alevin's account talk

[alevin]

I love rainbows and sunshine, fog. Rainbows only come with rain and sun combined. Life is to be lived and appreciated, rain or shine.

 

[alevin]

Hello, helloooo! Been awhile since I posted one of the charts I watch on a regular basis. mainly because those charts have been extremely boring for awhile. finally a pop- indicating a drop is coming soon. What I've come to realize after studying behavior of these charts for some time now, is that movement up or down from midline, indicates some volatility is coming soon, headed the opposite direction. how long that opposite direction goes for, the charts won't absolutely guarantee. Once indicator returns to the midline (mean), it could go either direction from there, and may take longer than one could imagine to pop or drop from the midline. or could pop or drop extremely rapidly and then resume direction it was headed prior to the revisit to the midline.

It's a volatility indicator. midline indicates temporary stability, could be short duration, could be medium duration. was medium duration for awhile now, but that stability is about to shift, it would seem. caution in order. Here you go. something to consider, glad I'm in G at the moment. YMMV. P.S. I pay most attention to the 10 x 20 MA chart movement, which is still sitting on the midline. this is the 5 x 10MA chart. shorter-term volatility indicator. consider it an earlier warning signal. not as strong but still useful.

 

[ravensfan]

Thanks alevin, appreciate the analysis. I use the 10 and 20 SMA as well in my crossover strategy, which I started using at the beginning of the year. So far it has served me well.

All the best to you and good luck with your investments.

 

[alevin]

So I'm reading the thread about uncertain continuance/disappearance of the FERS Supplement under the current Congress and Administration....decided not to clog it up with my personal issues, since I've got a lot of thoughts going on the subject right now.

I'd prefer to see grandfathering, myself, since recently I've discovered a degree of motivation to disappear over the horizon into the retirement sunset sooner than 62, but I've also been running calculations on staying til 62 anyway, which is 1.5+ years away for me.

Right now the tsp kitty isn't big enough yet to support new mortgage for 50% of my solo-farmette/1-2 other small side business ideas I've been contemplating for some time. My fault for being too risk averse since the Great Recession, which I managed to sidestep, otherwise I'd probably have what I need for that plan longterm right now. The plan would be to pay off the mortgage by the time SS gets cut down to 75% of current estimates, with shoestring startup operational funds for the first few years and have farmette up and turning at least enough profit to pay the property taxes on the place by the time the mortgage is paid off.

OTH, I have an offer to go work post-retirement for someone else's ranch-centered sustainable farm idea that is currently still in the works. thing is their funds are entangled at the moment though possibly unentangled shortly. Their desired location is in a higher-cost of living locale than where I was contemplating starting up solo operation. I think market-rate wages for their job opportunity shortterm would not offset what I would have for retirement funding longterm, if I stayed another year and a half as a fed, which is starting to look more possible lately. I like the idea of having an option to still go solo in a different location, after giving their idea a decent amount of my life energy for a short handful of years, while I still have life energy and health enough to get going solo if I wish for a few more years after that. Still takes money honey, money I'd be able to accumulate with fair certainty if I stick around a little longer, in amounts that would make the solo operation just barely doable with profit if careful, based on my best current calculations.

Travel from their preferred locale would be a lot more challenging in wintertime for dealing with 2 quite aged and infirm parents short-notice with the alternate opportunity. Another major factor in decisionmaking at this point in time.

Timing is everything. The prospective new employers and I haven't gotten down to brass tacks on timing yet, since they are still in property-acquisition mode for the time being.

So many things to factor into the equation. Eeek. I'll get it figured out, I know. Just don't know yet which way I'll jump or when right now. Jump direction may dictate timing, or timing may dictate jump direction. could go either way at this point.

 

[alevin]

Options for retirement activity still options, no new developments there. Excellent article at the link-market cycles, economic cycles-big picture stuff. I was still so new at understanding market movements and reasons for them when I first began reading this guys blog, wish I had understood then and acted on then what I've finally begun to understand by now. so many things to learn and apply, time flies.

Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis: The Acrobats: Why the Central-Bank-Driven "Prosperity" MUST Eventually End

 

[alevin]

has it really been that long since I did any dusting in here? kinda resembles the real house. I resemble PO's commentary in his account thread at this point. static allocations, no time or energy to put into moving the furniture. wearing 3 hats at work this year, plus a small piece of a 4th hat that is currently without a head to wear it. Multiple family members with serious medical conditions including an 85yo parent or two. all long distance. Been trying to free up my July-August for intermittent work travel, but that time may get diverted to family travel necessities.

Family leave may be an option to integrate with temporary work relocation possibility. rather up in the air at this point. garden? I'm planting it this weekend, the hopeless hapless optimist in me says if I don't, well, that's a pessimist's choice, even though more seeds and plants where those come from, a waste of time and energy this year? remains to be seen, no guarantees in life. I'm going ahead and planting for the just in case. Options are always good, keep them open. Optimism says maybe the family leave won't be needed after all.

