350Z's 2007 I Fund Thread

[12%ayear]

350z, I don't think it would be a problem as long as we get that long overdue +2.00% gainer!

The way I see it, the OSMs will take a cue from our market doing the Shanghai Shake.

Looking for a nice rally tonight in the OSMs. Well, I guess today is good for the OSMs in the next round.

 

[ATCJeff]

Although the markets are green, I think it will start to sell-off

Glad you missed this one. Were very close to a +FV

 

[Griffin]

Somebody needs to go find Mr. Barclay and lock him up for a day. Otherwise, we are screwed.

Is there any chance that we are not getting an FV?

With any luck, TSP is still cringing from the abomination of a -FV they made on May 9th (or was it the 10th?) and is gun shy... or at least plays down on it.

 

[wht00ss]

unfortunately no question we get a +fv. I Hate when Barclay's plays this game. I'm still sitting 30C 30S 40I since the beginning of this week so it doesn't hurt me but it drives me crazy when they play this game.

white

 

[weatherweenie]

Is there any chance that we are not getting an FV?

With any luck, TSP is still cringing from the abomination of a -FV they made on May 9th (or was it the 10th?) and is gun shy... or at least plays down on it.

If you're going to dream, dream big.

Otherwise, count on a +FV.

Hopefully the OSM will rally hard tonight.

 

[350zCommTech]

Is there any chance that we are not getting an FV?

With any luck, TSP is still cringing from the abomination of a -FV they made on May 9th (or was it the 10th?) and is gun shy... or at least plays down on it.

If you're going to dream, dream big.

Otherwise, count on a +FV.

Hopefully the OSM will rally hard tonight.

Yup, if I was Barclay, I will definitely do a +FV. At minimum, we are looking at 14 cents +FV. If Barclays wants to be aggressive, it might be 19 cents +FV. Or, If they really want to screw us, it might as high as 32 cents +FV.

 

[ebbnflow]

Yup, if I was Barclay, I will definitely do a +FV. At minimum, we are looking at 14 cents +FV. If Barclays wants to be aggressive, it might be 19 cents +FV. Or, If they really want to screw us, it might as high as 32 cents +FV.

I'd go with the +FV of .19 cents, but wish for the .14 cents.

 

[airlift]

If today the I fund gets +.14,+.19, or +.32, does that mean that those of us who went to the I fund today get battered again tomorrow?

 

[wht00ss]

Yes, you will start in the hole by whatever +fv Barclay decides to dole out today. If it is a +.14 fv today you start out -.14 in the hole for tomorrow if you were not in today. If you were in today it would just be a wash. You would just give back what you got today tomorrow. What Barclay giveth they taketh away.

white

 

[ebbnflow]

If today the I fund gets +.14,+.19, or +.32, does that mean that those of us who went to the I fund today get battered again tomorrow?

Not to panic, Airlift! There's a reason why we're getting that FV. We're in for a big show tonight. Consider it a part of doing business, a toll if you will. We'll get it all back in spades by tomorrow.

 

[Griffin]

If today the I fund gets +.14,+.19, or +.32, does that mean that those of us who went to the I fund today get battered again tomorrow?

EAFE was (.503)% which is (.12) from the current price of 24.48

.14 cents FV is a .570% gain means the I fund closes at 24.50
.19 cents FV is a .776% gain means the I fund closes at 24.55

These gains are how much the OSM would have to go positive tomorrow inorder to see any profit at tomorrow night's close . Another way of saying it, is that tomorrows return will be the %gain tomorrow (actual stock market action) minus the FV% tonight.

 

[McDuck]

If today the I fund gets +.14,+.19, or +.32, does that mean that those of us who went to the I fund today get battered again tomorrow?

This UfV has nothing to do with what happens tomorrow. You over-paid $0.14, $0.19, or $0.32 for every share of I-fund you bought today. That money is lost from your TSP account forever (regardless of what happens tomorrow). Sorry, I've been there, had that done to me, and still have the scar.

