350zCommtech's Account Talk

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I'm still in CSI.. I'm feeling this is just an one-day bounce and I made the mistake, but I still think F is still too expensive and needs to go lower
 
350zCommTech said:
I'm in also.
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Personally I hate the I Fund and I think this is a one day wonday wonder. I just went back to 100% F Fund. This isn't based on charts etc. just instinct. I really believe the market will drop before the day is over and many will fall into the trap again.

Best of Luck !!!!
 
Braveheart said:
Personally I hate the I Fund and I think this is a one day wonday wonder. I just went back to 100% F Fund. This isn't based on charts etc. just instinct. I really believe the market will drop before the day is over and many will fall into the trap again.

Best of Luck !!!!
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Yeah, I hate the I fund too.

As for my move, it was partly based on charts and where the OSM were at before the cut-off 12:00 est. But I just realized the OSMs are still trading. Crap, they haven't changed their clocks yet.:D
 
I think 3%+ gain will be seen as the good sign and everyone will be jumping in to make some money. tomorrow should be good too.
 
I agree and what makes this different is that Helicopter Ben didn't ride in with rate cut. I like the "thinking outside the box" move here giving what amounts to an "end-around" move to prop up the finacial system and boosting the dollar and cutting the legs out from underneath the oil speculation all in one swoop. Wow.

I see mass exitus out of speculative commodity driven oil and gold into equities Day 1. Should see a few more days and dear I say and nice bottom put in here as FED Rate cut possibility will keep the market interested for awhile until the FED meets next.

Looks like a sustained rally. :)
 
felixthecat said:
I agree and what makes this different is that Helicopter Ben didn't ride in with rate cut. I like the "thinking outside the box" move here giving what amounts to an "end-around" move to prop up the finacial system and boosting the dollar and cutting the legs out from underneath the oil speculation all in one swoop. Wow.

Looks like a sustained rally. :)
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Helicopter Ben - unfortunately has been more of a puppet over the past year - and a rate cut will be very hard for him to avoid within the next month or so.

Anyway - welcome on board - I appreciate your input; especially the first paragraph.

As for the sustained rally - that's pretty unlikely (at least if you mean going beyond a few days). A sustained rally is what all of us are longing for - but I think Birch's prediction of 7/08 is more likely.
 
Might not want to fall in love with this rally.

MARKET COMMENT

March 11, 2008


image002.jpg



There will be no John Galt-like solutions from this gang of bureaucrats and politicians. The government [taxpayers] is taking over the management of markets [Moral Hazard be damned] as noted in this release per Bloomberg:

“The Fed said in a statement it is establishing a new Term Securities Lending Facility to, through weekly auctions, lend as much as $200 billion of Treasuries to primary dealers for 28 days, instead of overnight as it currently does. The loans may be secured by collateral including agency and private mortgage- backed securities, the Fed said.” [emphasis added].

The sentence in bold indicates that collateral may include “…non-agency AAA/Aaa rated private-label residential MBS [Mortgage-backed Securities].” This “may” account for those securities still maintaining high ratings even though they’re junk. [see other Bloomberg story here.] Does that smack of government pressure and collusion with rating agencies to maintain high ratings so the Fed could take-in these securities as collateral when in fact these companies needed bailouts? Circumstantial evidence argues strongly that it does. In fact, the bottom line of what happened today is the Fed swapped Treasury Bonds for junk mortgage bonds. It will help WS banks and their balance sheets but not necessarily solve the housing problems. And who will eat the difference? You!

I wrote over the weekend that rumors were swirling that a big rescue package was in the works and it has come to pass. Add to this the likelihood of interest rate cuts next week and the Fed/Treasury will have fired all of their your ammo.

The team of Bernanke and Paulson are clear they will do whatever it took with your money to monetize junk debt to bailout their WS friends. There will be a large tab for this down the road.

