350Z's I Fund Thread - Sept. 07

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Frixxxx said:
I was joking with a colleague that the only way to get out of this one is to come up with a .5% loan over 50 year to make buying a house here in Cali possible!

Don't see anyone going for that anytime soon!:cool:
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Don't laugh. When Japan economy tanked, they began deflationary prices, zero interest rates, and jacked mortgage time frames way out. I remember in the early 1980's when Japan commonly had 50 year mortgages.

IN fact, there is discussion of the 50-year mortgage now:
http://forums.kiplinger.com/showthread.php?t=4895

If we hit a real hard wall- you never know. You COULD see low rate loans on 50 year terms.....
 
350zCommTech said:
The only thing that's baked in the cake is a .25% cut.

Lets hear you case on why you think the correction is over.
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One big point is just the level of fear. Contrarian wise thats bullish.
Also, the credit market stuff has been around for about 6 weeks. I think everyone already know that danger. The housing market has been in trouble for awhile now too. My point is the news is old news. Everyone that wanted to sell on those items has already sold. The shorts are scared.

The fed is going to cut rates. That should spur the economy. Remember the stock market looks at least 6 months out.

But, then again what do I know. Anyway its just my humble opinion. Take it for whats its worth. Probably Nothing.
 
Contrarian.....what a term. In other words....based on all the data and research the markets are supposed to do one thing so we are going to invest completely against that. Interesting.
 
Robo5555 said:
Contrarian.....what a term. In other words....based on all the data and research the markets are supposed to do one thing so we are going to invest completely against that. Interesting.
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Not invest against the research. I think the idea is more about sentiment. Buy when it seems the worst. If everyone thinks the world will end soon, we're probably at the bottom. Have I got the concept wrong?

Don't go by me. Probably best to use me as a contrarian. You all are doing a lot better than me. Like I said. My opinion is not worth much. Probably should keep my mouth shut.:(
 
Did you know that annual euro-zone inflation slowed unexpectedly in August to 1.7% - below a previously released flash estimate of 1.8% and below economists expectations? The result was the 12th straight month that inflation has come in below the European Central Bank's target of close to, but below 2.0%. Do you think this is probably as good as it gets on the inflation front - hardly. The consensus thinks elevated oil prices and less favorable base effects will drive energy-price inflation higher in the coming months and will push the headline rate back towards 2%. A renegade contrarian such as myself thinks the pattern has been solidly in place for a continuation of low euro-zone inflation. I'll keep nibbling the I fund for fun.
 
Robo5555 said:
Contrarian.....what a term. In other words....based on all the data and research the markets are supposed to do one thing so we are going to invest completely against that. Interesting.
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... and it's only a useful tool at extremes; 2 to 1 bulls to bears or higher is bearish, and less than 1 to 1 bulls bears is bullish. It's usually "the herd" or dumb money buying or selling the wrong side at extremes.
 
I’m sitting in the G fund wondering what is going to happen next…
I did some analysis this weekend; I’m looking for a down trend. I’m playing it safe for the short term, if we are down this week I’ll buy back in 100% I Fund. I may miss the boat but we are bouncing all over the place right now.
Scott
 
I said this was serious...

European stocks fall, Northern Rock tumbles again
Mon Sep 17, 2007 3:14am EDT

PARIS, Sept 17 (Reuters) - European stocks fell in early trade on Monday, as investors remained cautious ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve rate decision due on Tuesday, while credit worries continued to hit banking shares.

British lender Northern Rock (NRK.L: Quote, Profile, Research) tumbled 34 percent, adding to its 32 percent plunge on Friday after issuing a profit warning and tapping the Bank of England for emergency funds. Scores of customers queued up over the weekend to withdraw their money from Northern Rock.

At 0704 GMT, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index (.FTEU3: Quote, Profile, Research) was down 0.55 percent, at 1,498.88. Europe's benchmark index dropped 1.1 percent on Friday.

"European markets continue to be gripped by the drama surrounding the UK banking sector and whether this may mark the start of a major downturn in the housing market," Bear Stearns analysts wrote in a note. http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINL172321420070917?rpc=44
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FTSE is taking a pounding.
UPDATE 1-Northern Rock shares plunge as woes mount
Mon Sep 17, 2007 8:34 AM BST
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By Steve Slater
LONDON, Sept 17 (Reuters) - Long queues of customers formed at branches of embattled British bank Northern Rock (NRK.L: Quote, Profile , Research) early on Monday and its shares plunged again, heightening pressure for a sale of the business or its assets. Britain's fifth-biggest mortgage lender, which on Friday was rescued by emergency Bank of England funding, said there was no need for investors or customers to panic and it remained solvent. Nevertheless, customers appeared set to continue pulling out savings and by early on Monday its shares had more than halved in value since Thursday's close.

Fears have mounted that a run of withdrawals will exacerbate the lender's funding problems, which were triggered by the global credit crunch as banks, worried about exposure to dodgy U.S. mortgage debt, jacked up the price of lending to each other.

By 0707 GMT shares in the bank fell 34 percent to 290 pence, following on from a 31 percent tumble on Friday, to cut the bank's market value to under 1.3 billion pounds ($2.6 billion). "Just short of their tenth anniversary as a plc on the October 1, we think the game is over for Northern Rock in its present form," analysts at Merrill Lynch said.
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Had a feeling this would happen this morning that is why I bailed to the F Fund. Reason being, when that England bank..NORTHEN ROCK, came out Friday with the news, the USMs ignored it. However;look at the FTSE this morning, it is getting crushed again and no way the USMs will ignore that again. Looking to go into the I or S Fund for Tuesday. Remember, the Fed news comes out 2:15. So plan for a 2 day stay..Tuesday/Wednesday. Tomorrow, the USMs and OSMs are really not opened until that time...Any action before that is meaningless....................................EarlY ESTIMATE -27 CENTS
 
Back to the subprime story again.

In Michigan (where I am), I heard this weekend that 14.7% of subprime mortgage holders are now 30 days or more behind. Prime mortgage holders are not doing well either, but only 2.3% of them are 30 days or more behind. Home prices dropping fast now too.

It's going to get uglier before it gets better....
 
Going to sit in my cave for a while!
Jump into the I & S for Wed.

Anyone see Greenspan this morning?
 
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