A pause

Stocks closed mixed yesterday but came back from some early losses as the bulls are still buying the dips. The Dow gained 3-points, but it had been down about 45-points in early trading. The S&P 500 was basically flat while small caps lost some ground, and bonds were also down.

I am still out of town without my usual setup and while trying to do my analysis and write the commentary for Wednesday, I saw that decisionpoint.com and stockcharts.com were down because of data issues and had not updated their sites, so I had to use other options to gather my charts. Again, thanks for you patience if the commentaries are brief or if you've had to wait a little longer for me to respond to any issues. Thanks.
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After posting a negative reversal day on Monday, we did get the early weakness that we expected on Tuesday, but buyers steeped up and it looks like we now have a positive reversal day on the S&P 500 (C-fund). That could mean a positive open on Wednesday, but where she stops at the close, nobody knows.

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Chart provided courtesy of www.bigcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Wilshire 4500 lost 0.23% yesterday and did back off from the double top. It also closed well so we'll see if there's another attempt to make new highs this morning for the small caps.

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Chart provided courtesy of www.bigcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The VIX moved back below 11.0 on Tuesday and remains in a dangerous area. This VIX chart from sentimenTrader.com is an inverse look at the VIX and it shows that the market has struggled in the past when the VIX hits 12.0, and here it has been closer to 11.0 for a few weeks.
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Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Bonds were down yesterday and the AGG made a new lower low. Looks like a new downtrend for bonds, which actually bodes well for stocks. Or this could just be a short-term pullback that could end any day, but the chart is cracking.

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Chart provided courtesy of www.bigcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk



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Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley



Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.html

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