 

[350zCommTech]

INFLATION worries by the FED

Not to panic, Airlift! There's a reason why we're getting that FV. We're in for a big show tonight. Consider it a part of doing business, a toll if you will. We'll get it all back in spades by tomorrow.

12%, Ebbnflow,

We better pray that the I fund makes 2% tomorrow because it looks like this afternoons' rally was mainly due to the shorts getting squeezed. The fed statement kind of killed any hopes for a rate cut. On the other hand, the lack of an uplift to the dollar after the fed statement suggests that the feds might be bluffing about the economy.

If tomorrow's GDP gets revised down more than expected, the weak dollar will give us a cushion.

 

[Griffin]

This UfV has nothing to do with what happens tomorrow. You over-paid $0.14, $0.19, or $0.32 for every share of I-fund you bought today. That money is lost from your TSP account forever (regardless of what happens tomorrow). Sorry, I've been there, had that done to me, and still have the scar.

Airlift,

I have often commented the FV's almost always work against you, and when the don't, it's because your moving opposite of the market momentum. However, Greg's assessment is excessively bitter (although emotionally accurate): a .14 or .19 cent would be reasonable given the movement within the USM, but a .32 cent FV would more then a 1.10% FV....it would be thoroughly unreasonable to FV the I-fund an extra .30% more then the USM moved in it's entirety (because there is absolutely no gurantee that the USM will open at least .30% to the upside tomorrow)......which is what happened (in reverse) earlier in May. That one worked against me and I have to admit that I was as angry then as Greg is now. I hardly ever use the I-fund anymore because of the FV. For the short term trader, the FV actually makes the S-fund a more profitable fund to trade. The I-fund can rarely be traded in 3-5 day increments more profitably then the S-fund because of the bite the FV takes out of most trades.

 

[fabijo]

For the short term trader, the FV actually makes the S-fund a more profitable fund to trade. The I-fund can rarely be traded in 3-5 day increments more profitably then the S-fund because of the bite the FV takes out of most trades.

Yup, I've been trying to lessen my exposure time to the I Fund. I'll only consider the I Fund if it looks like the dollar is in another one of its downward slopes. As of the past couple of weeks, the dollar's been rising, though slowly.

 

[McDuck]

That one worked against me and I have to admit that I was as angry then as Greg is now.

Hey, I'm not angry. I didn't change my I-fund allocation today therefore I am unaffected. I was only stating the facts (as I see 'em).

For the short term trader, the FV actually makes the S-fund a more profitable fund to trade. The I-fund can rarely be traded in 3-5 day increments more profitably then the S-fund because of the bite the FV takes out of most trades.

I respectfully disagree. On days that we don't have an UfV, we know 30-minutes before the noon-deadline what the I-fund will sell at the end of the day. With the S-fund, there is the 4-hour deadzone until the end of the day.

The I-fund can rarely be traded in 3-5 day increments more profitably ... because of the bite the FV takes out of most trades.

Yea, that is why the TSP Admin folks do UfVs. They want to discourage frequent trading and encourage us to stay in their much-loved (by them) L-funds.

Peace

 

[airlift]

it's a minefield to navigate! Thanks to all!

 

[fabijo]

g 11.94
f 11.29
c 17.06
s 20.79
i 24.52

Looks like the I Fund gained 4 cents.

 

[McDuck]