This morning I looked at conditions overseas and noted Europe was up substantially with the only ascribed reason being the hackneyed hope for more interest rate cuts. But that didn’t seem credible. Since so many players in Europe and the US are involved in this bailout scheme some traders certainly knew. Also, this news was released before the opening, which has become the Fed’s habit, to inflict as much pain to shorts as possible. No question, this is a big time short-squeeze.
http://www.etfdigest.com/davesDaily.php
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Hi 350,
As I understand Fed's new, "creative" Plan - they intend to lend our Federal Treasury Bonds, in return accepting "other" types of securities - such as many they are saying will be triple AAA-rated! (Which my concern is we all know ALOT of those triple-AAAs out there in the market are TOTAL JUNK! :notrust:
You think this is a safe "Plan" (re: our F-Fund assets) - that out F-Fund will stay safe/reliable in general?

I guess I'm concerned that this "Plan" may degrade, and put the F-Fund in jeopardy?? I may be over-reacting here, or do you think there could be/ maybe have other unintendended negative effects)? Think our F-Fund will remain safe?? :worried:
Forgive me for asking, but you are the most knowledgeable, likely wisest, person on the F-Fund that I know to ask!! ;)
VR
PS This post written, without knowing of your post below -so much, seemingly we see similar concerns!!!
 
Last edited:
hessian said:
Hi 350,

You think this is a safe "Plan" (re: our F-Fund assets) - that out F-Fund will stay safe/reliable in general?

I guess I'm concerned that this "Plan" may degrade, and put the F-Fund in jeopardy. I may be over-reacting here, or do you think there could be/ maybe have other unintendended negative effects)? Think our F-Fund will remain safe?? :worried:
Forgive me for asking, but you are the most knowledgeable, likely wisest, person on the F-Fund that I know to ask!! ;)
VR
PS Above written, I expect as you were posting almost same below - so seems similar concern!!!
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Thanks hessian,

As for the effects of this plan on the F fund, it should be safe for the long term(next 6 months or more). My thesis is that we are still heading for a recession, if not already in one. This plan is not a real fix. It does not fix the trust that has disappeared from the credit markets. Folks that can't pay their mortgage, still won't pay their mortgage. Defaults will continue to rise. Mortgage backed securities and CDOs will continue to loose value. This plan will not revive the credit market because investors are still not going to buy this stuff. As you pointed out, AAA doesn't mean anything these days.:D

This plan is just another way to allow these financial institutions to temporary off-load their junk to free up their balance sheets. This is just like the TAF but with a 28 day due date. Now, if the Feds elects to roll-over these TSLF loans every 28 days, the F fund could be in for some serious trouble. But for next week, it's going to depend on whether the S&P can overcome the 20 an 50 DMA's.
 
Now why couldn't CNBC have given us this rumor - I went out got back home went to sleep for a few hours and then WTF the Market is up over 400+ are you kidding me. I thought it was a glitch so I turned to Bloomberg and got the news.

No one would ever think the market would jump like this. To those in the C, S and I today congrats. Sure went up fast what was that line.

Bet fast won't last bet slow sure to go!!!! :rolleyes: - you need luck and in this case today while catching my G penny I am not upset. I think being 100% F Fund tomorrow might be a problem but there could be profit takers. How can anyone trust this market. Damn now the F Fund will be a problem. :D
 
Braveheart said:
Now why couldn't CNBC have given us this rumor - I went out got back home went to sleep for a few hours and then WTF the Market is up over 400+ are you kidding me. I thought it was a glitch so I turned to Bloomberg and got the news.

No one would ever think the market would jump like this. To those in the C, S and I today congrats. Sure went up fast what was that line.

Bet fast won't last bet slow sure to go!!!! :rolleyes: - you need luck and in this case today while catching my G penny I am not upset. I think being 100% F Fund tomorrow might be a problem but there could be profit takers. How can anyone trust this market. Damn now the F Fund will be a problem. :D
Click to expand...

ANd now to really get me going the G Fund doesn't pay !!!!!!!!!
 
Braveheart said:
ANd now to really get me going the G Fund doesn't pay !!!!!!!!!
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I Agree with Everything you have said here. This is the way the Market is right now. It's a Sucker's Rally. I do think there could be a couple of more up day's but, Have Thing's really changed ? I may jump on the magic carpet ride myself tomorrow. I don't know at this point. But, This is not the Low of the Market. I would Bet on That. :)
 
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