All In or Fold?

This is the first time I've seen it and it's notable. The Top 50 has a 100% stock allocation going into Monday's action. No G or F fund holdings. The herd on the other hand, is moving to safety.



Here's the charts:




Pretty self explanatory. Bullish? Maybe. The Seven Sentinels remain in a buy condition as does our sentiment survey. And given how much cash the herd has raised, I'd have to think that's bullish too.




It looks like the "glass is half full" folks are now in the upper half of the charts, while the "glass is half empty" folks are are in the bottom half. We may get some selling as we are certainly overextended, but with a total stock allocation of only 36.19% I doubt any downside will be deep. That's the smallest stock allocation I've seen since I've been posting these charts. My guess is there are too many folks on the sidelines now, which may limit any selling pressure. But it could get interesting as some sentiment surveys are much more bullish than ours so volatility may be on the horizon again.

 

[PessOptimist]

Interesting. How many of the top 50 are relatively new members of both TSPTalk and the autotracker? Not saying that would necessarily mean anything.

Nit-picking, the cash v stocks doesn't seem to follow the percent in funds graph.

 

[Guest]

I'm a newbie here. Could someone take a second and explain some of the terms that are used here. "Top 50", "Herd", "Sentinels"?

Thanks

 

[James48843]

to "unregistered". Please register, and then we know who we are talking with.

Top 50: Those who's % return for 2012 in the autotracker is the top 50 out of all the folks out there.

Herd: the great unwashed masses of us all- otherwise know as the rest of us who aren't in the top 50.

The seven sentinels: You have to register and hang out a while on coolhands account talk and you'll see.

Enjoy.

 

[James48843]

to "unregistered". Please register, and then we know who we are talking with.

Top 50: Those who's % return for 2012 in the autotracker is the top 50 out of all the folks out there.

Herd: the great unwashed masses of us all- otherwise know as the rest of us who aren't in the top 50.

The seven sentinels: You have to register and hang out a while on coolhands account talk and you'll see.

read the top of the page on Coolhand's blog:
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blog.php?422-Seven-Sentinels-for-TSP

Enjoy.

 

[Show-me]

If we had a top 50 year over year instead of year to date, that would be a different and more accurate picture. Tom!

 

[coolhand]

Sometimes when I save a graph it doesn't actually get saved. I usually look them over before I post them, but failed to do that today. The graph is still from last week. I'll fix it.

Interesting. How many of the top 50 are relatively new members of both TSPTalk and the autotracker? Not saying that would necessarily mean anything.

Nit-picking, the cash v stocks doesn't seem to follow the percent in funds graph.

 

[crommie]

Very true Show-me or even a "last years Top 50" or " Past Five Year Top 50"...

 

[coolhand]

Wecome to my blog.

James gave you the link to my Seven Sentinels, which should answer that question on a basic level. The charts I've posted this evening are taken from our Autotracker. That's the vehicle we use to track everyone's progress in their TSP account. Right now there are almost 900 participants, which is a pretty good sized group. I chart how the Top 50 is positioned going into each new trading week as well as the entire list of TSPers. I refer to the whole group as "the herd", which is market slang for the general masses who are actively managing their accounts.

Many of us use sentiment to gauge market character moving forward. Sentiment is taken via a vote. These charts show us what we are actually doing with our accounts rather than how it's reflected in our sentiment. The two can vary to some extent.

Check out Tom's weekly sentiment survey and read up on how it's used. It will help you gain a bit more perspective.

There are also threads on the message board that offer more information. Here's the one for sentiment.

I hope this helps.

to "unregistered". Please register, and then we know who we are talking with.

Top 50: Those who's % return for 2012 in the autotracker is the top 50 out of all the folks out there.

Herd: the great unwashed masses of us all- otherwise know as the rest of us who aren't in the top 50.

The seven sentinels: You have to register and hang out a while on coolhands account talk and you'll see.

Enjoy.

 

[PessOptimist]

Show-me, if you feel the need to get that data, compare the top 50 today with the 2011 Final link on the Auto Tracker page. That will tell you who is new this year or new during last year. In the mean time, maybe Tom may do it but I'm not sure of the value added except for answering idle questions like mine.

 

[coolhand]

I'm not sure how much value is really added by tracking the Top 50 through a calendar year. I'm almost certain that the Top 50 as it was comprised at the end of 2011 is mostly cash right now and that contrasts sharply with the current group. But that doesn't necessarily mean the 2011 group is correct in its positioning. There are weeks where the Top 50 is out of synch with the market regardless. Given the market has gone almost straight up for the last month, it's not surprising that the current Top 50 is all stocks. That's what's working right now.

 

[WorkFE]

That's is kinda of the reason BCS pols don't come out early in the season. Not enough info so programs early on were judged historically.
I do however eye the top 50. Not as much as I track the top 50 finishers of last year but I do.
It's early, it needs to play out as the market gains and loses. As of right now we've pretty much only seen one side.

 

[Happy_Trails]

It's deceiving to say that everyone not in the top 50 for the month of January is the herd.

 

[coolhand]

The total tracker charts include the Top 50. We're all part of the herd.

Moo.

It's deceiving to say that everyone not in the top 50 for the month of January is the herd.

 

[Happy_Trails]

The total tracker charts include the Top 50. We're all part of the herd.

Moo.

That makes sense.

 

[locomotion_futball]

Is there any way for the Top 50 to be listed as the Top 50 of the previous 12 running months, rather than YTD? Wouldn't this be a little more consistant and useful than YTD? Strictly speaking from a computer illetrate type that would not know how to process the codes to draw that data set.

That makes sense.

 

[Happy_Trails]

Is there any way for the Top 50 to be listed as the Top 50 of the previous 12 running months, rather than YTD? Wouldn't this be a little more consistant and useful than YTD? Strictly speaking from a computer illetrate type that would not know how to process the codes to draw that data set.

Not sure about that but I think they give out prizes and such to the top finishers each calendar year. It might be interesting to leave the yearly tracker as is but add a historic tracker as far back as possible to add some perspective. It would be interesting to know, for example, who has done the best over the last five years.

 

[coolhand]

Is there any way for the Top 50 to be listed as the Top 50 of the previous 12 running months, rather than YTD? Wouldn't this be a little more consistant and useful than YTD? Strictly speaking from a computer illetrate type that would not know how to process the codes to draw that data set.

I can only process the data that's presented in the tracker and the tracker itself is managed by Tom.

Part of the reason for the annual reset is to let folks start off with a clean slate again. Otherwise many might drop off the list. It's a competition thing.