350Z's I fund thread DEC 07

[350zCommTech]

Happy holidays and good luck to all.

 

[hessian]

Happy holidays and good luck to all.

Hi 350,
I'll kick off the DEC "I" discussion with a question:
The I-Fund is nearest to the previous top trend point, back in June, than any of the other stock funds. Is it rational to disregard this fact - and expect "I" to continue as perhaps best performer/as continuing at perhaps best growth-rate - as last couple months, even years (relative to other stock funds)?
VR

 

[Talltimber]

I expect the Fed to decrease rates, this will lower the value of the dollar, so foreign funds will rise in value compared to domestic funds.

 

[350zCommTech]

Hi 350,
I'll kick off the DEC "I" discussion with a question:
The I-Fund is nearest to the previous top trend point, back in June, than any of the other stock funds. Is it rational to disregard this fact - and expect "I" to continue as perhaps best performer/as continuing at perhaps best growth-rate - as last couple months, even years (relative to other stock funds)?
VR

I expect the Fed to decrease rates, this will lower the value of the dollar, so foreign funds will rise in value compared to domestic funds.

I agree with Talltimber. The trend is still down for the dollar so I expect the I fund to continue to be the best performer.

 

[James48843]

On the other hand, it looks like the dollar has turned, and we are in for a change in direction, at least for the short time.

Tom talked about it this morning- we very well may have a change in direction on the dollar here.

It's food for thougth, anyway.

If the dollar IS changing direction, it may be to our advantage to use the "C" or "S" instead as the vehicle.

Only time will tell.

 

[350zCommTech]

Current down 7 cents. The dollar is down again offsetting some of the lose.

 

[350zCommTech]

Heads up for Thursday. BOE and ECB will have interest rate announcements. The consensus is that they will hold.

 

[Birchtree]

The U.S. budget and trade deficits are narrowing in tandem for the first time since 1995, when the dollar gained 8 percent as measured by the Federal Reserve's U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index. The twin deficits have been feeding a bearish dollar market over the past few years. If the deficits continue to show improvement, they will definitely take some heat off the dollar.

 

[350zCommTech]

Down 8 cents.

 

[Robo5555]

good day for the F fund....bad day for us!

 

[ATCJeff]

good day for the F fund....bad day for us!

Easy now partner, I'm in the F today.

 

[Robo5555]

Easy now partner, I'm in the F today.

I would not be hanging in there too long.

 

[ATCJeff]

I would not be hanging in there too long.

Waiting on a retest of the lows or a break above the 200 DMA.

 

[hessian]

Heads up for Thursday. BOE and ECB will have interest rate announcements. The consensus is that they will hold.

Not sure where I read this, but saw source that said inflation is running huge in Asian Markets.
Something like 8% in Japan, and double digits, in like China. I recall Asian Banks don't like to/rarely adjust rates, but if true they may not have a choice! Effect may be a decrease strength of their currency relative to US dollar. Anyone know more on this - can give true picture on whether/not anything behind this speculation? :blink:
VR

 

[350zCommTech]

Not sure where I read this, but saw source that said inflation is running huge in Asian Markets.
Something like 8% in Japan, and double digits, in like China. I recall Asian Banks don't like to/rarely adjust rates, but if true they may not have a choice! Effect may be a decrease strength of their currency relative to US dollar. Anyone know more on this - can give true picture on whether/not anything behind this speculation? :blink:
VR

Not exactly. While China has double digit inflation, Japan is still trying get out of deflation. I'm not sure if China will continue to raise rates, but Japan will be on hold at .50% until for a while. I can't see them raising rates until the credit markets start function again.

 

[Silverbird]

Not exactly. While China has double digit inflation, Japan is still trying get out of deflation. I'm not sure if China will continue to raise rates, but Japan will be on hold at .50% until for a while. I can't see them raising rates until the credit markets start function again.

Japan will hold its rates for as long as it can. Japanese people have a tendency to "over-save" and not borrow, and raising rates will only encourage this behavior. Two very big reasons for this are that it is necessary to save to send your kids to the good schools and prep classes, and their pension system is terrible. That's along with a cultural bias toward saving, borrowing is seen as shady or irresponsible.

 

[Minnow]

yeah, the Japanese are whacky all right. saving up for things and paying for silly expenditures like education.

seems I remember my parents not having credit cards and thinking that layaway was a somewhat decent way to buy something that you really wanted. fiscal discipline -- thing of the past

 

[Silverbird]

yeah, the Japanese are whacky all right. saving up for things and paying for silly expenditures like education.

Well, it actually is rather extreme in Japan, with little kids going to pre kindergarden to get into the right kindergarden, everyone in Juku (afternoon and night cram schools for entrance exams) and paying through the nose for the "right university" and "right high school". As for the borrowing, they usually won't do it at all, even when it would be good for a long term investment.

 

[Talltimber]

yeah, the Japanese are whacky all right. saving up for things and paying for silly expenditures like education.

seems I remember my parents not having credit cards and thinking that layaway was a somewhat decent way to buy something that you really wanted. fiscal discipline -- thing of the past

That perfectly describes my parents, well except for the layaway thing. Hmmm, dad sailed the Arizona to Pearl and spent much of the war in the Western Pacific. He was one of the few red heads in the area at the time.

Isn't China's savings rate 50%?

 

[hessian]

Not exactly. While China has double digit inflation, Japan is still trying get out of deflation. I'm not sure if China will continue to raise rates, but Japan will be on hold at .50% until for a while. I can't see them raising rates until the credit markets start function again.

Thanks 350, I stand corrected. One of those times I was 1/2 listening.
Expect this means disregard post, since China isn't part of our "I-Fund".
VR