%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.65%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.02%[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]May[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.12%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (1.78%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.34%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.71%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (3.12%)
 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (4.67%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (3.12%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (3.12%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.71%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (1.78%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.71%[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]Jun[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.14%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (1.53%)
 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (1.34%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.99%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (2.77%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.79%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (1.34%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.99%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.99%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (1.53%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (1.53%) [/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]Jul[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.18%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.13%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.10%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.88%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.29%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.43%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.18%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.18%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.18%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.13%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.29%[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]Aug[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.18%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.48%)
 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (2.89%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (2.76%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (1.31%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (4.32%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (2.76%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (2.76%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (2.76%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.48%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.48%) [/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]Sep[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.19%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.99%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.14%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.89%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.41%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.56%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.19%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.19%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.19%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.99%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.14%[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: left"]YTD[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]1.32%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"] (1.65%)
 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]19.83%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]27.39%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]15.53%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]1.79%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]2.77%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]4.06%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]12.98%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]7.23%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]11.34%[/TD]

As you can see, what we speculated last month came to pass. Just like June's bust was followed by the tremendous equities rally in July, August's bust was followed by another recovery rally in September. And all while most of the LMBF methods were in the safety of the G Fund. Most of the LMBF family has been out of sync for the last 5 months now. This is getting more than old. It's getting downright depressing.

What can I say that I haven't repeatedly said already? This is the year to buy-N-hold C and/or S Funds. The LMBF family can't compete. LMBF and LMBF-1 are only beating out the G Fund (As of this writing LMBF has actually slipped below the G Fund and is solidly in the bottom quarter on the AutoTracker). :eek: Even the LMWF-1 is doing better than all but one of the LMBF family.

Are there any good signs? Well, yes, the same ones as before. CI>S is still holding up well because it's been in the S Fund most of the year, but even it slipped into the G Fund for July & August to miss the recovery rallies. SIM is still living up to its purpose to beat LMBF-1 by being in the F Fund during the weaker 6 months of the year. This paid off in a bigger gain for September. That adds to the reduced losses for May & August to make SIM a serious option to consider here. That is even more remarkable when you consider that the F Fund just isn't doing that great this year. :blink:

LMWF-1 once again gained the advantage by being in equities in September. It was actually in the worst of the lot, the C Fund, but since most of the LMBF family was in the safety of the G Fund, LMWF-1 was still able to extend it's lead. Again, the strategy of being in equities is paying off this year.

Well, I started looking at the monthly returns for LMBF & LMBF-1 because I wanted to get a feel of what they are like in the midst of deciding our investment instead of looking at the historical data of annual returns after the fact. From looking at this over the summer, it looks like a method that stopped working as soon as I looked into it. That's the story of my life. Once you find a pattern it stops working. Or does it?

Look at the monthly returns I posted in the tables at the start of this thread. Have we been here before? In September of 2010 LMBF-1 was siting at 1.55%. That's worse than now. We should have given up on that method then, right? Except it finished the year in 2nd place at 17.35%, aced out only by the S Fund. LMBF was in even worse shape sitting at -1.95%. Get me out of this loser, right? Only it also pulled a nice recovery ending the year at 12.85%. That was below the S & C Funds but still not a bad comeback considering where it was in September. Then there is September 2004 where LMBF-1 was at 1.67% but finished the year at 14.51%, and LMBF was at 2.15% and finished at 13%.

When you look at the annual returns, those are the kind of numbers you want. They are just hard to see when you are sitting in September's returns. Will that happen this year? Who knows? Maybe these methods really have stopped working. My emotions are certainly telling me that. But we definitely have been here before. And as I pointed out earlier, the numbers do jump around a lot from month to month. If you can't stomach that, these methods are not for you.
 
As we look to the end of the month, being in the I Fund has been good to us. The C and S Funds have been better. We'll see what happens in the next 24 hrs but it looks like a a move back to domestic equities will be in order. C or C>S will rule.
 
