350Z's 2007 I Fund Thread

[350zCommTech]

Assuming you are correct, all the better for those getting into the I fund for Friday.

Might be a good time to take a dive into the "I"?

You guys are forgetting about the Fed announcement tomorrow afternoon. A dovish Fed might cause another +FV, or a hawkish Fed(unexpected) might cause a hugh -FV which will never be enough of a cushion because markets will certainly crash.

 

[pyriel]

According to Grace Cheng, a Forex Trader from Singapore, "The 2-day FOMC meeting starts today, with statement due tomorrow. The Fed is widely expected to keep rates on hold at 5.25%, and is unlikely to signal a shift in policy. While overall inflation in the US has gone up in recent months mostly because of higher energy costs, underlying, or core, inflation has shown some improvements." I am dovish with the FOMC announcement Thursday which is why I am going to rethink my move to the I fund before 1200 est Thursday. Good luck to all...
Pyriel

 

[350zCommTech]

According to Grace Cheng, a Forex Trader from Singapore, "The 2-day FOMC meeting starts today, with statement due tomorrow. The Fed is widely expected to keep rates on hold at 5.25%, and is unlikely to signal a shift in policy. While overall inflation in the US has gone up in recent months mostly because of higher energy costs, underlying, or core, inflation has shown some improvements." I am dovish with the FOMC announcement Thursday which is why I am going to rethink my move to the I fund before 1200 est Thursday. Good luck to all...
Pyriel

I'm watching the currencies right now, and the dollar is falling fast. I wonder if something got leaked???

I'm going to move out of the I and go to C.

 

[airlift]

350,
Please consider that you saw the dollar falling fast when you posted this. However, as I write this at 4:34 AM, the Euro/USD ratio is about 1.3453, and the USD/YEN ratio is 123.06. The point is, that the more important relationship affecting the I fund is supposed to be the EURO/USD ratio (assuming I am right, and as I understand the weighting, or relative importance of these currencies). I will appreciate being corrected if I am wrong! Thanks.

I'm watching the currencies right now, and the dollar is falling fast. I wonder if something got leaked???

I'm going to move out of the I and go to C.

 

[12%ayear]

The I Fund after today will be even. So, today is the day to get in IMO. The Fair Value balances the books today. The I Fund is overdue for a huge one day pop like the S Fund did yesterday. After today, I will going to the I Fund for Friday. Good Luck everyone aand I hope everyone makes $$$

 

[airlift]

12%,
Congratulaations for your precise performance with the S fund yesterday! Good luck to you too!

The I Fund after today will be even. So, today is the day to get in IMO. The Fair Value balances the books today. The I Fund is overdue for a huge one day pop like the S Fund did yesterday. After today, I will going to the I Fund for Friday. Good Luck everyone aand I hope everyone makes $$$

 

[12%ayear]

Early estimate..... plus 20 cents minus 16 cents fair value= profit 4 cents

 

[NTXDiver]

I like 12%'s idea on the pop.
Changing my ratio for a better shot if the I fund takes off!
Good luck to all!

 

[T2034]

We have to take into account that the I-fund will likely get anonther +FV today. Most likely it will still be a green day for the I-fund on Friday, not a huge day because of the -FV..

 

[James48843]

All I can say is that the huge swings with FV's being added and subjtracted this week is probably playing havoc on the TSP's fund managers and the accounts- I wonder if there are huge costs associated with these swings.

I'm off to the sidelines mostly now- too volitile for me this week.

I'm showing, on my chart right now, a postive 20 cents as of 8:55 am. Combine with the FV of -16, and you are up four cents on the day.

Wonder if it will calm down, or spiral out of control.

 

[350zCommTech]

The I Fund after today will be even. So, today is the day to get in IMO. The Fair Value balances the books today. The I Fund is overdue for a huge one day pop like the S Fund did yesterday. After today, I will going to the I Fund for Friday. Good Luck everyone aand I hope everyone makes $$$

I like 12%'s idea on the pop.
Changing my ratio for a better shot if the I fund takes off!
Good luck to all!

We have to take into account that the I-fund will likely get anonther +FV today. Most likely it will still be a green day for the I-fund on Friday, not a huge day because of the -FV..

I agree about the pop, especially with Japan, they are lagging. But as T2034 said, don't discount the possibility of another +FV.

 

[Christopher]

Makes you wonder how the dust will settle THIS TIME, considering the way that Barclay's has been slapping I funders with excessive -FVs...

 

[350zCommTech]

350,
Please consider that you saw the dollar falling fast when you posted this. However, as I write this at 4:34 AM, the Euro/USD ratio is about 1.3453, and the USD/YEN ratio is 123.06. The point is, that the more important relationship affecting the I fund is supposed to be the EURO/USD ratio (assuming I am right, and as I understand the weighting, or relative importance of these currencies). I will appreciate being corrected if I am wrong! Thanks.

You have some homework to do my friend. The USD/YEN is very important to study as it pertains to the Yen carry trade, not just it's weighting or importance in relationship to the I fund. And it's not just these two I look at. You obviously noticed that the Dollar fell against the Euro but no the Yen. Actually, the dollar fell against most other currencies except the Yen. The yen is kept low due to the Yen carry trade. You'll see it easily now a days, especially when bad economic news in the US is considered market friendly. It could also mean that the Yen carry trade is over stretched?

 

[draggen3]

Then do you believe that over streched , means Dollar to high as compared to Yen , which is great for I fund when it corrects . Right!!

 

[airlift]

Thanks 350!

 

[qibovin]

Is anyone concerned about, or will it even impact USMs or I fund, that China's market fell over 4% last night?

 

[350zCommTech]

Then do you believe that over streched , means Dollar to high as compared to Yen , which is great for I fund when it corrects . Right!!

Not just that. By over-stretched, I meant in terms of the Yen carry trade. Yes, when it corrects, it will add to the I fund price. But if it's correcting because of fear in the market place, like it did on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, Yen carry trades unwind and markets sell off world wide.

 

[350zCommTech]

Thanks 350!

You're welcome.

 

[350zCommTech]

Is anyone concerned about, or will it even impact USMs or I fund, that China's market fell over 4% last night?

The Europeans didn't seem to care about it. But they were going to rally today anyway. I'm in the camp that believes the Shanghai is making a double top. I think we will soon see a crash there. If the Shanghai has a 9-10% drop day next week, post Fed, I don't think anybody is going to ignore that.

 

[qibovin]

The Europeans didn't seem to care about it. But they were going to rally today anyway. I'm in the camp that believes the Shanghai is making a double top. I think we will soon see a crash there. If the Shanghai has a 9-10% drop day next week, post Fed, I don't think anybody is going to ignore that.

Hmm, that makes perfect sense and ties back in with the seasonality and the Hindenburg Omen(s). I will tread lightly after I celebrate our Independence!