 

[alevin]

It's an exciting afternoon when you get off the phone with your mom, talking about finally getting down to downsizing their multi-story home that they are 95% of the way to not being able to live in safely anymore due to infirmities, and start to go outside to finish cutting the lawn in the front yard only to discover 7 fire/ambulance/electric company vehicles parked directly in front of your house and smoke billowing from the back of the house on the corner, 1 diagonal across the street from you. Next thing, I notice backyard sprinkler not sprinkling like I had it doing, and then the alarm starts beeping to tell me there is a power outage. Smoke billowed from back of the neighbor's house for next 2 hours, the emergency workers left a little bit ago, I'm back to finishing cutting the lawn. 2d fire in a year within 1-2 houses of me, the other one burned beyond repair next door a little over a year ago. I know what caused that fire, don't know yet what caused this fire. Older couple, several younger family members showed up to lend moral support after the fact, I don't know the neighbors very well, they stick to themselves. The husband and I have talked a couple times over the fence in years past. Just another magic Monday.

 

[nasa1974]

It's an exciting afternoon when you get off the phone with your mom, talking about finally getting down to downsizing their multi-story home that they are 95% of the way to not being able to live in safely anymore due to infirmities, and start to go outside to finish cutting the lawn in the front yard only to discover 7 fire/ambulance/electric company vehicles parked directly in front of your house and smoke billowing from the back of the house on the corner, 1 diagonal across the street from you. Next thing, I notice backyard sprinkler not sprinkling like I had it doing, and then the alarm starts beeping to tell me there is a power outage. Smoke billowed from back of the neighbor's house for next 2 hours, the emergency workers left a little bit ago, I'm back to finishing cutting the lawn. 2d fire in a year within 1-2 houses of me, the other one burned beyond repair next door a little over a year ago. I know what caused that fire, don't know yet what caused this fire. Older couple, several younger family members showed up to lend moral support after the fact, I don't know the neighbors very well, they stick to themselves. The husband and I have talked a couple times over the fence in years past. Just another magic Monday.

Lot more exciting than my day.

 

[evilanne]

has it really been that long since I did any dusting in here? kinda resembles the real house. I resemble PO's commentary in his account thread at this point. static allocations, no time or energy to put into moving the furniture. wearing 3 hats at work this year, plus a small piece of a 4th hat that is currently without a head to wear it. Multiple family members with serious medical conditions including an 85yo parent or two. all long distance. Been trying to free up my July-August for intermittent work travel, but that time may get diverted to family travel necessities.

Family leave may be an option to integrate with temporary work relocation possibility. rather up in the air at this point. garden? I'm planting it this weekend, the hopeless hapless optimist in me says if I don't, well, that's a pessimist's choice, even though more seeds and plants where those come from, a waste of time and energy this year? remains to be seen, no guarantees in life. I'm going ahead and planting for the just in case. Options are always good, keep them open. Optimism says maybe the family leave won't be needed after all.

Sending positive wishes for you and your family. Aging parent(s) can be challenging. Remember to take care of yourself.

 

[alevin]

Wow, so much has happened since last posted in this poor neglected thread. Lost my dad summer 2018, complications from a fall backwards down the stairs of their house right in front of me while I was there to provide eldercare for him. Departed earth a couple months after that last post, a week apart from when jpcavin lost our dear friend burrocrat, so I had much to mourn that summer. Spent next several months relocating elderly mother to a safer home situation, good thing I had lots of annual and sickleave built up and personal goodstanding with employer. sister in FL was going through cancer treatment same time, good thing she had an in-law there to help her through that, my hands were full. sis is currently clear of cancer, thankfully after all she went through with chemo and rad.

longdistance intermittent eldercare for me since then, brought her here with me for this second winter, she didn't want to come last winter. multiple reasons, not least the bevy of specialty doctors in her healthcare stable where she normally lives. life sure can change on a dime when you least expect. will reassess the situation in the spring.

I've had no time or energy to focus on markets for quite some time, but tiptoeing back in with new tsp contributions this year, last year I expect to be able to make contributions if all goes according to current desires. still quite conservative allocating back into the market environment as it exists. insanity, what the Fed is doing and has been doing for far far far far tooooo long. It will come back to haunt us all when we least expect. My 2 cents. feels good to be able to talk about it here again tho, got that much energy back for the market finally.

 

[Scout333]

God bless you Alevin! Caregiving is not for wimps! Every morning you wake up you never know what the day will bring and what medical and other challenges will arrive unexpectedly! I pray your mom will agree to move closer to you so it will be easier for you to look after her. Parents tend to be pretty stubborn. Mine had dementia and Alzheimers and we took care of her for 18 years. Don't think she ever agreed with a single decision at first but eventually would give in. Will pray for you! Best of luck!

