350Z's I Fund Thread - Sept. 07

[tsptalk]

wow... just asking for a prediction... all I heard were crickets... did I mention that which should not be mentioned???

oh wait, this is Friday and all good g-workers have "gone home" .... hehehe

I think you are right. It's quiet in here today.

 

[kar_crazy]

man i knew i should have gave blood today

 

[Minnow]

yeah, too quiet.... maybe hanging in and staying I not such a good idea -- even the thread has been abandoned ... oh well, live and learn...

any chance the dollar going down versus the yen will affect anything today/tomorrow?

maybe Greg and 350Z have gone home as well... or they might actually have lives outside of TSPtalk --- nah not possible.

 

[Minnow]

sorry, the question should have been phrased today/monday... my bad ...

 

[350zCommTech]

any chance the dollar going down versus the yen will affect anything today/tomorrow?

Actually, the dollar has been going up against the Yen all day since this morning. That's why the market is up. Sunday night/Monday will be a different story.

 

[Frixxxx]

yeah, too quiet.... maybe hanging in and staying I not such a good idea -- even the thread has been abandoned ... oh well, live and learn....

Not too quiet, 83 peeps viewing as I type. I think you are witnessing the calm before the STORM. Even the Ebbers have had a couple misses this week (including today.) Interest rates will bag the market fierce, if left untouched - IMHO. We'll see.

 

[Minnow]

350z, how do you follow that? I know Yahoo has a link but I can't do anything in Yahoo since lightning struck here earlier today?

 

[350zCommTech]

350z, how do you follow that? I know Yahoo has a link but I can't do anything in Yahoo since lightning struck here earlier today?

www.fxstreet.com

 

[Minnow]

thank you very much... have I mentioned how much I enjoy this thread even when the "I" is going down? enlightening and educational... with just the right blend of sarcasm --- we gov't workers rock

 

[ebbnflow]

Not too quiet, 83 peeps viewing as I type. I think you are witnessing the calm before the STORM. Even the Ebbers have had a couple misses this week (including today.) Interest rates will bag the market fierce, if left untouched - IMHO. We'll see.

Frixxxx, I don't mind missing a couple as long as it's just dingers. :suspicious:

 

[Minnow]

wow!!! just got through briefly scanning that site and now I must requisition a better monitor and more powerful government computer.

as always, your help is invaluable and greatly appreciated.

 

[Minnow]

Not too quiet, 83 peeps viewing as I type. I think you are witnessing the calm before the STORM. Even the Ebbers have had a couple misses this week (including today.) Interest rates will bag the market fierce, if left untouched - IMHO. We'll see.

could it be "armageddon?" -- I think we're all a bit nervous pre-FOMC meeting.

IMHO, still think the "I" may be the best play through all this. But I dunno if I wanna be there should Ben hold i.r.'s steady...

 

[Minnow]

sorry to jack this thread so much but Ebb just pointed out that Japan has a holiday monday ... I'm just way too un"I"nformed

 

[SCHAGAN]

Newbie here, been watching from the sidelines a little while. Wanted to follow Ebb from F to I yesterday but was caught in meetings. Went from F to I today instead of following the crowd into S. Thanks Ebb for giving me the earlier gains this month. Very much appreciated!

 

[Frixxxx]

could it be "armageddon?" -- I think we're all a bit nervous pre-FOMC meeting.

IMHO, still think the "I" may be the best play through all this. But I dunno if I wanna be there should Ben hold i.r.'s steady...

I really don't think he can hold steady, but even if he cuts rates, what will it really do? Postpone the inevitable?

http://money.cnn.com/2007/09/13/news/economy/fed_preview/?postversion=2007091413

350Z's post shows that the lending market is not just US only, and a ton of overseas interests are in that market as well. I think that if the fed is not showing signs of dropping on Monday will cause a panic in Japan and they will sell-off Tuesday morning. Remember, this is my opinion.

 

[12%ayear]

I posted about that before. The Fed is just the towtruck bringing the broken down car to the mechanic. The Fed can only go so far and the rest is up to the economy. Recession will occur IMO Look around, Real Estate sales are sloppy, lending is scary,stores are empty, layoffs are increasing, oil is higher,markets have been on a tear since March 2003, the start of the Iraq War. The business cycle has extended itself. Globally, the OSMs are even worse. They really have not experienced a huge sell-off since the EURO came to power. Look at the mortgage crisis expanding overseas like London today. There are alot more hidden skeltons in those closets waiting to come out. The Fed does not have the magic power. They could cut all day and if consumers are hurt, they will not spend. Bottom-line, it has to work itself out like a bad flu. TIME heals not cuts.

 

[Frixxxx]

They could cut all day and if consumers are hurt, they will not spend. Bottom-line, it has to work itself out like a bad flu. TIME heals not cuts.

Couldn't agree more 12%, you probably did hear echoes of your monologue in my post (see, somebody listens!)

I was joking with a colleague that the only way to get out of this one is to come up with a .5% loan over 50 year to make buying a house here in Cali possible!

Don't see anyone going for that anytime soon!

 

[clester]

Boy, I've never heard such doom and gloom. That's all I heard on CNBC today. All that stuff is already baked in the cake IMHO. The reaction to Black Rock today seems to tell me that the correction is over. Back up the truck!

 

[350zCommTech]

More lenders expected to get hit by the liquidity crisis.

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Northern Rock isn't alone in facing funding worries in the liquidity crisis -- plenty of U.K. mortgage banks use wholesale markets to finance their lending -- though others have already arranged deals that will at least see them through the next few months. The problem is nobody foresaw the crunch and nobody has any real idea how long it will last. And if the wholesale market is still effectively shut when the funding arranged by other banks starts to dry up, they could be forced down a similar route to Northern Rock, analysts said.

Dave Jones, group finance director at Northern Rock said he expects the liquidity crisis to hit other mortgage lenders, though he stopped short of saying others would likely need to borrow from the central bank.
"Ultimately, depending on how long this goes on for, other lenders will have to slow growth," he told analysts on a conference call.

Northern Rock's CEO Adam Applegarth, who trained as economist, told analysts he has no idea how long it will be before liquidity returns.
"Frankly, life changed on Aug. 9 virtually like snapping your finger," Applegarth said. "It's an astonishing thing to see."

 

[350zCommTech]

Boy, I've never heard such doom and gloom. That's all I heard on CNBC today. All that stuff is already baked in the cake IMHO. The reaction to Black Rock today seems to tell me that the correction is over. Back up the truck!

The only thing that's baked in the cake is a .25% cut.

Lets hear you case on why you think the correction is over.