350zCommtech's Account Talk

[Guest2]

LOL! Not I.....Z is DA MAN!

Yes he is, Great Thread Too !

 

[350zCommTech]

Hey Z, could you expound on this just a little?

Sure, after 28 days, these TSLF loans will have to be paid back. But what happens if the financial institution can't pay it back? KA-BOOM!

Remember the article I posted over the weekend?http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=153491&postcount=1260


The problem for the F fund is if these loans are allowed to be roll-over month after month, allowing the investment banks to hide the sausage for 2,3,4, or more months. Which means no or very little writedowns. Resulting in a mega stock market rally, that in turns shoot up interest rates, killing the F fund.

 

[mojo]

I hope you make a killing in I fund 350z. OSMs off to a nice start. I almost went into I fund but the last couple times I was in I fund OSMs finished up 2.50% and I get maybe .02 or negative after FV. Couldn't stomach it. I went to F but wish I had let my 100% S ride through tomorrow. At least I got a bit of my losses back today GL

 

[Show-me]

Sure, after 28 days, these TSLF loans will have to be paid back. But what happens if the financial institution can't pay it back? KA-BOOM!

Remember the article I posted over the weekend?http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=153491&postcount=1260


The problem for the F fund is if these loans are allowed to be roll-over month after month, allowing the investment banks to hide the sausage for 2,3,4, or more months. Which means no or very little writedowns. Resulting in a mega stock market rally, that in turns shoot up interest rates, killing the F fund.

So no limit to the number of time these are rolled? And, the creation of this imaginary dollars will weaken the dollar more?

 

[350zCommTech]

I hope you make a killing in I fund 350z. OSMs off to a nice start. I almost went into I fund but the last couple times I was in I fund OSMs finished up 2.50% and I get maybe .02 or negative after FV. Couldn't stomach it. I went to F but wish I had let my 100% S ride through tomorrow. At least I got a bit of my losses back today GL

Thanks mojo,

I jinxed myself this morning by calling a no-brainer.

 

[350zCommTech]

So no limit to the number of time these are rolled? And, the creation of this imaginary dollars will weaken the dollar more?

I was just speculating about the roll-overs and the possible effect on the F fund. I don't know for sure if the Feds will allow a roll-over. And yes, it could weaken the dollar more.

But what we do know, from the weekend article and recent rumors, is that somebody big(BSC, CITI, ...) was about to go KA-BOOM. Will they allow it to happen?

 

[350zCommTech]

Z,

Treasury borrows from the trust funds at will. Now with this bailout, are we being exposed to more risk? 105% of zero is still zero.

We as in the Feds, government, taxpayers? Yes.

 

[350zCommTech]

Z,

I lost track of where you are. Any moves today? I went all F yesterday for no gain, no loss. Looking good today.

ZOMG....another $1B shows up:

LOL! We know where they got the money from.

Too much resistance on above. Yesterday's rally was too much. Bond yields are down and F fund is up 2 cents despite the rally in stocks.

I'm going back to F fund.

 

[Braveheart]

LOL! We know where they got the money from.

Too much resistance on above. Yesterday's rally was too much. Bond yields are down and F fund is up 2 cents despite the rally in stocks.

I'm going back to F fund.

I can't remember the last time we saw the market up this high dow Up 115.00 yet the F Fund is 3.54 - 5 for close to 3 cents right now. Many people/investors are thinking the same. I thought it was a one day wonder yesterday and went 100% yesterday F for today and that is where I'm staying. I still can't believe the G Fund didn't pay the bastards.

I think the market will finish with a slight gain today which will send people right for cover knowing the is a 400 point drop that could hit at any time. I don't believe the Fed will even make a rate cut and that should be interesting. Good Luck

 

[350zCommTech]

I don't believe the Fed will even make a rate cut and then should be interesting. Good Luck

Oh, they will cut, but it might just be .50% and not the .75% that the market wants.

 

[hessian]

Oh, they will cut, but it might just be .50% and not the .75% that the market wants.

He's gotta know, markets will likely tank, no matter what amount, -so why cut at all?
All our money! - Who needs a window, when we got The Fed to toss it away for us?
View attachment 3527

 

[350zCommTech]

Thanks to the dollar, I was able to make some money back today. I'm back in the F fund for tomorrow. In the past 24 hours, the Yen has risen about 2%, putting the Yen carry trade in no man's land. It has basically taken off nearly all that was put on by Ben's TSLF BS. Which means, tomorrow could be an ugly day(-350?).

The F fund is looking good.