Looks like you are going to be right on the C Fund, Hallatauer. The I Fund may pull ahead of the S Fund, though. We will have to see this evening. I think I'd be more inclined to go with C>S than C, myself. There is more room for growth from here and I have just always liked it better since we discovered it.
 
Here are the monthly returns as of 10/30/13.


[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: left"] Date [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] G FUND [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] F FUND [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] C FUND [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] S FUND [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] I FUND [/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: left"] 30-Oct-2013 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]0.19%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]0.90%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CC00, align: right"]5.00%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]3.21%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]4.21%[/TD]
The best fund is C so the following IFTs take place before noon eastern tomorrow, 10/31/13:

  • LMBF-1 changes from the I Fund to the C Fund
  • LMBF-1 SIM changes from the F Fund to the C Fund
  • LMBF-1 C>S changes from the I Fund to the S Fund
  • LMBF-1 CI>S remains in the S Fund
  • LMWF-1 remains in the G Fund
 
Cactus said:
Looks like you are going to be right on the C Fund, Hallatauer. The I Fund may pull ahead of the S Fund, though. We will have to see this evening. I think I'd be more inclined to go with C>S than C, myself. There is more room for growth from here and I have just always liked it better since we discovered it.
Click to expand...

I agree and have been doing the C>S regularly also since that option showed to give higher returns. Time to make my transfer!
 
October is behind us, so here are the returns through the end of October.


[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]G[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]F[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]C[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]S[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]I[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]LMBF[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]LMBF-1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]C>S[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]CI>S[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]SIM[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]LMWF[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]Jan[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.13%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.56%)
 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.18%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.96%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.45%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.45%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.45%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.45%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.96%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.45%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.56%) [/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]Feb[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.13%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.51%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.36%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.99%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.66%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.51%[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]Mar[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.13%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.07%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.75%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.69%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.88%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.57%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.75%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.69%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.69%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.75%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.88%[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]Apr[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.12%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.02%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.93%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.65%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.32%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.27%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.65%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.65%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.65%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.65%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.02%[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]May[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.12%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (1.78%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.34%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.71%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (3.12%)
 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (4.67%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (3.12%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (3.12%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.71%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (1.78%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.71%[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]Jun[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.14%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (1.53%)
 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (1.34%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.99%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (2.77%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.79%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (1.34%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.99%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.99%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (1.53%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (1.53%) [/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]Jul[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.18%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.13%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.10%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.88%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.29%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.43%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.18%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.18%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.18%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.13%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.29%[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]Aug[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.18%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.48%)
 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (2.89%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (2.76%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (1.31%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (4.32%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (2.76%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (2.76%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (2.76%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.48%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.48%) [/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]Sep[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.19%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.99%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.14%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.89%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.41%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.56%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.19%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.19%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.19%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.99%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.14%[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]Oct[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.19%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.89%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.60%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.94%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.38%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.93%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.38% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.38%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.94%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.89%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.19%[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: left"]YTD[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]1.52%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"] (0.78%) [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]25.34%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]31.13%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]19.43%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]4.78%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]6.24%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]7.58%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]16.30%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]8.18%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]11.55%[/TD]
Broken record time again. Buy-N-hold has been king this year. C and/or S Funds have been the way to go. Even the I Fund came up nicely in October. Equities certainly were the way to go. Fortunately most of the LMBF variants were in equities and were rewarded with gains. LMBF, LMBF-1, and C>S were so far down that October's returns were in the neighborhood of doubling their YTD standing from last month. Still, none of the LMBF variants can touch the C, S or even I Fund this year.

CI>S was in the S Fund for October which was actually the worst performing of our equity funds. This means that it didn't gain as much as those methods in the I Fund. Still, it started from a higher base and thus remains the leader among the LMBF variants this year.

