350Z's I fund thread OCT 07

[huntva]

Breaking News

"Turkish lawmakers have approved a cross-border military offensive against Kurdish separatists in Iraq, wire services report."

Stocks reacting negatively to the news.

RS

 

[fedgolfer]

Breaking News

"Turkish lawmakers have approved a cross-border military offensive against Kurdish separatists in Iraq, wire services report."

Stocks reacting negatively to the news.

RS

Not so coincidental that we're seeing a double top in OIH over the past few days... I think that's only short term profit taking in oil stocks... we're going higher w/ SLB, BHI, HAL etc for q4 and probably through most of Bush's last year in office.

 

[12%ayear]

US DOLLAR heading lower.....please post estimate ty

 

[350zCommTech]

US DOLLAR heading lower.....please post estimate ty

Up 6 cents. The dollar is moving back up.

 

[350zCommTech]

Up 10 cents.

 

[Minnow]

Is that -fv I smell? ... I believe it is (350, how much will the unwinding of the yen carry trades factor into this?)

btw, anybody notice that both times Bush got in front of the cameras, the market just dropped? :laugh: he used to have the opposite effect, didn't he?

 

[Silverbird]

Well...to be fair, things started to fall with the news on the big banks' loan restructuring plan. (Hard to swallow ).
Then you hope Bush might have something constructive to say on the economy.
You start to listen...Nothing to see here, move along...:notrust:

 

[350zCommTech]

Is that -fv I smell? ... I believe it is (350, how much will the unwinding of the yen carry trades factor into this?)

Yup, the Yen carry trade is unwinding. This morning's pop was a dead cat as I expected. The much worst than expect housing news will cause more unwinding tonight as Japan continues to sell-off. If WM's earnings are worst than expected, it will ad fuel to the fire.

Right now, we're looking at a -FV of around 1%.

 

[Minnow]

is there a particular formula, figure or stat that the managers use to factor in the dollar's performance vs. other currencies when pricing/repricing the "I" fund? (sorry for the newb question, just couldn't find it anywhere in the site or old threads)

thanks for the -fv update and thanks, in advance, for any and all answers to the questions.

 

[12%ayear]

Originally Posted by 12%ayear
ok, watch the turn around from this point. IMO DJIA closes green!! I am going out on a limb.
Keep in mind, I posted above when the DJIA was down over 100 points at 2:29 pm. est.!!!!

 

[Jonathan]

Originally Posted by 12%ayear
ok, watch the turn around from this point. IMO DJIA closes green!! I am going out on a limb.
Keep in mind, I posted above when the DJIA was down over 100 points at 2:29 pm. est.!!!!

Hope you're right, 12%...I'm moving from the S-fund to the G-fund, and it would be nice to end the day on a positive note

 

[350zCommTech]

is there a particular formula, figure or stat that the managers use to factor in the dollar's performance vs. other currencies when pricing/repricing the "I" fund? (sorry for the newb question, just couldn't find it anywhere in the site or old threads)

thanks for the -fv update and thanks, in advance, for any and all answers to the questions.

Yes, for pricing the I fund, it's very simple. If the dollar is up 1%, then you just subtract 1% from the I fund's gain/lose. If the dollar is down 1%, then you do the opposite.

But for determining the FV, it's not set in stone. It depends on how Barclay feels on that particular day. I can only guess at how much they use.

 

[Minnow]

Yes, for pricing the I fund, it's very simple. If the dollar is up 1%, then you just subtract 1% from the I fund's gain/lose. If the dollar is down 1%, then you do the opposite.

But for determining the FV, it's not set in stone. It depends on how Barclay feels on that particular day. I can only guess at how much they use.

It's all about Barclays... when will I ever learn

Thanks man... that's simple enough... I think I got enough info to make me dangerous to myself and those around me

 

[12%ayear]

Hope you're right, 12%...I'm moving from the S-fund to the G-fund, and it would be nice to end the day on a positive note

Well, I was shy about 24 points. On the bright side, no-fv. Looks like a nice day for the I Fund after all.........EAFE2,328.531+++++++++++++++0.39%

 

[350zCommTech]

Well, I was shy about 24 points. On the bright side, no-fv. Looks like a nice day for the I Fund after all.........EAFE2,328.531+++++++++++++++0.39%

Yup, no -FV. Good call 12%.

Up 10 cents today.

 

[Frixxxx]

Originally Posted by 12%ayear
ok, watch the turn around from this point. IMO DJIA closes green!! I am going out on a limb.
Keep in mind, I posted above when the DJIA was down over 100 points at 2:29 pm. est.!!!!

I hate it when you get close:toung:

I'm rooting for ya though 12%....although can you call a win on the bo sox...that would be eery.

 

[ATCJeff]

Originally Posted by 12%ayear
ok, watch the turn around from this point. IMO DJIA closes green!! I am going out on a limb.
Keep in mind, I posted above when the DJIA was down over 100 points at 2:29 pm. est.!!!!

I hate it when you get close:toung:

Are you kidding? If 12% is right will all be rich.
Nice call 12.

 

[James48843]

Prices:

G=12.17 +.01
F= 11.64 +.05
C= 17.30 +.03
S= 20.93 +.04
I= 25.49 +.10

 

[poolman]

Yup, no -FV. Good call 12%.

Up 10 cents today.

Good call to you also 350z... Although you call it right most of the time.. Your estimates are like Gold...

 

[350zCommTech]

Good call to you also 350z... Although you call it right most of the time.. Your estimates are like Gold...

Thank you Poolman.