350zCommtech's Account Talk

[350zCommTech]

350,
Under this scewnario is it better to be in G or F?

F until there's a bailout.

 

[350zCommTech]

Yup, ECB will probably hold and BOE will probably cut, which means the doller will be going up on Thursday.

The dollar is up today after the expected actions from the over seas CBs.

 

[350zCommTech]

If sales are disappointing at the cheapest place, how do you think the rest of the retail chains did? This will eventually show up in earnings. Folks, don't ride this market down. The S&P might finish negative this year. We had a nice bull run, but we are now in a bear market. Back in 2000, I rode it all the way down because I was not watching the market back then and didn't know any better. Of course, there will be rallies, but the trend will be down.

Just my opinion. Good luck to all.

Recession worries flare on Wall Street

Weak sales from Wal-Mart, cautious outlook from Cisco sends futures lower.

February 7 2008: 7:59 AM EST

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks were poised to extend declines Thursday after weak sales from Wal-Mart Stores and disappointing guidance from tech bellwether Cisco Systems sparked a new round of recession worries.

Less than two hours before the start of trading, Nasdaq and S&P futures were indicating a drop for stocks at the open.
Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500) said its sales at stores open at least a year grew only 0.5% in January, excluding fuel sales. That was well below the forecast of 2% growth in that closely watched retail measure known as same-store sales.

January has become an increasingly important period for retailers, especially with the growth in gift cards purchases during the holiday shopping period. The gift cards are booked when redeemed, rather than when sold.
But Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, said "gift card redemptions were below expectations, and customers appear to be holding gift cards longer and using them more often for food and consumables rather than discretionary purchases."http://money.cnn.com/2008/02/07/markets/stockswatch_ny/index.htm

 

[12%ayear]

If sales are disappointing at the cheapest place, how do you think the rest of the retail chains did? This will eventually show up in earnings. Folks, don't ride this market down. The S&P might finish negative this year. We had a nice bull run, but we are now in a bear market. Back in 2000, I rode it all the way down because I was not watching the market back then and didn't know any better. Of course, there will be rallies, but the trend will be down.

Just my opinion. Good luck to all.

The market will finish up double digits this year. This is what the markets needed to shake out the bulls. Now that we are near the bottom, I am very bullish from here. Most of the bad news is already factored in. Real Estate prices will also start to recovery. Now with low rates, many new buyers will be in the market for homes. In my area, prices are going up. I see 13000s before 11000s

 

[350zCommTech]

The market will finish up double digits this year. This is what the markets needed to shake out the bulls. Now that we are near the bottom, I am very bullish from here. Most of the bad news is already factored in. Real Estate prices will also start to recovery. Now with low rates, many new buyers will be in the market for homes. In my area, prices are going up. I see 13000s before 11000s

For your sake, I truly hope that you will be proven right.

Good luck 12%.

 

[sugarandspice]

The market will finish up double digits this year. This is what the markets needed to shake out the bulls. Now that we are near the bottom, I am very bullish from here. Most of the bad news is already factored in. Real Estate prices will also start to recovery. Now with low rates, many new buyers will be in the market for homes. In my area, prices are going up. I see 13000s before 11000s

You know 12% that 11999 qualifies as 11000's. You really sticking with this?

 

[presskh]

For your sake, I truly hope that you will be proven right.

Good luck 12%.

I hope he is too, 350Z. I also rode the market down in the 2000-2003 recession, believing all the time that it would turn around "soon". It may very well do this, as 12% says. However, as Louise Yamada said on "Fast Money" last night, it's better to be "out" of this market wishing you were "in" that "in" the market wishing you were "out". She seems pretty reasonable to me and has been proven right so far regarding the market technicals. She is bearish on the market and thinks we are another decline similar to the 2000-2003 one.

 

[ContrarianJeff]

As Louise Yamada said on "Fast Money" last night, it's better to be "out" of this market wishing you were "in" that "in" the market wishing you were "out".

What a great quote--and so true. I'm still bullish (barely) and believe we will see new highs in the next six months. But I tell you what--I am thankful to be out of this market right now.