SIM was in the F Fund by design from May - Oct and now returns to following LMBF-1 in Nov. You will remember that the idea behind the SIM variant is to follow LMBF-1 during the so called stronger 6 months of the year, and hold it in the F Funds for the rest. So did it work? It did this year. It is sitting almost 2% higher than LMBF-1 for the year. Also consider this is in a year where the F Fund hasn't been doing that well. It is still negative for the year and still managed its 2% advantage. It may be something to consider next May. :)

I will continue to post the LMWF-1 returns through the end of the year since there was recent interest in it. I don't have that much to say about it since I don't think it is a good choice (see previous postings). It was in the G Fund for Oct and remains there in Nov. That hurt it being out of equities for Oct. Of course it is sitting at a nice YTD return compared to most of the LMBF variants so what is there to complain about. We'll have to see if this is made up for in Nov.
 
Here are the monthly returns as of 11/27/13.


[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: left"] Date [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] G FUND [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] F FUND [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] C FUND [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] S FUND [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] I FUND [/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: left"] 27-Nov-2013 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]0.16%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"] (0.36%) [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CC00, align: right"]3.13%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]2.52%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]0.12%[/TD]
The best fund is C so the following IFTs take place before noon eastern tomorrow, 11/29/13:

  • LMBF-1 remains in the C Fund
  • LMBF-1 SIM remains in the C Fund
  • LMBF-1 C>S remains in the S Fund
  • LMBF-1 CI>S remains in the S Fund
  • LMWF-1 changes from the G Fund to the F Fund
 
Well, it looks like LMBF is going to remain in the C Fund just like LMBF-1. That's quite interesting. If you look at the tables at the beginning of this thread you will notice that has never happened for the LMBF before. For LMBF-1 there has been only one occurrence of being in the C Fund for two consecutive months; that being Nov & Dec 2009.
 
Cactus said:
Well, it looks like LMBF is going to remain in the C Fund just like LMBF-1. That's quite interesting. If you look at the tables at the beginning of this thread you will notice that has never happened for the LMBF before. For LMBF-1 there has been only one occurrence of being in the C Fund for two consecutive months; that being Nov & Dec 2009.
Click to expand...
It looks like LMBF-1 was in the F fund for Nov '09 and the C fund for Dec '09.
 
You're right! :o Thank you. It is showing Nov as being in the F Fund. It looks like a copy & paste error from the the LMBF table. I did change the color of the box indicating changes from LMBF but I forgot to change the letter to 'C'. It still has the 'F' from LMBF. At least the percentages are for the C Fund. Still, I need to post a corrected table. At this point I'll probable wait till after Dec so I can include the 2013 returns.
 
OK, November is well behind us so it's past time I get out these results:


[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]G[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]F[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]C[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]S[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]I[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]LMBF[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]LMBF-1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]C>S[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]CI>S[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]SIM[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"]LMWF[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]Jan[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.13%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.56%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.18%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.96%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.45%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.45%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.45%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.45%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.96%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.45%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.56%) [/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]Feb[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.13%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.51%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.36%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.99%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.66%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.51%[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]Mar[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.13%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.07%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.75%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.69%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.88%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.57%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.75%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.69%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.69%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.75%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.88%[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]Apr[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.12%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.02%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.93%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.65%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.32%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.27%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.65%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.65%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.65%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.65%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.02%[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]May[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.12%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (1.78%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.34%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.71%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (3.12%)
 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (4.67%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (3.12%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (3.12%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.71%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (1.78%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.71%[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]Jun[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.14%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (1.53%)
 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (1.34%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.99%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (2.77%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.79%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (1.34%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.99%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.99%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (1.53%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (1.53%) [/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]Jul[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.18%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.13%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.10%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.88%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.29%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.43%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.18%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.18%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.18%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.13%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.29%[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]Aug[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.18%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.48%)
 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (2.89%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (2.76%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (1.31%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (4.32%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (2.76%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (2.76%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (2.76%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.48%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.48%) [/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]Sep[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.19%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.99%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.14%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.89%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.41%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.56%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.19%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.19%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.19%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.99%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.14%[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]Oct[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.19%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.89%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.60%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.94%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.38%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.93%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.38%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.38%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.94%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.89%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.19%[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]Nov[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.18%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.35%)
 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.05%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.49%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.75%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.65%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.05%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.49%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.49%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.05%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.18%[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: left"]YTD[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]1.69%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"] (1.13%) [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]29.17%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]34.40%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]20.32%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]6.51%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]9.48%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]10.26%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]19.19%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]11.48%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]11.75%[/TD]

It looks like all of the LMBF family of methods have done well for themselves again this month as they come off of the September lows. Do you remember September? The low for the LMBF methods was actually in August, but we were low in September as most of the methods were in the safety of the G Fund again while missing the relief rally for the second time. I was ready to give up after that, but as I pointed out back then, this had happened before only to finish the year well off their lows. It now looks like it is doing so again.

