A Study of Your Returns

[Birchtree]

Skypilot,

Since you've been around today, is your couch available? I'm seeking guidance. My travails lately are reminiscent of the DMA days and you know what happened to him. When a youngster who has no time in grade has the audacity to chastise my investment utterances as garbage; the only recrimination or allowable recourse I have is to bend over and show my tatoos. Should I search for repenitence and do some penance or just give them the horns?

Dennis - permabull #1

 

[ChemEng]

Replying to yourself now?

 

[SkyPilot]

Skypilot,

Since you've been around today, is your couch available? I'm seeking guidance. My travails lately are reminiscent of the DMA days and you know what happened to him. When a youngster who has no time in grade has the audacity to chastise my investment utterances as garbage; the only recrimination or allowable recourse I have is to bend over and show my tatoos. Should I search for repenitence and do some penance or just give them the horns?

Dennis - permabull #1

Unfortunately, that which seems to promise the most gratification usually renders an unsatisfying harvest.

In that you have already identified that the source of the irritation is without serious substance, I suggest that you lend no further credence and stem the tide.

It may not provide the exhilaration of a prolonged contest, but the personal growth that accompanies the developed ability to dismiss such offenses is it's own reward.

and it that doesn't work, spit on him ...

 

[Birchtree]

I knew I could find the right couch - thanks for the guidance. I'll save the tatoos.

 

[Desperado]

However, as you are confident in your "theology" of "buy and hold", then the next step is to identify your allocations, thus establishing what you say is true over time.

...

I suppose I could come up with the closest thing to my allocation using only the TSP (although it wouldn't actually reflect my true TSP investment returns since as I mentioned I hold investments elsewhere that contribute to my asset allocation,) and post that. It would work out to about 25% G, 25% I, 20% C, and 30% S. I'll throw my hat in the ring come Jan 1, but remember, my goal isn't to come out on top, it is to come out above average. With that allocation (which I have held for the last couple of years, BTW), I would have gotten 8.66% in 2005 (beating 67% of you) and 13.87% so far this year (beating 58% of you.) All without a single trade all year or any insight into the future of the markets.

 

[TiCKed]

Just a quick comment since I really don't have a horse in the race. (Basically I'm a buy and holder with a wee bit of flare occasionally).

I would suggest that the "failure" of some to perform as well as some buy and hold allocations is NOT due to people being "too agressive", but rather from people being "too conservative" and concerned about drops in the market.

Many people jump to the G fund when things get hairy, when in fact this year (and possibly this year is an oddity), those hairy times have been short lived and not very severe.

Give this same group of people a strong bear market, and the results just might be very different.

Just a thought.

(And I think self assessment is a good thing....I just don't know that desperado is really adding anything that our weekly and monthly trackers aren't already providing. Desperado is just a little more direct in his presentation).

 

[Birchtree]

Man, if you don't have any insites into the future of the markets - your alliance won't help. I'll continue to defend the honor alone. It's better that way.

 

[sugarandspice]

Welcome to the monkey house!

 

[SkyPilot]

I suppose I could come up with the closest thing to my allocation using only the TSP

Many of the participants who post here have a variety of investments outside of TSP. Your analysis is based on what has been posted, without regard to any additional potential investments of the participants.

Your TSP data must stand by itself in order to make a comparative analysis. Don't equivocate.

 

[sugarandspice]

I suppose I could come up with the closest thing to my allocation using only the TSP (although it wouldn't actually reflect my true TSP investment returns since as I mentioned I hold investments elsewhere that contribute to my asset allocation,) and post that. It would work out to about 25% G, 25% I, 20% C, and 30% S. I'll throw my hat in the ring come Jan 1, but remember, my goal isn't to come out on top, it is to come out above average. With that allocation (which I have held for the last couple of years, BTW), I would have gotten 8.66% in 2005 (beating 67% of you) and 13.87% so far this year (beating 58% of you.) All without a single trade all year or any insight into the future of the markets.

Quite frankly, no one really gives a monkey's banana about your other investments or anyone else's for that matter. This is a TSP site and we are mainly focused on that. Just post your allocation and cut the monkeying around. "It would work out to about...." It's exact. And it adds up to 100%. TSP doesn't ask about "how much do you want to invest in the C fund?" Post it.

 

[Birchtree]

Somebody on this thread today mentioned liquid excrement - I'm sure glad I don't have bartholins. Must take one to know one.

 

[SkiUtah]

The deeper the discourse on TSP, the higher the market goes...amazing.

 

[Desperado]

Quite frankly, no one really gives a monkey's banana about your other investments or anyone else's for that matter. This is a TSP site and we are mainly focused on that. Just post your allocation and cut the monkeying around. "It would work out to about...." It's exact. And it adds up to 100%. TSP doesn't ask about "how much do you want to invest in the C fund?" Post it.