UnFair Valuation Tally
12/05/06 I-fund 0.370% MSCI 0.352%
12/06/06 I-fund 0.415% MSCI 0.419%
12/07/06 I-fund 0.367% MSCI 0.359%
12/08/06 I-fund -0.686% MSCI -0.051% <= UfV -0.635%
12/11/06 I-fund 0.368% MSCI -0.266% <= UfV 0.634%
12/12/06 I-fund 0.505% MSCI 0.514%
12/13/06 I-fund 0.365% MSCI 0.345%
12/14/06 I-fund 0.364% MSCI 0.374%
12/15/06 I-fund 0.045% MSCI 0.025%
12/18/06 I-fund -0.136% MSCI -0.123%
12/19/06 I-fund -0.227% MSCI -0.224%
12/20/06 I-fund 0.637% MSCI 0.626%
12/21/06 I-fund -0.136% MSCI -0.153%
12/22/06 I-fund -0.362% MSCI -0.340%
12/26/06 I-fund -0.136% MSCI -0.142%
12/27/06 I-fund 0.864% MSCI 0.837%
12/28/06 I-fund 0.135% MSCI 0.164%
12/29/06 I-fund 0.045% MSCI 0.043%
01/03/07 I-fund 0.990% MSCI 0.963%
01/04/07 I-fund -0.668% MSCI -0.658%
01/05/07 I-fund -1.346% MSCI -1.363%
01/08/07 I-fund -0.045% MSCI -0.029%
01/09/07 I-fund 0.273% MSCI 0.268%
01/10/07 I-fund -1.316% MSCI -1.315%
01/11/07 I-fund 0.736% MSCI 0.705%
01/12/07 I-fund 1.050% MSCI 1.078%
01/16/07 I-fund 0.271% MSCI 0.264%
01/17/07 I-fund 0.135% MSCI 0.160%
01/18/07 I-fund 0.000% MSCI 0.006%
01/19/07 I-fund 0.450% MSCI 0.431%
01/22/07 I-fund 0.090% MSCI 0.075%
01/23/07 I-fund 0.447% MSCI 0.449%
01/24/07 I-fund 0.356% MSCI 0.380%
01/25/07 I-fund -0.976% MSCI -0.296% <= UfV -0.680%
01/26/07 I-fund -0.314% MSCI -1.021% <= UfV 0.707%
01/29/07 I-fund 0.360% MSCI 0.347%
01/30/07 I-fund 0.448% MSCI 0.457%
01/31/07 I-fund 0.401% MSCI -0.211% <= UfV 0.612%
02/01/07 I-fund 0.666% MSCI 1.304% <= UfV -0.638%
02/02/07 I-fund 0.088% MSCI 0.091%
02/05/07 I-fund -0.397% MSCI -0.414%
02/06/07 I-fund 0.620% MSCI 0.615%
02/07/07 I-fund 0.528% MSCI 0.504%
02/08/07 I-fund -0.656% MSCI -0.653%
02/09/07 I-fund 0.352% MSCI 0.336%
02/12/07 I-fund -0.658% MSCI -0.654%
02/13/07 I-fund 0.619% MSCI 0.624%
02/14/07 I-fund 1.493% MSCI 1.475%
02/15/07 I-fund 0.519% MSCI 0.506%
02/16/07 I-fund -0.258% MSCI -0.239%
02/20/07 I-fund 0.216% MSCI 0.189%
02/21/07 I-fund -0.732% MSCI -0.721%
02/22/07 I-fund 0.347% MSCI 0.314%
02/23/07 I-fund 0.692% MSCI 0.732%
02/26/07 I-fund 0.515% MSCI 0.477%
02/27/07 I-fund -3.161% MSCI -1.488% <= UfV -1.673%
02/28/07 I-fund -0.529% MSCI -2.226% <= UfV 1.697%
03/01/07 I-fund -0.931% MSCI -0.934%
03/02/07 I-fund -1.253% MSCI -0.346% <= UfV -0.907%
03/05/07 I-fund -1.859% MSCI -2.065% <= UfV 0.206%
03/06/07 I-fund 2.494% MSCI 1.230% <= UfV 1.264%
03/07/07 I-fund 0.135% MSCI 1.118% <= UfV -0.983%
03/08/07 I-fund 1.125% MSCI 1.118%
