350Z's 2007 I Fund Thread

[ebbnflow]

I think I got my math wrong. I was in I-fund yesterday and bailed out today, so I actually missed getting back the .27 cents FV correction.

I think this is wrong because the I-fund took a hit today (-1.04%) before the +FV. It didn't matter if I stayed or not. It's practically a wash.

 

[airlift]

12%,

You have good insight. Let's hope you are right. Thanks.

 

[ebbnflow]

I'd say an FV of +.19 cents, but the OSMs should be jumping on Monday. We probably could get 35 to 45 cents on the I-fund that day. Didn't matter if you're in the I-fund today or not, the +FV didn't belong to us.

O Geez!! What do we do now??? :blink:

Sit tight and when it's all said and done, we'd have a small profit on Monday!

 

[350zCommTech]

I think I got my math wrong. I was in I-fund yesterday and bailed out today, so I actually missed getting back the .27 cents FV correction.

Yeah, and by buying in at tonights' price, we are paying for this FV to all that are leaving the I fund tonight.

I strongly believe that they should either change our deadline to 3:30 est or remove the FV process.

 

[12%ayear]

Yeah, and by buying in at tonights' price, we are paying for this FV to all that are leaving the I fund tonight.

I strongly believe that they should either change our deadline to 3:30 est or remove the FV process.

The FV process is bad. Bad enough, you have to guess the OSMs,Currency,USMs,and then the deadline at noon. Then they FV us to death. Guess what? they can care less.

 

[Griffin]

If your knowledgable with the I-fund and it's mechanisms, don't waste your time reading this, if not you may want to take a look.

If you are trading the I fund on a regular basis, you may want to back test your returns agains the S-fund (i.e. every time you moved to the I, calculate what your returns would have been if you had gone S instead).

The FV process is forward looking - but how forward looking is it? Does it estimate what the opening price is going to be? or is it based on some market momentum projection? I don't know the answer, but I do know that it often is significantly larger then the difference between the closing and opening prices in the OSMs. That means you are truely missing returns that should be yours. The FV estimating process can't predict the future any more then we can, so they are always going to err in favor of not diluting the fund.

The I-fund is inticing because the volatility appears greater then the S-fund, but in reality, the greater volatility is often due to the FV process. If you are buying the bottoms and selling the tops as you would call them playing the C-fund (which is the way a lot of us do it, since the S&P is the benchmark the rest of the world follows) the FV is working against you almost everytime. You need the dollar working in your favor to make playing the I the better choice. Something to consider as the dollar now appears to be trending up.

 

[ebbnflow]

I think I got my math wrong. I was in I-fund yesterday and bailed out today, so I actually missed getting back the .27 cents FV correction.

I think this is wrong because the I-fund took a hit today (-1.04%) before the +FV. It didn't matter if I stayed or not. It's practically a wash.

But because of the +FV today, it would have been better to be on the I-fund. Congrats on those who stayed!

 

[Warrenlm]

...Also, I think we are on our way back to 14000s before we see the true correction take place. Dollar is way overbought.

Do you see a 10% correction/pullbackin the next few months?

 

[12%ayear]

Has this changed your thinking about the timing of a more significant pullback late in the calendar year?

who are you asking?

 

[Warrenlm]

You caught me trying to be clearer! I was asking you, 12%, as to what you saw as a future pullback.

 

[12%ayear]

You caught me trying to be clearer! I was asking you, 12%, as to what you saw as a future pullback.

My concern going forward are earnings. We will be safe this quarter because companies are spending on business. The consumer is getting whacked at the pump and inflationary pressure is felt at every retailer. The last quarter will be tough because of the huge run-up and a dose of reality. However;near-term, we will be fine. More money will come in and with the low volume , you will see new records. The fed is walking a tightrope. They do not want to raise rates in this climate, it will hurt spending and borrowing. They need to be more dovish for the time being and allow oil prices to fall and inflation pressure will fall. That is the key, if they do that,I will change my mind. This market will break the 14000s before selling-off. The hedge funds are way ahead of us on this one. They know many will short and they will squeeze the shorts. Easy to do with lighter trading volume.

 

[McDuck]

Unfair Valuation Tally
05/29/07 I-fund 0.617% MSCI 0.601%
05/30/07 I-fund 0.163% MSCI -0.503% <= UfV 0.666%
05/31/07 I-fund 0.367% MSCI 1.024% <= UfV -0.657%
06/01/07 I-fund 0.650% MSCI 0.624%
06/04/07 I-fund 0.363% MSCI 0.353%
06/05/07 I-fund -0.121% MSCI -0.134%
06/06/07 I-fund -1.087% MSCI -1.140%
06/07/07 I-fund -2.158% MSCI -1.040% <= UfV -1.118%
06/08/07 I-fund 0.874% MSCI -1.040% <= UfV 1.914% <- still + 0.8 UfV. I was cheated !

