350Z's I fund thread OCT 07

[Robo5555]

Looks like a good start today. Hope is not just a bounce.

 

[nnuut]

Right, looking good, Earnings great today, no economic data due, Oil trending down, OS markets UP. Hope it last throught the day. I'll be on the pad waiting for the "G" penny.:laugh:

 

[Robo5555]

Right, looking good, Earnings great today, no economic data due, Oil trending down, OS markets UP. Hope it last throught the day. I'll be on the pad waiting for the "G" penny.:laugh:

We'll see....would not be surprised if the USM ends with a 100 or more point gain or decline today.

 

[James48843]

Lots of bulls at the open-

Let's see if that was smart money or not. Seems the run north is fading a little now.

 

[350zCommTech]

Current estimate:

Up 23 cents, including a +15 FVC.

 

[350zCommTech]

I'm all in I fund right now. Do you recommend moving to G this morning or tomorrow - if the upward trend continues and with the penny expected tomorrow?

Personally, I expect this to be a short bounce with a down to follow to set up for a rate cut next week. Then hopefully taking off again... I really don't know much about all this "stock talk" and I'm learning from all of you. Sounds a lot like football sometimes!

To get the penny, you have to make the move today. My track record for the penny is about 90% correct. So I can be wrong.

I have the F fund down 2 cents so far today. With the expected bad housing news tomorrow, I'm considering the F fund, despite the G paying tomorrow.

Like most days, today's market is mainly Yen driven. And I'm not liking what I see at the moment. This could change in the afternoon. With the USM up around 60 right now, there's a good chance of a +FV if the Yen carry trade comes back in full force.

Also Japan ended just above flat last night. There's a good chance they will pop if the USM can finish strong. But Europe is already having a great day.

I'm trying to decide between F or I for tomorrow. I have a feeling MER will report some nasty write downs tomorrow morning. That could renew some credit market concerns.

 

[James48843]

I'm all in I fund right now. Do you recommend moving to G this morning or tomorrow - if the upward trend continues and with the penny expected tomorrow?

Personally, I expect this to be a short bounce with a down to follow to set up for a rate cut next week. Then hopefully taking off again... I really don't know much about all this "stock talk" and I'm learning from all of you. Sounds a lot like football sometimes!

Please note: Just so we are clear- We (anyone on this message board) do NOT make any TSP recommendations. We can't tell you where to move, when to move, etc.

We are not financial advisors- we are only fellow fed employees who also are in the TSP.

You have to make your own decisions about where to be.

Thanks-

 

[nnuut]

Well said James!!! Don't follow me Newbie unless you want to take the chance I may be right.:worried:

 

[350zCommTech]

I know the transaction isn't effective until COB that day, but from what I've read I thought the new price at COB is what gets applied to the transaction. This is incorrect?

Yes, that is correct. But, you have to make the move before the deadline today to buy in at COB today, before the G increases on Wednesday.

 

[350zCommTech]

Current estimate:

Up 24 cents.

 

[James48843]

C fund heading down.

Look out- could be a dead cat.

 

[NyteTracker]

I fund sectors and ETFs.

 

[350zCommTech]

Up 18 cents.

 

[sugarandspice]

This is a little confusing so I want to make sure I understand. I thought the G changes at COB or later, not during the day. If anyone can answer these these three hypothetical situations, all with G paying tomorrow, it would help.

1. I'm in I Fund and move to G today and stay there. I will get the G penny tomorrow COB. (This I understand - in G COB so I get paid).

2. I'm in I Fund today and move to G tomorrow morning so that I'm in G at COB tomorrow and stay there. I do not get the Penny? Why not?

3. I'm in I Fund and move to G fund today, then move back to I Fund tomorrow morning (assume a drop in I Fund). Do I get the G penny at COB as well as the lower price for I Fund? If I get the G penny, in this scenario, but not in #2, why not since I'm in G at COB both days?

I guess what's got me confused is I read that prices are applied first at COB, then transactions, so if in G or getting in/out of G at COB you get the penny, and if getting out of G and into another fund you get that new price as well.

If you move into any fund today BEFORE the deadline (noon Eastern time) then you will buy in at the closing price for the end of the day.
If you wait until after the deadline today then you will buy in at the end of the next days closing price. It is that simple.

 

[350zCommTech]

This is a little confusing so I want to make sure I understand. I thought the G changes at COB or later, not during the day. If anyone can answer these these three hypothetical situations, all with G paying tomorrow, it would help.

1. I'm in I Fund and move to G today and stay there. I will get the G penny tomorrow COB. (This I understand - in G COB so I get paid).

2. I'm in I Fund today and move to G tomorrow morning so that I'm in G at COB tomorrow and stay there. I do not get the Penny? Why not?

3. I'm in I Fund and move to G fund today, then move back to I Fund tomorrow morning (assume a drop in I Fund). Do I get the G penny at COB as well as the lower price for I Fund? If I get the G penny, in this scenario, but not in #2, why not since I'm in G at COB both days?

I guess what's got me confused is I read that prices are applied first at COB, then transactions, so if in G or getting in/out of G at COB you get the penny, and if getting out of G and into another fund you get that new price as well.

COB means after prices have been updated in TSP that night.

 

[nnuut]

This is a little confusing so I want to make sure I understand. I thought the G changes at COB or later, not during the day. If anyone can answer these these three hypothetical situations, all with G paying tomorrow, it would help.

1. I'm in I Fund and move to G today and stay there. I will get the G penny tomorrow COB. (This I understand - in G COB so I get paid).

2. I'm in I Fund today and move to G tomorrow morning so that I'm in G at COB tomorrow and stay there. I do not get the Penny? Why not?

3. I'm in I Fund and move to G fund today, then move back to I Fund tomorrow morning (assume a drop in I Fund). Do I get the G penny at COB as well as the lower price for I Fund? If I get the G penny, in this scenario, but not in #2, why not since I'm in G at COB both days?

I guess what's got me confused is I read that prices are applied first at COB, then transactions, so if in G or getting in/out of G at COB you get the penny, and if getting out of G and into another fund you get that new price as well.

1. Yes
2. Nno, not if it pays tomorrow, You changed at the COB tomorrow so you are not in the "G" tomorrow.
3. You are in the "G" tomorrow You get the penny if it pays tomorrow COB. You will be in the "I" day after tomorrow and get paid in the "I" only.

OK try this.
Lets start today Tuesday, an IFT must be submitted by the deadline (12:00 EDT) Tuesday to be effective the next trading day Wednesday. Any IFT made after the deadline on Tuesday will not be effective until the following trading day Thursday (not the next day the day after).
This holds true for all IFTs. In order to be paid you have to be in the fund for that trading day.
Norman

 

[350zCommTech]

IMHO, the I fund should be avoided due to the possibility of a +FV today.

 

[Boxholder]

IMHO, the I fund should be avoided due to the possibility of a +FV today.

I would be thinking there is a greater possibility of an -FV for today. With all of the good earnings reports out today, if the market hasn't shot up by now I would expect a sell-off this afternoon. But I don't think I would want to be in the I tomorrow under either scenario.

 

[350zCommTech]

I would be thinking there is a greater possibility of an -FV for today. With all of the good earnings reports out today, if the market hasn't shot up by now I would expect a sell-off this afternoon. But I don't think I would want to be in the I tomorrow under either scenario.

Well, they filled the gap and they're now trending back up. But yeah, either way, I don't want to be the I for tomorrow.

 

[350zCommTech]

What you mean is, Unless you were already in the I fund...Then the +FV is a good thing...Right?

It's a good if you're already in it and getting out. It's bad if you're just getting in.