03/09/07 I-fund 0.134% MSCI 0.114%
03/12/07 I-fund 0.444% MSCI 0.410%
03/13/07 I-fund -1.770% MSCI -0.751% <= UfV -1.019%
03/14/07 I-fund -0.721% MSCI -2.458% <= UfV 1.737%
03/15/07 I-fund 0.998% MSCI 1.733% <= UfV -0.735%
03/16/07 I-fund 0.180% MSCI 0.173%
03/19/07 I-fund 1.166% MSCI 1.154%
03/20/07 I-fund 0.754% MSCI 0.763%
03/21/07 I-fund 2.156% MSCI 0.274% <= UfV 1.882%
03/22/07 I-fund -0.043% MSCI 1.794% <= UfV -1.837%
03/23/07 I-fund 0.129% MSCI 0.146%
03/26/07 I-fund -0.344% MSCI -0.359%
03/27/07 I-fund -0.130% MSCI -0.253% <= UfV 0.123%
03/28/07 I-fund -0.821% MSCI -0.305% <= UfV -0.516%
03/29/07 I-fund 0.959% MSCI 0.386% <= UfV 0.573%
03/30/07 I-fund -0.130% MSCI -0.122%
04/02/07 I-fund 0.216% MSCI 0.215%
04/03/07 I-fund 0.949% MSCI 0.950%
04/04/07 I-fund 0.641% MSCI 0.620%
04/05/07 I-fund 0.255% MSCI 0.235%
04/09/07 I-fund -0.296% MSCI -0.256%
04/10/07 I-fund 0.977% MSCI 0.971%
04/11/07 I-fund -0.042% MSCI -0.072%
04/12/07 I-fund -0.084% MSCI -0.073%
04/13/07 I-fund 0.800% MSCI 0.240% <= UfV 0.560%
04/16/07 I-fund 0.710% MSCI 1.262% <= UfV -0.552%
04/17/07 I-fund 0.207% MSCI 0.170%
04/18/07 I-fund 0.124% MSCI 0.112%
04/19/07 I-fund -0.579% MSCI -0.599%
04/20/07 I-fund 0.832% MSCI 0.816%
04/23/07 I-fund -0.165% MSCI -0.215%
04/24/07 I-fund -0.372% MSCI -0.366%
04/25/07 I-fund 0.456% MSCI 0.399%
04/26/07 I-fund -0.083% MSCI -0.139%
04/27/07 I-fund -0.248% MSCI -0.258%
04/30/07 I-fund -0.580% MSCI 0.080% <= UfV -0.660%
05/01/07 I-fund 0.208% MSCI -0.499% <= UfV 0.707%
05/02/07 I-fund 0.582% MSCI 0.518%
05/03/07 I-fund 0.041% MSCI 0.045%
05/04/07 I-fund 0.826% MSCI 0.750%
05/07/07 I-fund 0.738% MSCI 0.707%
05/08/07 I-fund -1.098% MSCI -1.096%
05/09/07 I-fund 0.576% MSCI 0.508%
05/10/07 I-fund -1.677% MSCI -0.905% <= UfV -0.772%
05/11/07 I-fund 0.998% MSCI 0.201% <= UfV 0.797%
05/14/07 I-fund 0.165% MSCI 0.125%
05/15/07 I-fund 0.247% MSCI 0.237%
05/16/07 I-fund -0.328% MSCI -0.364%
05/17/07 I-fund -0.329% MSCI -0.326%
05/18/07 I-fund 0.537% MSCI 0.504%
05/21/07 I-fund 0.000% MSCI -0.132% <= UfV 0.132%
05/22/07 I-fund 0.246% MSCI 0.259%
05/23/07 I-fund 0.819% MSCI 0.811%
05/24/07 I-fund -1.422% MSCI -0.896% <= UfV -0.526%
05/25/07 I-fund 0.289% MSCI -0.295% <= UfV 0.584%
05/29/07 I-fund 0.617% MSCI 0.601%
05/30/07 I-fund 0.163% MSCI -0.503% <= UfV 0.666%

 

[350zCommTech]

g 11.94
f 11.29
c 17.06
s 20.79
i 24.52

Looks like the I Fund gained 4 cents.

Looks like a 16 cents +FV. #@$%! Bastards!