350Z's I fund thread NOV 07

[Silverbird]

Believe what you want, but the biggest problem right now is the credit markets and Ben is trying to help them by cutting rates. Why? Because that's all he can do. They can cut to ZERO and it would have no effect on the credit markets. The problem with the credit market is trust and at the moment, there are none. Don't just watch CNBC, go do your own research.

Example, take a look at the dollar index. Look at what has happened since the Feds started cutting in August. You'll see that the dollar has been on a down trend.

I agree, credit has *not* been easing for U.S. businesses with the FED interventions this quarter, credit remains tight, so the "virtuous cycle" of increased U.S. business and stronger dollar longer term from lowering interest rates through a quick infusion of undervalued dollar is not happening this time.

 

[Birchtree]

Was the dollar getting stronger when the Fed was on their mission to raise interest rates 17 times unnecessarily to curb a nonexistent inflation. I said two years ago they were out to destroy the housing market because they need pain before they change course. It's an opportunity for astute investors. They will continue to reduce rates and the dollar will firm.

 

[350zCommTech]

I agree, credit has *not* been easing for U.S. businesses with the FED interventions this quarter, credit remains tight, so the "virtuous cycle" of increased U.S. business and stronger dollar longer term from lowering interest rates through a quick infusion of undervalued dollar is not happening this time.

Yup, since they started cutting in August, things have not changed at all. When, not if, the stock market folks realize this, it will be a blood bath.

 

[Procure]

Agreed on getting news from cnbc...and on idea cutting rates is only thing fed can do to stop economy going into recession...but in theory its a start...and maybe we need more shawk and awh cause fed behind the curve on this one again....also on no credit confidence... why weren't all those bank loan offiicers, govt. credit regulators & mortgage loan officers practicing their due deligence when Greenspud had interest rates so low for all those years....or even that yahoo you had on our moniker for a while recently...where was he..good grief...just another bubble....yeah the dollar index looks pretty low right now....but how low can it go before buyers start stepping in????

 

[Birchtree]

I haven't seen any blood baths yet regarding the dollar. Every time the dollar declines, it makes the U.S. more competitive on international trade, and that is the customer the world is aching for. The export/import story is already showing a change in directions as exports growth is moving up fast - faster than import growth. This will take a while to catch up on a nominal basis, but it will happen as U.S. prices continue to show the massive gain in productivity gains by U.S. manufacturers over the last 20 years. And where was the U.S. index in 1995 when that terrific growth phase began? Right around where it is now, perhaps a wee lower. Elliott wave 3 of Primary degree will run - be prepared by staying long. Be right and sit tight.

 

[Silverbird]

....also on no credit confidence... why weren't all those bank loan offiicers, govt. credit regulators & mortgage loan officers practicing their due deligence when Greenspud had interest rates so low for all those years....

Due dilligence? Nope, housing was the way to go, it was going to rise forever :nuts: :notrust:
"It's the lure of easy money/It has a very strong appeal." - "Smuggler's Blues"

I hope you are right, Birchtree, but manufacturing no longer rules the U.S. economy, it's services. So not sure if we can ride the productivity increase.

 

[Procure]

Sounds good Birch....I am new to posting here...but been a reader here since 2005...currently letting my account ride 50s/50i...amoungst all this turmoil..Lets go december rally...But nice discussion about the value of dollar for I fund thread....

 

[nnuut]

Nice to hear from you procure. COMON Santa!!
Norman

 

[James48843]

News Flash:

New 2008 Government Pay Tables came out a few minutes ago on the OPM website.

More info, and a hot-link, at this link:

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=135534&postcount=8

That will explain more, and then will allow you to click over to the pay tables.

 

[James48843]

The president wants to cut your pay raise back-

Unless Congress acts, then it will be

It will be 2.5% in the base increase, and then the other 0.5% goes into the pool for locality raises.

You are in Oklahoma City- which will get 2.75% total (Rest of US) under the Bush memorandum.

 

[weatherweenie]

The president wants to cut your pay raise back-

Unless Congress acts, then it will be

It will be 2.5% in the base increase, and then the other 0.5% goes into the pool for locality raises.

You are in Oklahoma City- which will get 2.75% total (Rest of US) under the Bush memorandum.

I'm thankful to have a job, especially in this economic environment, let alone to get an annual raise. There are A LOT of people that won't get any sort of raise.

Don't want to sound high and mighty, but it's about perspective.

 

[12%ayear]

Great week!!

 

[Robo5555]

Great week!!

Booya for that!!!

 

[Talltimber]

Gee an annual raise, cool, when you get converted to NSPS the annual raise goes away.

 

[pogo]

just go to tsp.gov then hit shares and you will get them

 

[350zCommTech]

Please lock her up.

Thanks.

 

[Rod]

Closed