View attachment 3529

 

[Braveheart]

Hey Z:

I feel like I hit the lottery. Your words and info made me decide to go to the F Fund 100% yesterday with 7 seconds left transaction time was 11:59:53 EST and I was thinking I Fund or S Fund but as I posted I thought the F might be the better play. THX

Hopefully we will get some more gains in the F Fund tomorrow stayed at 100%. There could be not just profit taking but a panic sell off.

 

[350zCommTech]

Hey Z:

There could be not just profit taking but a panic sell off.

I agree. Feds are running out of bullets.

 

[Show-me]

I am very, very, eager to see the CPI numbers. That will tell the tale.

 

[350zCommTech]

I am very, very, eager to see the CPI numbers. That will tell the tale.

The PPI was up big on the 26th. If the CPI follows the PPI, like it normally does, then the CPI should be hot.

Here is how I see Friday:

CPI = a little bit lower than expected = market rallies = F fund down.

CPI = higher than expected = market tanks = F fund down a little due to inflation.

So for Friday, IMO, the market will be a big gamble and the F fund might not be a good idea.

Btw, here is what the ORDS and Japanese are doing: View attachment 3531

 

[Show-me]

The PPI was up big on the 26th. If the CPI follows the PPI, like it normally does, then the CPI should be hot.

Here is how I see Friday:

CPI = a little bit lower than expected = market rallies = F fund down.

CPI = higher than expected = market tanks = F fund down a little due to inflation.

So for Friday, IMO, the market will be a big gamble and the F fund might not be a good idea.

Btw, here is what the ORDS and Japanese are doing: View attachment 3531

Well put, I'm out for Friday too. Good luck and good night.

 

[350zCommTech]

KA-BOOM!!@#@!

From The Times

March 13, 2008
Despite the Federal Reserve's efforts Wall Street fears a big US bank is in trouble

Siobhan Kennedy and Suzy Jagger

Global stock markets may have cheered the US Federal Reserve yesterday, but on Wall Street the Fed's unprecedented move to pump $280 billion (£140 billion) into global markets was seen as a sure sign that at least one financial institution was struggling to survive.
The name on most people's lips was Bear Stearns. Although the Fed billed the co-ordinated rescue as a way of improving liquidity across financial markets, economists and analysts said that the decision appeared to be driven by an urgent need to stave off the collapse of an American bank.

“The only reason the Fed would do this is if they knew one or more of their primary dealers actually wasn't flush with cash and needed funds in a hurry,” Simon Maughan, an analyst with MF Global in London, said.

Mr Maughan said that the most likely victim was Bear Stearns, the first bank to run into trouble in the sub-prime crisis and the one that, among all wholesale and investment banks, is most reliant upon the use of mortgage securities for raising funds in the money markets.

“The average financial institution was up 7.5 per cent yesterday after the Fed's actions, but Bear Stearns rose just 1 per cent on massive trading volume,” Mr Maughan said. “The market is telling you it's Bear Stearns.”

The Fed's intervention sparked fears of deeper underlying trouble because it came only days after it had made $200 billion (£99 billion) available in emergency funds. The nature of the financing was also unusual, bankers say, because it was the first time that the Fed had offered to lend Treasury securities in exchange for ordinary AAA-rated mortgage-backed securities as collateral.

Chris Whalen, of the financial consultancy Institutional Risk Analytics in New York, said: “The Fed move is confirmation that at least one of the banks is in trouble. A huge part of the banks' inventories are illiquid. If a broker-dealer is illiquid, it dies.”

Speculation has swirled for months about the collapse of an American bank as the credit crisis has escalated and spread from sub-prime to other mortgage-backed securities, treasuries and bonds. As well as Bear Stearns, attention has focused on UBS, the Swiss bank, which has been forced to make more than $18 billion in sub-prime writedowns, and Citigroup, the world's largest financial institution, which has turned to sovereign wealth funds to help to shore up its credit-stricken balance sheet.

Bankers say that mortgage lenders, such as Paragon, Alliance & Leicester and Bradford & Bingley, could also be teetering on the brink soon if they cannot raise enough money in the markets to continue to lend to customers. All the banks have denied that they are facing a cash crunch and each has said that its liquidity position is strong. Nonetheless, the speculation continues to mount. Alan Schwartz, the Bear Stearns chief executive, reiterated that stance yesterday after Punk Ziegel analysts gave warning that the bank could be forced to seek a merger partner.

