350Z's 2007 I Fund Thread

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Aviator_Guy said:
I’m really confused with the “I” fund share price correction today.

Yesterday (6-7-2007) “I” Fund share price = 24.03
Today (6-8-2007) “I” Fund share price = 24.24

Bloomberg (6-8-2007) EAFE = -1.044 %
MSCI EAFE (6-8-2007) EAFE = -1.04 %

So, if there is no FV at all on 6-8-2007, the share price should drop -1.04 percent. This works out to 23.78 per share.

So if the share price increased from 23.78 to 24.24, that works to be a + 1.9% FV.

If this is correct, this is the largest positive FV I have ever seen. This is great news for the folks in the “I” fund. :cool:

http://www.mscibarra.com/products/indices/stdindex/performance.jsp
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No, today included a FV correction of +28 cents and a new FV of +19 cents. The I fund is 19 cents in the hole when it starts on Sunday night.
 
The_Technician said:
Hmmmmmmmm.....that doesn't sound good 350....I guess that everyone could have been expected something like that to happen...it seemed like going to the I today was going to be obvious.......and they raised the price on ya.....

my feelings about the current market/economic situation is, the ones in control of financial instruments like the I fund, will take care of themselves first as they did today, everyone else doesn't matter....

This is one of those things I feared when I mentioned the other day about those FV's, they can really burn ya....

Hope ya'll better luck next time....right now the C and S funds are probably better investments at the right time just because of the FV penalties.....not counting the dollar strengthening......
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With the high volatility in the markets these days, perhaps the obvious move to the I fund will no longer payoff big. From now on, I will not switch to the I fund unless the DOW is already 100 points up.
 
Griffin said:
Was the MSCI -1.040% both yesterday and today? I got the impression that MSCI was have technical problems and not updating today?
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Looks like they changed their webpage. Noticed the same thing though. Even if you change the date, you get the same return, -1.040%
 
Griffin, Show-me, 12%, 350z, Tech, and Ebbnflow,

I was not able to post the analysis Griffin did, to which Show-me's response I did post below. However, this analysis is very important to consider. I remember that at one point this year Ebb tested using the S fund instead of the I fund. Is it possible to test the Ebbtracker further in order to compensate for the volatility or unpredictability caused by the interference of Barclay's FV? That is, can additional testing be done to determine if perhaps longer term the S fund would be the better alternative, or whether the I fund is still the best alternative regardless of the current short-term "miss"? Or has Ebb already done his longer term analysis? As Show-me has noted, the Ebbtracker got a "Buy signal today, but got the shaft by +FV." Best wishes to all!:):)

Show-me said:
Good observation/point Griffin. Today is a prime example for the EbbTracker. Buy signal today, but got the shaft by +FV. If the FV was not a factor the EbbTracker would have bought at $24.05 just two cent above the low.

I fund is way to unpredictable due to the duel factors of equities and currency.
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Don' worry next week the I FUND will be the place to be in. Big %s returns for the next week. EUROPE and JAPAN way way way oversold.
 
airlift said:
Griffin, Show-me, 12%, 350z, Tech, and Ebbnflow,

I was not able to post the analysis Griffin did, to which Show-me's response I did post below. However, this analysis is very important to consider. I remember that at one point this year Ebb tested using the S fund instead of the I fund. Is it possible to test the Ebbtracker further in order to compensate for the volatility or unpredictability caused by the interference of Barclay's FV? That is, can additional testing be done to determine if perhaps longer term the S fund would be the better alternative, or whether the I fund is still the best alternative regardless of the current short-term "miss"? Or has Ebb already done his longer term analysis? As Show-me has noted, the Ebbtracker got a "Buy signal today, but got the shaft by +FV." Best wishes to all!:):)
Click to expand...

Yer might be better off trying to predict when Barclays would apply that FV psychologically right when you don't want it.....I'm predicting that Monday's action is going to nulled out.....then its off to further downers for the next several weeks.....ye ain't going to make any money in this situation we're in....the EFA is going to take care of itself first....

I have a suggestions though, keep tabs on the FV's and record whether they are good for us or not and see the patternns around a timeframe correlated to the market....that should confirm what I've mentioned here....
 
The_Technician said:
Yer might be better off trying to predict when Barclays would apply that FV psychologically right when you don't want it.....I'm predicting that Monday's action is going to nulled out.....then its off to further downers for the next several weeks.....ye ain't going to make any money in this situation we're in....the EFA is going to take care of itself first....

I have a suggestions though, keep tabs on the FV's and record whether they are good for us or not and see the patternns around a timeframe correlated to the market....that should confirm what I've mentioned here....
Click to expand...

UfVs happen when EFA is up/down at least 0.5% at 4PM from where it was at ~ 11AM. UfVs effect only people that buy/sell on a day that has a UfV.

If someone was in the I-fund before this past Thursday and they sell on Monday and there is no UfV on Monday other than to put the price back inline with MSCi, then they were uneffected by Thursday's/Friday's/Monday's UfVs.

I bought 50%I on Thursday and was helped by the -1.0 % UfV. Then on Friday, I placed the other 50% in I-fund and was hurt when they priced it 0.8% too high at the end of the day.

The I-funds UfV is the same as the C & S funds price change between noon and 4 PM EXCEPT it doesn't happen to the I-fund unless there is at least a +/- 0.5% change.
 
The_Technician said:
Yer might be better off trying to predict when Barclays would apply that FV psychologically right when you don't want it.....I'm predicting that Monday's action is going to nulled out.....then its off to further downers for the next several weeks.....ye ain't going to make any money in this situation we're in....the EFA is going to take care of itself first....

I have a suggestions though, keep tabs on the FV's and record whether they are good for us or not and see the patternns around a timeframe correlated to the market....that should confirm what I've mentioned here....
Click to expand...
IMO, too many people feel the same way. The US Dollar is way overbought and the OSMs are going to roar back. The later part of the year is the concern. This news is very old and stale about inflation. I have been writing about it for months. The low volume in the USMs will drive us into new highs .Looking for 14200s before we breakdown hard.
 
12%ayear said:
IMO, too many people feel the same way. The US Dollar is way overbought and the OSMs are going to roar back. The later part of the year is the concern. This news is very old and stale about inflation. I have been writing about it for months. The low volume in the USMs will drive us into new highs .Looking for 14200s before we breakdown hard.
Click to expand...
12%,

I'm not seeing a lower volume for the S&P, or AGG, or EFA for the last year on Yahoo.....its been increasing ever since late last year......

As far as the dollar goes, it started up right at the end of April, there was options on the dollar at that time......and its not stopping its upward climb to a 200 day average which is at 84 at the moment.....its just passed the 50 day moving average and given that oil is traded in dollars and since we are looking for oil to go down that would mean that the dollar has to gain strength......

So take a look at what I just mentioned and then I'd love to hear more about it....
 
Solid greens around the world-

And the dollar pretty much neutral this morning.

Looks like a solid green day for the "I" ahead, unless something changes.
 
These are the kind of markets I love. Everyone turns bearish and hides. The way to make capital is to outthink the majority of the polls. US Dollar is way overbought and the I fund is oversold. Remember, there is a ton of money coming in the market and basing your bets on a bad week is plain crazy. Oil will be coming down,IMO, this will ease the inflationary pressure short-term. Also, watch the shorts get nailed. Oil Stocks are great shorts ,QQQQs are buys and watch for FED to ease the inflationary pressure.
 
If EFA goes much higher at end-of-day than where it is now 79.9, we'll probably get at +UfV.
 
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