 

[Braveheart]

Have not seen the F Fund open like this since the .75 rate cut. Thoughts good day for it today or weak day.

My IFT is 100% back to F tomorrow is pending but don't want to see a 10 cent drop. Thoughts on this !!! THX

 

[350zCommTech]

Have not seen the F Fund open like this since the .75 rate cut. Thoughts good day for it today or weak day.

My IFT is 100% back to F tomorrow is pending but don't want to see a 10 cent drop. Thoughts on this !!! THX

For the short term, the F fund is starting to worry me. The TNX is currenly in a bullish flag pattern. I've been expecting it to break the wrong way(down), and the bounce yesterday was very disappointing.

Pending home sale down 1.5% and the market likes it. They must be thinking about another inter-meeting cut. Actually, I agree with the market. Another inter-meeting rate cut might be coming.

Tomorrow, we have FNM (Fannie Mae) reporting. This could be a big market mover. My guest is they will report a big loss, but I don't really know for sure.

The Nasdaq is short term oversold, so I'm thinking about moving out of the F fund. Although, If FNM drops a bomb, TNX might break down and out of that flag, giving the F fund a nice gain tomorrow.

 

[Braveheart]

What a great quote--and so true. I'm still bullish (barely) and believe we will see new highs in the next six months. But I tell you what--I am thankful to be out of this market right now.

For the short term, the F fund is starting to worry me. The TNX is currenly in a bullish flag pattern. I've been expecting it to break the wrong way(down), and the bounce yesterday was very disappointing.

Pending home sale down 1.5% and the market likes it. They must be thinking about another inter-meeting cut. Actually, I agree with the market. Another inter-meeting rate cut might be coming.

Tomorrow, we have FNM (Fannie Mae) reporting. This could be a big market mover. My guest is they will report a big loss, but I don't really know for sure.

The Nasdaq is short term oversold, so I'm thinking about moving out of the F fund. Although, If FNM drops a bomb, TNX might break down and out of that flag, giving the F fund a nice gain tomorrow.

THX good info. What I was thinking is it could be a one day wonder Friday hit or miss and get out because if it comes apart tomorrow then the Fed might jump in with a .25 - .50 cut Monday at the risk of deflation. If the Fed steps in then I would move carefully to the S Fund

 

[Braveheart]

"Treasuries Fall as Gaining Stocks Dim Demand Before Auction

By Sandra Hernandez
Feb. 7 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries fell as an advance in stocks dimmed demand for debt before the government's auction of $9 billion in 30-year bonds.
Ten- and 30-year debt fell a second straight day as traders bet the Federal Reserve will lower its benchmark interest rate at least another half-percentage point to 2.5 percent, for the sixth reduction since September, in an attempt to bolster economic growth.
``We still seem to be trading off of stocks as much as anything else,'' said Lawrence Dyer, an interest-rate strategist in New York at HSBC Securities USA Inc., one of the 20 primary dealers required to bid at Treasury auctions.
The yield on the new benchmark 10-year note auctioned yesterday, with a 3 1/2 percent coupon and due in February 2018, rose 4 basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 3.64 percent as of 10:19 a.m. in New York, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. Benchmark 10-year yields fell to a 4 1/2-year low of 3.285 percent on Jan. 23, the day after policy makers' emergency 0.75 percentage point rate cut.
The new 30-year Treasury to be sold today yielded 4.40 percent in pre-auction trading. Bids are due at 1 p.m. New York time. The yield on the 30-year Treasury due in May 2037 rose 3 basis points to 4.40 percent.
The Bank of England lowered its benchmark rate a quarter- point to 5.25 percent in response to slowing consumer spending and the sharpest drop in house prices in a decade. It was the second cut since December. The European Central Bank left its main rate at 4 percent today.
Ten-year notes yield about 170 basis points more than two- year notes, the biggest gap since September 2004. A steeper yield curve indicates investors are favoring shorter-dated debt on speculation the Fed will cut borrowing costs. Longer-maturity notes are more sensitive to expectations for the pace of inflation, which erodes the value of bonds' fixed payments.
The Standard & Poor's 500 index gained 0.4 percent, erasing an earlier decline.
To contact the reporter on this story: Sandra Hernandez in New York at Shernandez4@bloomberg.net "