Whatever floats your boat. I use a similar spreadsheet to track my returns including Roth accounts, taxable accounts etc. I subtract out taxes and transaction costs and produce a dollar-weighted return for my entire portfolio. I honestly could care less what the TSP portion by itself returns. What I am most interested in is what my total return is and whether or not that will suffice to meet my financial goals. But if you would prefer me to post my actual TSP funds, I could do that instead.

Now, a more important question...how many of you track your dollar-weighted returns, subtracting out your investment expenses and taxes? (Don't forget to include that subscription to RevShark's newsletter and whatever Bob Brinker is charging these days.)

 

[Birchtree]

Merrill Lynch kindly does mine. Ms. Aspartame would be interested to know that my last month's statement was 108 pages long - whew! That counts both front and back and is mostly due to dividend reinvestments. Those darn things seem to just run on and on.

 

[Oldcoin]

Merrill Lynch kindly does mine. Ms. Aspartame would be interested to know that my last month's statement was 108 pages long - whew! That counts both front and back and is mostly due to dividend reinvestments. Those darn things seem to just run on and on.

An artificial sweetener, C14H18N2O5, formed from aspartic acid.

I’m improving my vocabulary as well as my TSP balance.

 

[SkyPilot]

But if you would prefer me to post my actual TSP funds, I could do that instead.

Bingo! All other participants are posting their actual returns. However, you could pick your "dream" allocation and post that, who's to know? It doesn't really matter, because you will not be changing it, right?

Besides, if you are a "buy and hold" investor, then other investments don't really matter, as you don't change them either.

Therefore, as you are a "buy and hold" investor, this is a constant, and your TSP holdings will produce a valid result proportionately, no matter what your other holdings are.

However, if you actually move these investments around, other than rebalancing your portfolio without regard to market conditions, then your identity as a "buy and hold" investor as you have described is called into question.

However, you might assert that your TSP holdings are allocated so as to return a lower percentage than other investments, because you have postured them as a "lower risk portfolio".

This would allow you to defend lower returns, as they are lower by design. However, I don't think that this rational will be accepted as validation that your arguments have any real merit.

And you need not wait until January. Start proving your assertions at the earliest possible opportunity.

 

[350zCommTech]

I honestly could care less what the TSP portion by itself returns.

Then why are you here? Why are you so concerned about what anybody else does with there TSP when you don't even care about yours? Why are you wasting time on this subject? What is your motive? Did you really think you could come in here and change peoples mind? Or are you concerned the we, TSP day traders/market timers, might be diluting the returns of the majority of the TSP folks who don't even bother looking at their TSP? I'm not even sure if that's possible.

 

[Desperado]

Then why are you here? Why are you so concerned about what anybody else does with there TSP when you don't even care about yours? Why are you wasting time on this subject? What is your motive? Did you really think you could come in here and change peoples mind? Or are you concerned the we, TSP day traders/market timers, might be diluting the returns of the majority of the TSP folks who don't even bother looking at their TSP? I'm not even sure if that's possible.

You're probably right that your frequent trades don't hurt me much as far as expenses go. There are simply too few people jumping in and out of funds all the time. So no, I really don't care what you individually do with your account.

I come for two reasons. First, I was hoping to find a resource where people could help provide information about the TSP that I didn't know. In some respects, I have found that, but not in this forum, and certainly not in the quantity I had hoped to find. Second, I worry novice investors stumble upon the site and think that this is the way they should be investing. I can imagine one telling himself, "Self, if you could just learn how to time like Fundsurfer, you could be a successful investor." Then the next year, when Fundsurfer does poorly and Birch happens to lead the pack, the investor says to himself, "Self, I just need a new system. Let's see what Birch did last year."

If no one preaches the simple gospel of save all you can, asset allocate, approximate the market returns, and stay the course, the forest might be missed for the trees. Investing really isn't as complicated as some here make it out to be. You can be a very successful investor without ever studying interest rate movements, currency changes, current political events, Bernanke's speeches, 200 day moving averages and just about all of technical analysis, and even most of fundamental analysis. My sisters who know virtually nothing of investing (I quote, "What's a bond again?" ) and who don't have access to the awesome TSP program, have each managed 13% returns this year (which is actually better than most of the TSPers I tracked.) Their secret? They put it in an appropriate lifecycle fund.

 

[Birchtree]

Please forgive the interruption but the reason I don't crap where I eat is because I do care about my tugboat account. I'm trying to pull down $100,000 before the year ends and off set next year with a little insurance, so I guess I'm only 98% pure as a buy and holder. Dell, I'm lonely.

 

[350zCommTech]

My sisters who know virtually nothing of investing (I quote, "What's a bond again?" ) and who don't have access to the awesome TSP program, have each managed 13% returns this year (which is actually better than most of the TSPers I tracked.) Their secret? They put it in an appropriate lifecycle fund.

Well, it's hard to argue with a buy and hold strategy when the market is in a bull run like it is right now. The stress of moving in and out might not be worth it. You mentioned that your ytd was around 13%? I take it that you rode the market down in May and rode it all the way back up?