“We don't see any pressure on our liquidity, let alone a liquidity crisis,” Mr Schwartz told CNBC yesterday. He said that Bear had finished fiscal 2007 with $17 billion of cash sitting as a“liquidity cushion”. He added: “That cushion has been virtually unchanged. We're in constant dialogue with all the major dealers, and I have not been made aware of anybody not taking our credit.”

Yet banking sources said yesterday that a collapse seemed inevitable. One senior banker in London said: “Someone will go under in this crisis, that's for sure. The question is whether they stay under or get rescued. Let's see whether this latest round of stabilisation helps, but if it doesn't, it's difficult to see what Plan B is. The Fed can't just keep on printing money.”

One problem with the credit crunch is that banks' solvency positions can change overnight. As banks force firesales of assets to recover their loans from hedge funds, the prices of those assets fall. But as the prices fall, the amount of capital that the banks need rises. Lena Komileva, a Tullett Prebon economist, said: “This is what is fuelling the vicious cycle. Things can deteriorate very rapidly and banks can reach insolvency almost overnight.”

Ms Komileva said it was clear that the Fed was reacting to address a “specific counterparty risk”, although she declined to comment on which bank might be in trouble. She said: “The speed and severity of their action appeared disproportionate to what had actually happened, so, consequently, it seems the Fed really reacted to prevent a Northern Rock-style problem in the US.”
She said that the Fed's moves amounted to window-dressing. “All the signs of stress that were there before are still here,” she said.http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article3542775.ece

 

[350zCommTech]

Looks like a followup to the article I posted in your thread at 9:27PM last night. "Ask and Ye Shall Receive" was my title.

Yup, and here is another KA-BOOM! This one is close to Bush.

Carlyle Capital Expects
Lenders to Seize Assets

[FONT=times new roman,times,serif][FONT=times new roman,times,serif]By PETER LATTMAN
March 12, 2008 11:54 p.m.[/FONT]
[/FONT]
The credit crisis has claimed another victim.
Carlyle Capital Corp. said late Wednesday that it expects that its lenders will seize its assets, causing the likely liquidation of the fund. "Although it has been working diligently with its lenders, the Company has not been able to reach a mutually beneficial agreement to stabilize its financing," the fund said in a statement.

The fund's likely collapse is a major black eye for Carlyle Group, the powerful Washington, D.C.-based private-equity firm whose executives own 15% of the fund. Though its registered in Guernsey, United Kingdom, and trades in Amsterdam, Carlyle Capital is managed by Carlyle Group executives in New York.

The news comes just one week after Carlyle Group had pleaded with some of the world's largest banks to hold off on margin calls and the liquidation of its mortgage assets. Several of the lenders, led by Deustche Bank and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. ignored Carlyle's request. Wednesday night, they began selling the fund's $21.7 billion in mortgage securities, which were committed as collateral against huge borrowings.

By Monday, dealers had sold $5.7 billion of the fund's $21.7 billion in assets, which were committed as collateral against huge borrowings.
Other dealers that sold off Carlyle Capital's collateral included Merrill Lynch & Co. and Bear Stearns Cos., according to people familiar with the fund. But some other dealers who didn't sell, including Citigroup Inc., had hoped to resolve the fund's crisis amicably.

The fund's collapse shows how Wall Street's biggest players have begun playing hardball with some of their best clients. And they reveal how jittery banks have become about their own loan exposures. In the case of Carlyle, 12 banks had lent the fund about $21 billion, or $20 for every dollar of initial capital.

It also illustrates how the credit crunch has moved far beyond subprime mortgages. Carlyle Capital's portfolio consisted exclusively of $21.7 billion of triple-AAA mortgage backed securities issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. They are considered to have the implied guarantee of the U.S. government and pay par at maturity.

Carlyle Capital's investment strategy looked like easy money at first. The fund would exploit the difference between the interest earned on its investments in mortgage securities and the costs of financing those investments.

The secret to making money was borrowing massive sums. Carlyle Capital managed only $670 million in client money, but used borrowings to boost its portfolio of bonds to $21.7 billion. Until the dealers started selling off the fund's collateral, it was about 32 times leveraged, a level one mortgage-company analyst called "astronomical."http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120537974320632835.html?mod=hps_us_whats_news

 

[350zCommTech]

HUH? How about a definition for the "F" word, cause we're there.


Fed policy is not intervention?

Still selling out the country.

Speed up the excess inventory? WTH?

Machiavellian. Stockpiling oil on the sly while trying to get OPEC to increase production, gasoline prices skyrocket, and there is a surplus inventory of gasoline as well.

BUSH = DUMB.