350Z's I fund thread DEC 07

[350zCommTech]

350z looks like you maybe getting out on a +FV day. Nice job.

Good call ATCJeff.


I fund up 47 cents. +FV = 14 cents.


The EFA had another spike up in the last few minutes just like yesterday. They didn't count it yesterday, but today they did. Hey, I'll take it.

Thank you Barclays.

 

[ATCJeff]

Good call ATCJeff.

Thanks

 

[Robo5555]

I needed a day like today to ease my frustrations. Way to go into a Cristmas holiday weekend.
I will like to extend a very merry cristmas to all my friends on this board and to all your families. May the lord bless your families and grant you health to enjoy their company for many years to come.

 

[12%ayear]

350z looks like you maybe getting out on a +FV day. Nice job.

good eyes today !!!

 

[350zCommTech]

anyone see the Najarian bros talking about anticipated options acitivity for January???

they said it will be double the volatility we're seeing now. Something to that effect. In that same episode, someone else was saying China should surge bigtime after coming off a 10% correction. I'll see if I still have that on DVR and post exactly what they were saying.

I hope you can find out exactly what they said. They might have been referring to the VIX options? 36 VIX calls would definitely be a doubling in volatility and a big drop in the market.

But take a look at the VIX futures quote. If I'm reading it correctly, it just points to slightly higher VIX and a lower market. I don't have access to VIX options.

http://futuresource.quote.com/quote...t,time,low,high,vol,openint,newsettle,chgolds

 

[12%ayear]

IMF to cut U.S., Europe growth estimates - report http://www.reuters.com/article/marke...0071222?rpc=44
To what extent the subprime crisis, related to risky U.S. housing loans, will spill over to the European economy still remained to be seen, but the strong euro was an additional burden for the continent's economy, the paper reported Johnson as saying.
A further decline in the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar would be necessary, as it remains overvalued, while it would also help to rectify global imbalances, Johnson said, according to Boersen-Zeitung.

 

[merlin]

Monday is the Presidents gift to government workers day off. Would that apply to the TSP people too?

No gift to to the Post Office .

 

[Robo5555]

No gift to to the Post Office .

I believe they get holiday pay.

 

[12%ayear]

No gift to to the Post Office .

USPS always gets coal from the government.

 

[frokker]

Happy Holidays everyone!

 

[12%ayear]

 

[350zCommTech]

 

[12%ayear]

http://www.thomsonfxhub.com/fxhub/news-detail.jsf?newsId=7989

 

[12%ayear]

here is Barclay after the 2 transactions a month crap
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[350zCommTech]

anyone see the Najarian bros talking about anticipated options acitivity for January???

they said it will be double the volatility we're seeing now. Something to that effect.

Ok, after digging around a little bit. Here's what I gathered from some of the smarter traders out there.

The VIX JAN futures are pointing to a higher VIX(23). The VIX closed on Firday at 18.47. This just means that they're expecting a lower market in Janurary.

On the VIX options, as of Friday, the implied volatility on some VIX puts were very very low. The implied volatility on some VIX calls were very high. This means the option writers are expecting a much higher VIX between now and OPEX. A much higher VIX translates to a big sell off in the market.

Since the VIX closed on Friday just a hair below the 200dma(hasn't done it since April), it doesn't take a rocket scientist to know that the VIX might try to bounce and revert to the mean. So these option writers might be pricing in the obvious or they might know something. Just MHO. Take for what it's worth. ZER0.

So, in other words, between now and Jan 21st, be careful.

 

[airlift]

350,

You stated "Just MHO. Take for what it's worth. ZER0.

So, in other words, between now and Jan 21st, be careful."

Yours is a great opinion. These traders might well be looking at momentum driven December and January ... and then a correction. If they don't have volatility cycles, which they need to make money with puts and calls, and so forth, then they would remain stagnant in their trades! MERRY CHRISTMAS to all!

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

For January S&P currently @ 1498, I can collect $.70 for a 1595 call (97 pts/6.47% away) or $.70 for a 1275 put (223 pts/14.88% away). I'm backing up the truck for 1275 puts tomorrow

in other words, the options market is pricing in more than the twice the risk to the downside. Of course markets fall faster than they climb.

 

[Rustynutt]

Thanks Z for all the help this year.
[FONT=&quot]Merry Christmas to all!

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[RPM]

Merry Christmas to ALL, and special thanks to all the gurus on board for great market analysis and great animation

 

[James48843]

Just an FYI:

It appears that Yahoo has changed the symbol for the French CAC index.

The new symbol is: CAC 40 = FCE.NX

If you are running a spreadsheet, please update the macro with the correct new symbol.