350Z's I fund thread NOV 07

[weatherweenie]

I just woke up.

Folks this is not you're typical profit taking after Fed cut. Don't let the media fool you. The Yen carry trade is unwinding. My guess is that it has to do with Credit Swiss and Citigroup.

And Exxon's earnings miss, and oil continuing to climb higher.

 

[James48843]

And the NYSE removed the trading curbs last week.

Want to see a 20% decline in one session?

Now it is possible again, thanks to the NYSE removing the circuit breakers that had been in place since 1987's crash.

(Not saying that will happen today, but I just wanted to point that out to people).

 

[James48843]

Alright- we have shaken off the weak ones.

Now, watch over the next hour as the market bottoms out, then begins a retrace that ends the day in the green....

(Come on baby, daddy needs a new pair of shoes...)

 

[Robo5555]

On the other hand, This might just be a setup for a major run up. We are down almost 200 points so far in the USM. Getting chaper by the second. Maybe smart buyers are getting ready to jump in.

 

[350zCommTech]

Down 39 cents, including a +FVC of 15.

 

[DCguy]

tsp.gov is down att. I can't get to account page... I guess ppl see red and start making ift's and the servers can't handle all requests.

 

[350zCommTech]

Hello 350,
Assuming you're correct on jobs, I'm wondering too - wiil markets maintain uptrend or pullback. Its early still(0745), futures are red, modestly, but as seen before they end up closing just fine. I don't feel that reaction to the FED was really overdone (like last time). Looking back over the last maybe 5-10 days, it seems to me that C & S are generally looking as continuing in an established direction. Of course there are wildcards, as you noted (along w/ $oil). I'm wondering, but thinking C & S could simply continue gains.

As for "I", as noted, Nikkei closed nicely green, as did the Aussie funds. Its Europe thats showing mixed, and bothering me - w/ a good amout of red early this morning. If this is due to dollar, then going forward isn't likely to get better is my guess. Opinions? Best to bail I today?
Thanks

Yes, I would not want to be in the I fund for tomorrow. A turn around in the USM this afternoon will cause a big +FV. Also, the dollar is bouncing off new lows. The dollar will continue to rise on a decent jobs number.

 

[Robo5555]

tsp.gov is down att. I can't get to account page... I guess ppl see red and start making ift's and the servers can't handle all requests.

I have no problems logging on.

 

[Robo5555]

I know I am!


12%....where are you??? James is stealing your thunder....lol!

I believe 12% is on this boat too. Look at his thread.

 

[350zCommTech]

Currently down 37 cents.

 

[12%ayear]

Perfect set-up for mega +++FV this afternoon.

 

[Removed1]

Perfect set-up for mega +++FV this afternoon.

12 ...are you staying with S for Friday? TIA

 

[Cortez]

I read the posts regarding what FV is but I have a follow up question: What is the strategy used to play anticipated afternoon moves in the USM v. entering or exiting the I fund?

For example today, the Dow is -200 and presuming strength in the afternoon what action would you take by noon if:
1. you are not sitting in I fund
2. you are currently in I fund

 

[350zCommTech]

I read the posts regarding what FV is but I have a follow up question: What is the strategy used to play anticipated afternoon moves in the USM v. entering or exiting the I fund?

For example today, the Dow is -200 and presuming strength in the afternoon what action would you take by noon if:
1. you are not sitting in I fund
2. you are currently in I fund

If the +FV is anticipated:

1. Avoid the I fund
2. Go somewhere else

 

[Jethro]

Thanks to all:
-Tom - Great Site.
-ChemEng - Awesome utility
-350z - The best TSP forum
-12% and all for advice.

 

[Cortez]

If the +FV is anticipated:

1. Avoid the I fund
2. Go somewhere else

Therefore, If a -FV is anticipated due to weakness in the afternoon, then:
1. Enter I fund if sitting elsewhere
2. Remain in I fund to collect extra value if already in I

 

[Jethro]

350z, I noticed that your FV estimates are different than ChemEng, are you using a different spreadsheet?

From ChemEng:
10:44 estimate: -27 cents from market change PLUS +FVC of -15 cents PLUS -10 cents from dollar change EQUALS -52 cent

fwiw going to the S fund.

 

[350zCommTech]

350z, I noticed that your FV estimates are different than ChemEng, are you using a different spreadsheet?

From ChemEng:
10:44 estimate: -27 cents from market change PLUS +FVC of -15 cents PLUS -10 cents from dollar change EQUALS -52 cent

fwiw going to the S fund.

Yes, I'm using my own.

I have it currently down 41 cents.

 

[Jethro]

Yes, I'm using my own.

I have it currently down 41 cents.

Ok thanks, btw great call to move to sideline today!

 

[350zCommTech]

Ok thanks, btw great call to move to sideline today!

Thank you.