 

[Braveheart]

"Treasuries Fall as Gaining Stocks Dim Demand Before Auction

By Sandra Hernandez
Feb. 7 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries fell as an advance in stocks dimmed demand for debt before the government's auction of $9 billion in 30-year bonds.
Ten- and 30-year debt fell a second straight day as traders bet the Federal Reserve will lower its benchmark interest rate at least another half-percentage point to 2.5 percent, for the sixth reduction since September, in an attempt to bolster economic growth.
``We still seem to be trading off of stocks as much as anything else,'' said Lawrence Dyer, an interest-rate strategist in New York at HSBC Securities USA Inc., one of the 20 primary dealers required to bid at Treasury auctions.
The yield on the new benchmark 10-year note auctioned yesterday, with a 3 1/2 percent coupon and due in February 2018, rose 4 basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 3.64 percent as of 10:19 a.m. in New York, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. Benchmark 10-year yields fell to a 4 1/2-year low of 3.285 percent on Jan. 23, the day after policy makers' emergency 0.75 percentage point rate cut.
The new 30-year Treasury to be sold today yielded 4.40 percent in pre-auction trading. Bids are due at 1 p.m. New York time. The yield on the 30-year Treasury due in May 2037 rose 3 basis points to 4.40 percent.
The Bank of England lowered its benchmark rate a quarter- point to 5.25 percent in response to slowing consumer spending and the sharpest drop in house prices in a decade. It was the second cut since December. The European Central Bank left its main rate at 4 percent today.
Ten-year notes yield about 170 basis points more than two- year notes, the biggest gap since September 2004. A steeper yield curve indicates investors are favoring shorter-dated debt on speculation the Fed will cut borrowing costs. Longer-maturity notes are more sensitive to expectations for the pace of inflation, which erodes the value of bonds' fixed payments.
The Standard & Poor's 500 index gained 0.4 percent, erasing an earlier decline.
To contact the reporter on this story: Sandra Hernandez in New York at Shernandez4@bloomberg.net "

Needless to say I just cancelled my IFT to the F Fund THX 350Z I just had to dig more.

 

[350zCommTech]

Correction:

I'm not sure about FNM reporting tomorrow. Yahoo does not show it but Briefing.com does not.


I'm currently thinking about 100% I fund.

 

[Boxholder]

Correction:

I'm not sure about FNM reporting tomorrow. Yahoo does not show it but Briefing.com does.


I'm currently thinking about 100% I fund.

Is it tomorrow that the Japanese markets have a holiday or Monday? Anybody know?

 

[350zCommTech]

Is it tomorrow that the Japanese markets have a holiday or Monday? Anybody know?

Monday.

 

[350zCommTech]

Decided on 60/20/20 I/C/S.

 

[fedgolfer]

Correction:

I'm not sure about FNM reporting tomorrow. Yahoo does not show it but Briefing.com does not.


I'm currently thinking about 100% I fund.

are you thinking markets will go down after consumer credit numbers come out at 3pm today? Maybe giving the I fund some +FV correction to start out tomorrow?

 

[350zCommTech]

are you thinking markets will go down after consumer credit numbers come out at 3pm today? Maybe giving the I fund some +FV correction to start out tomorrow?

Wasn't even looking at consumer credit.

I was looking at bond yields. TNX just hit resistance at the 20dma and also the top of the channel. A bounce downward on the TNX should cause more selling in the market, but not sure if it'll be enough for a FV.

 

[Braveheart]

Decided on 60/20/20 I/C/S.

Wow - Identical: I went 20 S Fund....20 C Fund...60 I Fund ......based on the one day hit or miss but if it's a hit then roll it over to Monday. Don't like the weekend trends of sell offs but I thought last friday was a rally without checking so in this market anything goes.

This is like playing blackjack and the dealer still wins on 22 and up. We have to hit 21 on the button just to win. Right now the house has all the money and all the cards.