 

[vol46]

I fund closed at 24.24 for today

 

[350zCommTech]

Unfair Valuation Tally
05/29/07 I-fund 0.617% MSCI 0.601%
05/30/07 I-fund 0.163% MSCI -0.503% <= UfV 0.666%
05/31/07 I-fund 0.367% MSCI 1.024% <= UfV -0.657%
06/01/07 I-fund 0.650% MSCI 0.624%
06/04/07 I-fund 0.363% MSCI 0.353%
06/05/07 I-fund -0.121% MSCI -0.134%
06/06/07 I-fund -1.087% MSCI -1.140%
06/07/07 I-fund -2.158% MSCI -1.040% <= UfV -1.118%
06/08/07 I-fund 0.874% MSCI -1.040% <= UfV 1.914% <- still + 0.8 UfV. I was cheated !

I fund closed at 24.24 for today

That's a 19 cent +FV. We got butt @#$@!

 

[Show-me]

If your knowledgable with the I-fund and it's mechanisms, don't waste your time reading this, if not you may want to take a look.

If you are trading the I fund on a regular basis, you may want to back test your returns agains the S-fund (i.e. every time you moved to the I, calculate what your returns would have been if you had gone S instead).

The FV process is forward looking - but how forward looking is it? Does it estimate what the opening price is going to be? or is it based on some market momentum projection? I don't know the answer, but I do know that it often is significantly larger then the difference between the closing and opening prices in the OSMs. That means you are truely missing returns that should be yours. The FV estimating process can't predict the future any more then we can, so they are always going to err in favor of not diluting the fund.

The I-fund is inticing because the volatility appears greater then the S-fund, but in reality, the greater volatility is often due to the FV process. If you are buying the bottoms and selling the tops as you would call them playing the C-fund (which is the way a lot of us do it, since the S&P is the benchmark the rest of the world follows) the FV is working against you almost everytime. You need the dollar working in your favor to make playing the I the better choice. Something to consider as the dollar now appears to be trending up.

Good observation/point Griffin. Today is a prime example for the EbbTracker. Buy signal today, but got the shaft by +FV. If the FV was not a factor the EbbTracker would have bought at $24.05 just two cent above the low.

I fund is way to unpredictable due to the duel factors of equities and currency.

 

[ebbnflow]

So true, Show-me. But, there's still money to be made out there, especially on Monday.

 

[Griffin]

Was the MSCI -1.040% both yesterday and today? I got the impression that MSCI was have technical problems and not updating today?

Unfair Valuation Tally
05/29/07 I-fund 0.617% MSCI 0.601%
05/30/07 I-fund 0.163% MSCI -0.503% <= UfV 0.666%
05/31/07 I-fund 0.367% MSCI 1.024% <= UfV -0.657%
06/01/07 I-fund 0.650% MSCI 0.624%
06/04/07 I-fund 0.363% MSCI 0.353%
06/05/07 I-fund -0.121% MSCI -0.134%
06/06/07 I-fund -1.087% MSCI -1.140%
06/07/07 I-fund -2.158% MSCI -1.040% <= UfV -1.118%
06/08/07 I-fund 0.874% MSCI -1.040% <= UfV 1.914% <- still + 0.8 UfV. I was cheated !

 

[The_Technician]

That's a 19 cent +FV. We got butt @#$@!

Hmmmmmmmm.....that doesn't sound good 350....I guess that everyone could have been expected something like that to happen...it seemed like going to the I today was going to be obvious.......and they raised the price on ya.....

my feelings about the current market/economic situation is, the ones in control of financial instruments like the I fund, will take care of themselves first as they did today, everyone else doesn't matter....

This is one of those things I feared when I mentioned the other day about those FV's, they can really burn ya....

Hope ya'll better luck next time....right now the C and S funds are probably better investments at the right time just because of the FV penalties.....not counting the dollar strengthening......

 

[Aviator_Guy]

I’m really confused with the “I” fund share price correction today.

Yesterday (6-7-2007) “I” Fund share price = 24.03
Today (6-8-2007) “I” Fund share price = 24.24

Bloomberg (6-8-2007) EAFE = -1.044 %
MSCI EAFE (6-8-2007) EAFE = -1.04 %

So, if there is no FV at all on 6-8-2007, the share price should drop -1.04 percent. This works out to 23.78 per share.

So if the share price increased from 23.78 to 24.24, that works to be a + 1.9% FV.

If this is correct, this is the largest positive FV I have ever seen. This is great news for the folks in the “I” fund.

http://www.mscibarra.com/products/indices/stdindex/performance.jsp

 

[350zCommTech]

Was the MSCI -1.040% both yesterday and today? I got the impression that MSCI was have technical problems and not updating today?

No, he's got a typo for yesterday. It should have been -1.036%