Afraid of heights?

05/16/13

The stock market has a way of making the most people look bad as possible, and this relentless rally is doing just that as it continues to be the most unloved rally I've seen in a long time.

The Dow gained another 60-points on the day as the larger stocks seemed to fare better, and the I-fund lagged with the dollar still rallying.

[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
051613.gif
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 156"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0035%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.02%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.54%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.35%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.28%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 has been up 9 of the last 10 days, and 16 of the last 19. The overhead resistance has broken and held for a second day.

051613a.gif

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Nasdaq is also flying and leading as you would want to see in a bull market.

051613b.gif

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The dollar, which for a few years was in a clear inverse relationship with stocks, made new multi-months highs, yet stocks have not faded. Sounds bullish.

051613c.gif

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Some indicators are hitting extremes but the question is, will the market and investors care? Despite sentiment surveys telling us that the dumb money is still very skeptical of the rally, the put/call ratios are showing us that both the dumb money and the smart money are on the bullish side - with the smart money hitting bullish levels not seen since 2010.

051613d.gif

Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk

I always say when both the smart and the dumb money are bullish, it is a red flag, but what do I know? The market just keeps moving higher.

The NYSE saw 536 stocks hit a 52-week new high yesterday. That's most since late 2010.

051613e.gif

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

We've seen a couple readings come close to this level since then - one in 2012 and one earlier this month. The one 2012 was near a market peak while the one earlier this year had no effect. The one in 2010 also came near a short-term market peak.

Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary

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I can't wait to see what happens when the FED pulls the plug on this market. Is there any reason for it to stop until then?
 
Maybe not, although they are started to talk about back peddling on the QE, and nothing happened... yet
 
Isn't there several open gaps that need to get filled.... do the gaps sometimes never get filled?
 
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