November follows October with some more impressive results. LMBF, LMBF-1, & SIM nailed it by spending November in the winning fund, the C Fund, and so they remained there in December. As I pointed out in a previous post, it is a rare occurrence for the C Fund to be the best fund for two consecutive months. It's never happened to LMBF before and it only happened once before to LMBF-1.

C>S & CI>S were in the S Fund which came in second place not too far behind the C Fund. Being in the S Fund didn't pay off this time, but that didn't hurt them too badly as the relative standing of the various methods hasn't changed from the previous month. It doesn't pay off every time but just enough to keep it ahead of LMBF-1 apparently.

As for LMWF, it missed out on the gains from equities again by being in the G Fund for the second month in a row. At least it wasn't in the F Fund which was the looser. Of course that means that's where it's headed for December. It is still ahead of all but one of the LMBF family, though, so we can't take too many pot shots at it.

Finally, we have the C, S, & I Funds themselves which are the clear winners this year. If you had held any one of these this year you would be ahead of all these methods. But then every year is different and January starts a new year. :)

Is anyone interested in following these methods in 2014? I can continue to post the IFTs here if you like. If you also want it on the AutoTracker for better accountability I can look into that too. My only hesitancy with that is with my schedule I may not be around at the end of each month to record the IFTs. Anyone can post them on this thread, but we would have to have backups if we went with the AT. I'm not connected 24 x 7 like many people here seem to be.
 
Cactus, if you would keep up with it the best you can, it would be most appreciated. I think there are many who follow this, and other threads, but never speak up or post. Which is fine. I just like to throw my 2 cents in and also acknowledge when someone else puts in an effort.
 
OK, I have added the following four methods to the TSP AutoTracker.

  1. LMBF1 Day
  2. LMBF1 SIM
  3. LMBF1 C>S
  4. LMBF1 CI>S
Note that I am calling "LMBF-1" "LMBF1 Day" on the AT. I did this because it will show IFTs a day before LMBF and I didn't want someone mistaking the two with a casual glance and making the wrong trade. Hopefully this will make it clear enough. Tom also had to remove the '-' in front of the '1' as it wouldn't take it otherwise.

Here is a reminder of how the four methods work:

LMBF1 Day: Look up the results of the 5 TSP funds on the next-to-last trading day of the month and IFT into the fund with the highest return before noon eastern on the last trading day of the month.

LMBF1 SIM: Follow "LMBF1 Day" Nov - April and the F Fund May - Oct.

LMBF1 C>S: Same as "LMBF1 Day" except choose the S Fund when the C Fund is the best.

LMBF1 CI>S: Same as "LMBF1 Day" except choose the S Fund when the C or I Fund is the best.
 
Here are the monthly returns as of 12/30/13.


[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: left"] Date [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] G FUND [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] F FUND [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] C FUND [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] S FUND [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] I FUND [/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: left"] 30-Dec-2013 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]0.19%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"] (0.44%)
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]2.13%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CC00, align: right"]2.51% [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]1.40%[/TD]

The best fund is S so the following IFTs take place before noon eastern tomorrow, 12/31/13:

LMBF-1 changes from the C Fund to the S Fund
LMBF-1 SIM changes from the C Fund to the S Fund
LMBF-1 C>S remains in the S Fund
LMBF-1 CI>S remains in the S Fund
 
Staying in the S Fund... been following the LMBF-1 C>S and enjoying the returns. Happy New Year ya'll!
 
Also, I don't remember when I switched from LMBF to LMBF-1 C>S.. spring 2013 but figured my return for the year.... 22.21% Damn good!
 
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