350Z's I fund thread DEC 07

[James48843]

Take a close look at what the dollar has been doing the last week. It really looks like a fundemental shift in the direction of the dollar. It's been falling for months, but now looks like it's bottomed and is turning around.

There is no real reason for it to change direction, but it has, at least for the last couple days.

I'm sticking to "C" and "S" as my swing funds for this week.

 

[350zCommTech]

Take a close look at what the dollar has been doing the last week. It really looks like a fundemental shift in the direction of the dollar. It's been falling for months, but now looks like it's bottomed and is turning around.

There is no real reason for it to change direction, but it has, at least for the last couple days.

James,

Yes, the dollar bounced and It might very well be a fundamental shift. But the bounce might have been attributed to some credit market stress in the UK and the eventual BOE rate cut, along with a temporary bottom.

Look at this USD index chart. Noticed the 50dma was resistance. If the Fed cuts on Tuesday, the dollar will fall. I would not rule the I fund out for at least Monday and Tuesday. After the cut, now that will be a different story. That might be when the dollar starts to go up again.

View attachment 2768

 

[Robo5555]

The dollar has big impact on the I fund performance. C & S might be a good move now that it looks like the USM is going to push up.

 

[12%ayear]

I have to agree with 350z. Next week, the I Fund is the place to be. The US DOLLAR is short-term overbought. The cuts will tank it and cause the Euro to push ahead. Also the I Fund has been lagging the rest. I Fund for me for Mon./Tues.

 

[Robo5555]

I love this forum!!

 

[clester]

Here's a exerpt of a free newsletter from advfn.com
The Week Ahead
Overall strategy: Central bank policies will remain a key short-term focus. Markets will continue to speculate over the global impact of persistent credit stresses with the Fed interest rate decision due next week. Despite the current recovery in global stocks, underlying risk tolerances are likely to remain at lower levels. The US dollar will struggle to make strong headway in the short-term with higher volatility liable to persist.

Key events for the forthcoming week

Date Time (GMT) Data release/event

Tuesday December 11th 19.15

US Federal Reserve interest rate decision

Thursday December 13th 13.30

US consumer prices

Dollar:

There will be further concerns over the US economy with particular fears surrounding consumer spending trends and the labour market. The most recent releases have offered some encouragement and there is also greater confidence that the Federal Reserve action will help avert a recession which will curb dollar selling. In this context, the increased doubts over the global economy will also provide some protection to the US dollar. The fundamental doubts will limit the scope for gains by the US currency and sentiment could reverse rapidly.

 

[fedgolfer]

Nice chart on the $usd, 350. Although the MACD looks awfully ripe and looks like its just gaining mo-mo.

On a sidenote, I gave away tix to the Bears/Skins game... I couldn't muster the heart to brave the weather and 60k+ annoying Redskin fans. Man, they're annoying.

 

[350zCommTech]

I don't see a sell-off this afternoon or Monday. Here's why:

View attachment 2769

Pay close attention to the box on the left. That is the TNX moving up prior to the Fed cut on Sept 18th. Now look at the box on the right. Noticed that it just broke the 20dma. I believe that it's going to play out very similar to the Sept. cut. TNX will likely move up on Monday and end with a bang on Tuesday if the Fed cuts .50%. While the yields move up, the markets will be ok. I would avoid the F fund for Monday and Tuesday.

 

[350zCommTech]

Nice chart on the $usd, 350. Although the MACD looks awfully ripe and looks like its just gaining mo-mo.

On a sidenote, I gave away tix to the Bears/Skins game... I couldn't muster the heart to brave the weather and 60k+ annoying Redskin fans. Man, they're annoying.

Thanks fedgolfer,

I didn't even watch the ending to see who won the game. That defense is terrible.

 

[350zCommTech]

Currently down 3 cents, including a 24 cent +FVC.

 

[poolman]

I don't see a sell-off this afternoon or Monday. Here's why:

View attachment 2769

Pay close attention to the box on the left. That is the TNX moving up prior to the Fed cut on Sept 18th. Now look at the box on the right. Noticed that it just broke the 20dma. I believe that it's going to play out very similar to the Sept. cut. TNX will likely move up on Monday and end with a bang on Tuesday if the Fed cuts .50%. While the yields move up, the markets will be ok. I would avoid the F fund for Monday and Tuesday.

Nice chart and analysis 350,

IMO, Whatever way the market go's today, will not be a huge move. I'm worried if we do not get a .50% cut the markets are going to tank, and if we do get a .50% cut is this rally that we have been in already cooked into the books.

I'm still hedging we get a .50% cut and the markets will take off thus far. I will definitely be out of the markets on the 12.

 

[350zCommTech]

Nice chart and analysis 350,

I will definitely be out of the markets on the 12.

Thanks, and yes I will out of the market also on the 12th.

 

[350zCommTech]

Down 3 cents, including a 24 cent +FVC.

 

[350zCommTech]

Good possibility of a +FV today. I'm staying in C.

 

[ctkling192]

350,
Won't the meeting for the rate cut be late in the trading day on Tues, so any 'pop' would more likely happen on Wed? Are you speculating that the fed will only cut .25% and send the market down?
TIA

 

[350zCommTech]

350,
Won't the meeting for the rate cut be late in the trading day on Tues, so any 'pop' would more likely happen on Wed? Are you speculating that the fed will only cut .25% and send the market down?
TIA

No, I expect most of the pop to happen in the USM on Tuesday afternoon. Which will result in a +FV for the I fund. The Asians will pop later that night but the Europeans will be affected by the USM on Wednesday. If the USM sells off on Wednesday, it's going to suck, just like what happened on the last cut.

 

[12%ayear]

Guys remember I mentioned IMAX back in MAY?? It is up 60% today
__________________

 

[vol46]

Nice chart on the $usd, 350. Although the MACD looks awfully ripe and looks like its just gaining mo-mo.

On a sidenote, I gave away tix to the Bears/Skins game... I couldn't muster the heart to brave the weather and 60k+ annoying Redskin fans. Man, they're annoying.

If you think that's annoying, try playing a round of golf with 11 Koreans in front of you and they won't let you through.

 

[weatherweenie]

eafe +0.83%

 

[Talltimber]

No, I expect most of the pop to happen in the USM on Tuesday afternoon. Which will result in a +FV for the I fund. The Asians will pop later that night but the Europeans will be affected by the USM on Wednesday. If the USM sells off on Wednesday, it's going to suck, just like what happened on the last cut.

I am go from I to G tuesday until things settle out. Good chance of a FV and FVC after Uncle Ben talks Tuesday.