 

[alevin]

thanks for the kind words Scout. I was hoping to be retired before faced eldercare, but you know the old sayings have been around a long long time because they are based in reality. Life happens while....., ....Best laid plans of mice and....., Plan A, yes, but have a Plan B too. My annual and sickleave balances have always been my Plan B. Good thing I have had a Plan B the past 2 years. Drawn down those balances bigtime will ultimately impact my non-tsp retirement income, but money isn't everything (another old saying). Keep on swimming, as Dorrie would say (NOT an old saying). :laugh:

 

[alevin]

It's time I dusted off this verrry dusty account. Life went kinda sideways/downhill these past few years, lost brother in 17, dad in 18, mom at Christmas last year, difficult stories behind each of their passings. I'm finally at the doorstep to retirement. Just in time to not face ultimatums coming from on high. The tsp account has been pretty inactive these past few years, not enough emotional/mental energy to spare due to longdistance eldercare and subsequent estate resolution matters while still working. I have to say that being allowed/required to work from home has not been a bad thing for me, certainly helped with eldercare for 3 of the past 4 years, being able to have parent in my home or me in their home, depending on the year.

time approaches in next few weeks of pulling some funds prior to retirement to ensure that any shutdowns or delays at OPM dont find me in a shortterm financial bind. Still searching for the right retirement property that I can actually afford given screaming real estate prices these past few years while I was trying to save for a 20% down, early retirement cushion and still max out tsp funding from paychecks, not to mention a few other out of the ordinary ongoing expenses that I consider investments in human capital now and future-family related.

Meanwhile some food for thought to sample and possibly digest. https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?blog=Market-Ticker-Nad

 

[weatherweenie]

Sorry for your losses.

It's time I dusted off this verrry dusty account. Life went kinda sideways/downhill these past few years, lost brother in 17, dad in 18, mom at Christmas last year, difficult stories behind each of their passings. I'm finally at the doorstep to retirement. Just in time to not face ultimatums coming from on high. The tsp account has been pretty inactive these past few years, not enough emotional/mental energy to spare due to longdistance eldercare and subsequent estate resolution matters while still working. I have to say that being allowed/required to work from home has not been a bad thing for me, certainly helped with eldercare for 3 of the past 4 years, being able to have parent in my home or me in their home, depending on the year.

time approaches in next few weeks of pulling some funds prior to retirement to ensure that any shutdowns or delays at OPM dont find me in a shortterm financial bind. Still searching for the right retirement property that I can actually afford given screaming real estate prices these past few years while I was trying to save for a 20% down, early retirement cushion and still max out tsp funding from paychecks, not to mention a few other out of the ordinary ongoing expenses that I consider investments in human capital now and future-family related.

Meanwhile some food for thought to sample and possibly digest. https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?blog=Market-Ticker-Nad

 

[nasa1974]

Sorry to hear about your brother and parents. I hope better times are ahead.

 

[Scout333]

Sorry for your losses! It is good to hear from you! Eldercare is no joke. Really stressful on all concerned! My wife and I spent most of the last 25 years taking care of our mothers. Even with sufficient financial resources it is extremely difficult to manage. Congratulations on the pending retirement!
Scout

 

[alevin]

thank you all for the condolences. There have been bright spots on this side of last December that were completely unexpected and are proving uplifting in terms of making new friends and reconnecting with a very longago college friend as a side benefit of providing eldercare for my mom during the times she was still able to be in her own home. Life had gotten kinda narrowed down there for awhile, not much time for more than family concerns. But even us introverts need time with friends. It's important to make that time, even if just an hour here and there by phone, even better when in person.

 

[evilanne]

Alevin, Congrats on your upcoming retirement!

You might find this interesting. https://youtu.be/WFph7-6t34M?t=15608
First half is Government, second half is Open Public Hearing Session at 4 Hrs 20 minutes there are 2 short presentations that were interesting, data from Israel and India as your link also showed are very interesting.

 

[alevin]

Hi ho and away I went! Been retired a whole whopping week now and so far absoluuuutely no regrets, no looking back whatsoever. Took me til now to know with inner certainty that I could leave without looking back, without guilt. Left tracks as best I could for the next person to fill my shoes, got a new guy started best I could, filled in the supervisor on work that others would need to pick up and finish (there's always something in the works that you can't quite get off the plate due to other high priority tasks competing for time remaining), connected the new guy with people he needs to work with external to our agency on shared interests, etc etc. The traditional retirement party wasn't happening, but we made do with an onlined video get together.

My high 3 should have worked out as max 36 months, since I retired a month after the 3year aversary of my last step at grade, no further steps possible without a new grade, which would have meant moving into supervisory role and relocation, I had no interest therein at my age. Medicare Part B decision is the next step in a few months, FWIW. working on estate matters for the parents still, so no rest for the newly retired, just more time and attention available to finish the "other" job. cheers to everyone approachng the day, go when you know you are really really ready, if you can, no fear. :smile:

 

[nnuut]

Alevin CONGRATULATION on your Retirement!!! I Retired in 2010 and have enjoyed it, I hope you do the same!