350Z's I fund thread DEC 07

[James48843]

Wasaki wrote:

10/31/07 - 0.25% cut
C = 1.22% gain
S = 1.45% gain
I = 1.47% gain

On the other hand, the day after the rate cut, prices tanked, and were off for a while.

Oct 31 close: C= $17.40 the next day, it fell to $16.95

Oct 31 close: S=$21.06. the next day it fell to $20.48

Oct 31 close: I= $26.31. the next day it fell to $25.59.


In fact, none of the funds have made it back above their Oct 31 numbers since then.

And that is with the fed doing what everybody thought they were going to do- a cut of a half percent.

What if they don't cut a half tomorrow?

It's something to think about, anyway.

 

[350zCommTech]

Up 16 cents.

 

[ATCJeff]

What are the chances that tomorrow's interest rate announcement will trigger a late rally causing a +FV? I'm thinking of moving into the I today and bailing out tomorrow for the steal.

It's only a steal if Barclay's estimate is too high. If they go conservative, then you got robbed!

Remember some of the FV is because of the dollar change since cut-off and/or USM advance since cut-off. 99.9% of the time it's the change in the USM that triggers the FV process. If you had been in the USM(C or S fund) instead of the I fund, you will get the same amount (return percentage) that triggered the FV in the I fund. The dollar change and/or Barclay's estimate is what your betting on. Here lately they seem to be very conservative.

The best scenario would be a declining dollar and a very high estimate on the FV.

 

[RPM]

Up 16 cents.

Is this the final? Thanks.

 

[350zCommTech]

Is this the final? Thanks.

Yes.

 

[RPM]

Yes.

That was quick! Thank you mucho!

 

[weatherweenie]

eafe +0.60%

 

[350zCommTech]

25.67

Up 15 cents.

 

[Robo5555]

25.67

Up 15 cents.

I'll take it!!! Are you'all still going to the lili pad for Wed?

 

[350zCommTech]

I'll take it!!! Are you'all still going to the lili pad for Wed?

Not me. I'm going to the Frog pond. Did you see all the bad news today. The BAC news this morning was horrible. Then after the bell, we got the bad news on WaMu. They sure pick the right time to put out bad news. They did it right before the Fed so that their stock won't tank...

Anyway, here's why I'm going to the F fund:

View attachment 2794

If the equity markets rally big on the Fed cut, TNX could hit 43(50DMA), which is strong resistance. It looks like it would have to be a pretty big move for the TNX to hit 43 so I might be a little early. If the Fed cuts .50%, the equity markets could rally through Wednesday. So, it might take two more days before TNX would hit 43? I'm not going to be a pig and wait around to find out. I'll take what I can get tomorrow and be happy.

Perhaps I should go to G first, then go to the F fund for Thursday?

 

[Talltimber]

I decided three weeks ago to be G Tues COB. Come on FV, roll big money! Baby needs new shoes! The seasonal chart indicates a week in the G pond might make for good water conditions in the more volatile market that is I fund. Pull up a lily leaf and lets talk.

 

[350zCommTech]

The dollar just started to tank hard.

Fed cut leaked already?

 

[GUCHI]

350z
so does that dollar fall mean green light on the I fund ??? should i let it roll? anyone have any comments ??

 

[The_Technician]

The dollar just started to tank hard.

Fed cut leaked already?

I just seen it gaining strength on the euro....its expected that the Feds, as well as the ECM, want the dollar to gain strength .

Carnac

 

[Birchtree]

German exports surged 6.3% in October from a year earlier amid strong global demand. Europe's exporters are seeking new ways to offset the weak dollar. This may suggest that strong European and global demand could continue to underpin solid expansion in Europe's largest economy, even as the U.S. economy is expected to slow.

 

[350zCommTech]

350z
so does that dollar fall mean green light on the I fund ??? should i let it roll? anyone have any comments ??

No, I was just referring to something that happened over night.


Current estimate:

Flat

 

[Robo5555]

Are you guys bailing out today?

 

[weatherweenie]

Are you guys bailing out today?

Not that I was in the I fund, but I moved 50% to the G yesterday, and moved to 75% G 25% F for Wednesday.

 

[350zCommTech]

Are you guys bailing out today?

I am. The potential of a big +FV alone is making me leave the I fund.

 

[James48843]

Somebody must of leaked info. C just dropped.