350Z's I fund thread OCT 07

[SkyPilot]

12%, crazy good calls... keep it up and welcome back!

 

[RPM]

Any new estimate to I fund? I guess no FV as of now!!!:laugh:

 

[Minnow]

--- I was in the john for a while... did I miss anything :laugh::laugh:

this thread is so illuminating and I'm learning so much... all you guys rock!!

--- so, is the jobs report on Friday gonna be an excuse for profit taking?

 

[fedgolfer]

LOL..The markets always overreacts when news first comes out. Allow it to sink in and think of the opposite reaction.

yup that first 15 minutes is almost always the panic sellers. Bargain hunters step in in hopes of the sqeeze... then we go too high, and then the profit takers bring it back in the next couple of days.

12, do you think there will be enough momentum to breakout above the previous highs? I'm skeptical on that with just the 25/25. But if the market feels confident in the a methodical Fed, select equities is still the place to be. 4th Quarter sentiment may kick in too.

 

[RPM]

--- --- so, is the jobs report on Friday gonna be an excuse for profit taking?

I would welcome any early analysis as well, since I won't have any access to the computer from this afternoon till Friday! Talking about being hooked

 

[Jonathan]

Any new estimate to I fund? I guess no FV as of now!!!:laugh:

Too early to say. The DJIA's rebounded above where it was at 11:36, but it's not in +fv territory yet (about +0.3% up), according to my modified ChemEng spreadsheet.

 

[350zCommTech]

This is a very nervous market. This morning's run-up may have been on the positive GDP news, and the Fed's statement contradicts that positive assessment.

That's my take. Of course, everyone has their explanation, and the only other analysis I've seen says that stocks were "irked" by a "balanced" fed approach that didn't hint much of future rate cuts.

Exactly, one voting member voted to hold. Combined that with the statement, it sounds like they wanted the markets to think that they are now "neutral".

 

[fedgolfer]

350, Think that jobs data will validate the 25/25 cut?

Why is AGG down... I guess the bond market is selling the news?

 

[12%ayear]

yup that first 15 minutes is almost always the panic sellers. Bargain hunters step in in hopes of the sqeeze... then we go too high, and then the profit takers bring it back in the next couple of days.

12, do you think there will be enough momentum to breakout above the previous highs? I'm skeptical on that with just the 25/25. But if the market feels confident in the a methodical Fed, select equities is still the place to be. 4th Quarter sentiment may kick in too.

yes, the reason is the banks and builders are still lagging behind. Any momo will easily break the news highs. Also factor in holidays sales.

 

[Jonathan]

Now up +0.4% for the DJIA above 11:36. Small caps are kicking butt

Edit: spoke too soon. My modified CE spreadsheet is saying we're in +fv territory for the DJIA.

I like today

 

[12%ayear]

Watch for the Fed to cut because of the pressure. IMO we will see triple digit gains today. Sub-prime crisis knocked the wind out of lenders and real estate. The FED knows that they have to pump up the economy first and deal with inflation later to avoid a recession. Also, holiday sales are key to the FED. The better the receipts come in, the less pressure for the FED to cut later. I see a .25% as a token and another .25% cut later before they become hawkish. Looking for 14000s. BTW, I closed my account based on obtaining a new postion at work, which did not pan out(happy about that) and it would have to do with working the overnight shift. No way I could function during the day. I refused the postion and stayed on days. Sorry if I left without an explanation. It had nothing to do with anyone or anything in here. I am back FWIW. If Tom can up my thread page that would be nice. Once again, sorry and thanks for the emails.

...Posted this morning at10:30 AM EST. Look now....triple digits and .25% basis cut.

 

[fedgolfer]

12% -- never, never, ever, ever leave this board again OR we'll find you

Love those calls!!!!!!!!

 

[James48843]

Talk about the slingshot effect!

I have NEVER seen a chart quite like today.

I'm in to win.

 

[easyrydr]

Glad to have you back 12%.

How does one get uo to the min. stock market readings on here?

 

[Jonathan]

Glad to have you back 12%.

How does one get uo to the min. stock market readings on here?

Best free DJIA readings I've found are off of Yahoo. Not sure about EFA (my data's delayed 20 minutes). Perhaps you have to subscribe?

 

[easyrydr]

i already have that but was looking for a more up to the min. But thanks anyway. Have you tried the igoogle charts?

 

[350zCommTech]

350, Think that jobs data will validate the 25/25 cut?

Why is AGG down... I guess the bond market is selling the news?

No, they cut because of the credit markets. It's still in danger of imploding. The jobs number will probably come in at 130-140K. I'll bet the markets will like it. The dollar will rise so I won't be in the I fund on Friday.

Bond yields are up because of inflation fears. With GDP at 3.9% and a healthy job market, rate cuts to help the credit markets will only cause inflation to rise. The moral thing for the Fed would have been to hike rates by a .25%.

But, I ain't complaining today....

 

[Birchtree]

They'll most likely do another .25 rate cut on Dec. 11 just in time for the Christmass rally to start kicking. 2,000 points to run.

 

[Jonathan]

The moral thing for the Fed would have been to hike rates by a .25%.

But, I ain't complaining today....

I know what you mean.

 

[easyrydr]

Where is everyone goion to for Fri. market. Just want to know so I can gess like everyone else.