350Z's 2007 I Fund Thread

[Oldcoin]

Setting up for a cut in Interest Rates?

10-Year Treasuries Head for Biggest Weekly Decline in Two Years
By Elizabeth Stanton

June 8 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury 10-year notes are poised for their biggest weekly decline in more than two years, even after recovering from early losses today, on concern that faster economic growth will lead central banks to raise interest rates.
Ten-year notes, whose yields determine interest rates on mortgages and corporate bonds, had their biggest slump in more than three years yesterday. The yield touched 5.25 percent earlier today, matching the highest since May 2002.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aKe2lWYTNgvQ&refer=home

I think it’s an indication that it the other way around.

 

[weatherweenie]

WOW! Dare I say we could get a nice +FV on top of the -FV correction?

 

[350zCommTech]

10-Year Treasuries Head for Biggest Weekly Decline in Two Years
By Elizabeth Stanton

June 8 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury 10-year notes are poised for their biggest weekly decline in more than two years, even after recovering from early losses today, on concern that faster economic growth will lead central banks to raise interest rates.
Ten-year notes, whose yields determine interest rates on mortgages and corporate bonds, had their biggest slump in more than three years yesterday. The yield touched 5.25 percent earlier today, matching the highest since May 2002.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aKe2lWYTNgvQ&refer=home

I think it’s an indication that it the other way around.

This recent jump in interest rates is doing what the Fed can't really do and don't want to do. If the Feds are allowing this to happen, it's a mistake. Government job numbers are bogus. Just look at how Walmart and other retailers are doing. This jump in interest was probably more to do with foreign central banks selling bonds and buying the dollar, as Tom suggested. What ever the case, this will just bring more pain to consumers and the housing industry.

 

[350zCommTech]

WOW! Dare I say we could get a nice +FV on top of the -FV correction?

We briefly touched that territory but we are now just below it. It's close but not yet.

 

[weatherweenie]

We briefly touched that territory but we are now just below it. It's close but not yet.

Buzzkill

Go back to OKC :laugh:

 

[Oldcoin]

What ever the case, this will just bring more pain to consumers and the housing industry.

I agree, like the increase in gasoline (energy cost), interest rates can be viewed as another brake on the economy. We are flirting with the recession right now with the lowered GDP, recession in housing and the auto makers are on their butts. I received this article on Tuesday;

A potential problem for the Fed?

In case nobody is watching, the 30 Year Bond Yield is about to test its 8 year resistance for the second time. This is something to keep a close eye on, because 30 year yields and mortgage rates go hand in hand. See the long term chart below.

The concern is that home building is in a slump and many are speculating that we might be at a bottom ... ready to turn around. If the 30 year yield jumps up, then that would effect how large a home someone could afford, and it would mean that home sellers would get less for their homes in the longer term ... and fewer homes would sell.

The point is, if we see the TYX break out of its resistance and move higher, it will significantly hurt the housing industry that is already in a lot of trouble.

http://www.stocktiming.com/Tuesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm


I don’t know about the Governments jobs numbers thought, they seem to be supported by the other reports. Of course, they could be revised down for the next report.

 

[qibovin]

We briefly touched that territory but we are now just below it. It's close but not yet.

Looks like we might be back there again in USM. How does the dollar factor in?

 

[12%ayear]

How is that +FV shaping up? Also, I think we are on our way back to 14000s before we see the true correction take place. Dollar is way overbought.

 

[350zCommTech]

Looks like we might be back there again in USM. How does the dollar factor in?

Yup, it's there. The dollar has been flat since the deadline. So far, it looks like a 14-16 cent +FV.

If you made a transfer to the I fund, like I did this morning, get ready to bend over. Just hope that Barclay uses a lot of lube.:laugh:

 

[ChemEng]

Yup, it's there. The dollar has been flat since the deadline. So far, it looks like a 14-16 cent +FV.

If you made a transfer to the I fund, like I did this morning, get ready to bend over. Just hope that Barclay uses a lot of lube.:laugh:

Im in the same boat...

Lets see if we can get lucky with it being a Friday... Maybe Mr FV decider will have an early day for a long weekend. I can wish!

 

[FundSurfer]

Lets see if we can get lucky with it being a Friday... Maybe Mr FV decider will have an early day for a long weekend. I can wish!

Better hope it isn't the intern making the decision!!!

 

[Oldcoin]

This is timely…hope you don’t mind me posting it here, but since we were talking about it.

Higher Mortgage rates, and what the SPY wasn't able to do ...

You may recall, that on Tuesday, we said that "nobody was watching the 30 Year Bond Yield".The next day, the 30 year yield moved up to its 8 year resistance line.

And then, on Thursday the Yield gapped up over the resistance and moved up again today. When it gapped up on Thursday, then the media and everybody began watching the 30 year yield.

Today, we will look at the 30 year yield and how significant the move has been.After that, we will look at the S&P's SPY (ETF) and see what it surprisingly did and didn't do.

http://www.stocktiming.com/Friday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

 

[12%ayear]

Im in the same boat...

Lets see if we can get lucky with it being a Friday... Maybe Mr FV decider will have an early day for a long weekend. I can wish!

Doubt it, times like this they will pay. They want toearn the bonus. No need to worry though, next week will be a huge week to the upside. Dollar is way overbought and Fed will ease this inflation pressure talk.

 

[tsptalk]

I think he was simply responding to James' observation and amazement that the dollar was up 0.5%. Tom is saying that the reason the dollar is up is because both stocks & bonds are down, and therefore the flight to quality is going to the dollar. But I'll let Tom speak for himself.

That's what I was trying to say. Thanks.

 

[350zCommTech]

This is timely…hope you don’t mind me posting it here, but since we were talking about it.

Higher Mortgage rates, and what the SPY wasn't able to do ...

You may recall, that on Tuesday, we said that "nobody was watching the 30 Year Bond Yield".The next day, the 30 year yield moved up to its 8 year resistance line.

And then, on Thursday the Yield gapped up over the resistance and moved up again today. When it gapped up on Thursday, then the media and everybody began watching the 30 year yield.

Today, we will look at the 30 year yield and how significant the move has been.After that, we will look at the S&P's SPY (ETF) and see what it surprisingly did and didn't do.

http://www.stocktiming.com/Friday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

This recent jump in yields is very scary if you think about it. It came with very little news on inflation and after a pathetic .06% GDP. Was it fear? CBs repositioning? I don't know. Today, yields came off their highs from this morning and oil plunging, both helping the markets to rebound. But yeilds still ended up for the day.

 

[350zCommTech]

+FV might be 16-18 cents. If they want to be aggressive, it could be as high as 24 cents. This really sucks. I can see the I fund making 1% on Monday but paying zero. I'm hoping for the Friday theory to come true.:worried:

 

[ebbnflow]

I'd say an FV of +.19 cents, but the OSMs should be jumping on Monday. We probably could get 35 to 45 cents on the I-fund that day. Didn't matter if you're in the I-fund today or not, the +FV didn't belong to us.

 

[ebbnflow]

I think I got my math wrong. I was in I-fund yesterday and bailed out today, so I actually missed getting back the .27 cents FV correction.

 

[airlift]

O Geez!! What do we do now??? :blink:

 

[12%ayear]

The markets needed that pull-back this week. This was a pure shake-out on comments made by the Fed and breaking 5% yield. Guess what? It is fluff news. The Fed knows they cannot hike rates under these type of markets based on slow real estate sales and tougher lending. So, they must, I repeat must and will come out with more dovish comments. They know if they spook the markets too much, it will backfire. Also add election year coming up.