350Z's 2007 I Fund Thread

[ebbnflow]

Yup, that was the change. It might be 14 or 15 cents. But with the Dow up only 35 and a big rally in the OSM this morning, we might not get a +FV.

The dollar being up could also come into play. And like you said the Dow failed to get up there. The EFA chart finished with a little less than .5% movement. Tough call, not that it matters, but I vote no FV.

 

[Frixxxx]

The dollar being up could also come into play. And like you said the Dow failed to get up there. The EFA chart finished with a little less than .5% movement. Tough call, not that it matters, but I vote no FV.

I agree ebb, I vote no FV. I see no rhyme or reason to their determinations sometimes. If this FV appears I see little damage. I see a +.5% movement right at the end.

Staying positive!

 

[wht00ss]

no fv - and my 222nd post guaratee's it. LOL

white

 

[Griffin]

eafe +0.62%

OK 350z, correct me if I am wrong , but yesterdays 28 cent FV was +1.18% so they overshot by .56%. With an FV looking unlikely for tonight, we should pick up that .56% adjustment tomorrow, when they recalibrate, is that accurate? or do they now have a reason to FV us tonight?

 

[sugarandspice]

OK 350z, correct me if I am wrong , but yesterdays 28 cent FV was +1.18% so they overshot by .56%. With an FV looking unlikely for tonight, we should pick up that .56% adjustment tomorrow, when they recalibrate, is that accurate? or do they now have a reason to FV us tonight?

I think they will correct with todays closing price if no additional FV is applied today.

Sugar, if you noticied it said" OK 350z " at the start. Meaning it's a question to him. NOT YOU! Stay out of it Sugar!

 

[350zCommTech]

OK 350z, correct me if I am wrong , but yesterdays 28 cent FV was +1.18% so they overshot by .56%. With an FV looking unlikely for tonight, we should pick up that .56% adjustment tomorrow, when they recalibrate, is that accurate? or do they now have a reason to FV us tonight?

No, they will correct the 28 cents tonight. The I fund should be down 13 cents tonight.

As for today's +FV, here are the scenarios:

1: If they use the EFA, as EBBnflow pointed out, it's very close but probably not enough.

2: If they use the Dow, it's enough for +14 cents. Total will be +1 tonight.

The dollar is a non-factor.

I vote no FV also.

 

[airlift]

Thanks for the fine analysis guys!

 

[JTH]

Does anyone ever wonder if the TSP Feds read this thread and alter the results, just to keep you on your toes? :toung:

 

[airlift]

What toes
I lost them long ago!!

Does anyone ever wonder if the TSP Feds read this thread and alter the results, just to keep you on your toes? :toung:

 

[Griffin]

I think they will correct with todays closing price if no additional FV is applied today.

Sugar, if you noticied it said" OK 350z " at the start. Meaning it's a question to him. NOT YOU! Stay out of it Sugar!

It was not my intention to direct the question solely at 350z and before I respond to your comment:

Welcome Back , now I'm not the craziest person on the board. :cheesy:

I get confused with these piggy back FV's

Yesterday 29 cents of the adjustment brought us even with Friday's FV but we got an extra 28 cents which means the I-fund is priced (1.18% - .62%)= .56% more then the EAFE.

Does that mean they subtract .56% and it breaks even? about 13-14 cents?

If so wouldn't anymore then that be a bonus?

 

[sugarandspice]

I fund down .13 cents

 

[350zCommTech]

No, they will correct the 28 cents tonight. The I fund should be down 13 cents tonight.

I fund down .13 cents

The I fund is now even. No +FV today.

 

[ebbnflow]

G 12.06 even
F 11.38 even
C 16.51 +.10 (+0.61%)
S 19.58 +.17 (+0.88%)
I 23.93 -.13 (-0.54%)

The nays have it, no FV! The one hand rule concurs also:

Placing the base of the hand cursor around 11:30 we can see that the end of line for the EFA falls below the hand's height.

 

[Griffin]

No, they will correct the 28 cents tonight. The I fund should be down 13 cents tonight.

As for today's +FV, here are the scenarios:

1: If they use the EFA, as EBBnflow pointed out, it's very close but probably not enough.

2: If they use the Dow, it's enough for +14 cents. Total will be +1 tonight.

The dollar is a non-factor.

I vote no FV also.

OK, so now that we got our -13 cents we are now even with the EAFE as it was around noon, and since we know we are just shy of .50% move since noon, it is likely we will see the OSMs open a little under .5% up.

I apologize for rehashing this, but I am trying to figure out if my logic behind the benefit of a post FV buy in is based in any kind of reality. We know Charmed855's analysis showed that it was effective. But why?

 

[airlift]

Ebb,
This is great news for tomorrow!!!! Best wishes!

 

[McDuck]

The I fund is now even. No +FV today.

Unfair Valuation (UV) Tally
07/18/07 I-fund -0.91% MSCI -0.91%
07/19/07 I-fund 0.91% MSCI 0.91%
07/20/07 I-fund -0.39% MSCI -0.37%
07/23/07 I-fund 0.12% MSCI 0.09%
07/24/07 I-fund -1.66% MSCI -0.76% <= UV -0.90%
07/25/07 I-fund -0.48% MSCI -1.38% <= UVC 0.90%
07/26/07 I-fund -2.06% MSCI -2.08%
07/27/07 I-fund -2.35% MSCI -1.45% <= UV -0.90%
07/30/07 I-fund 1.06% MSCI 0.15% <= UVC 0.91%
07/31/07 I-fund 0.54% MSCI 1.45% <= UV -0.91%
08/01/07 I-fund -0.29% MSCI -1.82% <= UV 1.53%
08/02/07 I-fund -0.04% MSCI 0.52% <= UVC -0.56%
08/03/07 I-fund -1.46% MSCI -0.24% <= UV -1.22%
08/06/07 I-fund 1.78% MSCI -0.63% <= UV 2.41%
08/07/07 I-fund -0.54% MSCI 0.62% <= UVC -1.16%

 

[McDuck]

Ebb,
This is great news for tomorrow!!!! Best wishes!

It's very good news for people who follows EbbnFlow's move and bought into the I-fund today.

 

[airlift]

BTW Ebb,

Where can I buy

 

[airlift]

(continued:

the hand and the software? Thanks!!!!

 

[350zCommTech]

OK, so now that we got our -13 cents we are now even with the EAFE as it was around noon, and since we know we are just shy of .50% move since noon, it is likely we will see the OSMs open a little under .5% up.

I don't think it works that way. Last night for example, the Nikkei opened up only 100 points.

I apologize for rehashing this, but I am trying to figure out if my logic behind the benefit of a post FV buy in is based in any kind of reality. We know Charmed855's analysis showed that it was effective. But why?

IMHO, I don't think so. Certainly not on +FVC day like today, since the markets have already rallied. But on a -FVC day? Maybe, because markets have been selling off are due for a bounce.