350zCommtech's Account Talk

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Here is what I wrote yesterday.

350zCommTech said:
Looks like the Nasdaq composite gave the market support this morning at the 20dma. A close below that could be bad. Furthur upside is limited IMO. There is just too much overhead resistance.
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The COMPQ did close below the 20dma yesterday. Another big red candle today will be confirmation that things are back to normal.:rolleyes:

View attachment 3239

Next support for the market might be the 20dma for the RUT2k.

View attachment 3240
 
Hey 350,

As a long time I fund fan I saw you come on to this site and re-invent the way people view it, invest in it and understand it. All of your insight into what is controlling it has been extremely helpful to everyone. I believe that your estimates have helped not only me but plenty of others to make thousands and thousands of $$$. I was one of the first people to tell you that the estimate you provided was worth charging for. It is in my opinion the most important thing this site has to offer on a daily basis. I know people here who check for it as a regular routine of things to do that day. It has power. I'm not laying guilt on you. I am trying to express my appreciation for it and your work in supplying it. You deserve a break and frankly if you discontinue it that will be fine. It was well worth it while you did it. Just saying thanks in a rambling, psychobabbling kind of way.

S&S
 
350, I couldn't agree more with sugarandspice. Although I stay on the low, I make it a point to read what you have to say and appreciate the contibutions you've given me.
:)
 
sugarandspice said:
Hey 350,
I am trying to express my appreciation for it and your work in supplying it. You deserve a break and frankly if you discontinue it that will be fine. It was well worth it while you did it. Just saying thanks in a rambling, psychobabbling kind of way.

S&S
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squalebear said:
350, I couldn't agree more with sugarandspice. Although I stay on the low, I make it a point to read what you have to say and appreciate the contibutions you've given me.
:)
Click to expand...


You're welcome.:)
 
I am starting to think once the 3:00 P.M. Hour hit's the Market is going to tank pretty hard. Possibly down 400 on the Dow.:blink::cool:
 
anidoc said:
Further on the economic front, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.25 percent when its monthly two-day meeting concludes on Thursday. (Additional reporting by Dominic Lau) (Reporting by Michael Taylor; Editing by David Cowell)

progress.gif
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Yup, ECB will probably hold and BOE will probably cut, which means the doller will be going up on Thursday.

Cisco reports after the bell on Wednesday. Might not be good.
 
great call with Fffrog pond ,i am with the rest love to read your input even though i am now feeding on the bottem:D
 
Fivetears said:
Thanks for the link 350z.
It'll be interesting to see how this continues to unfold.
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Fivetears,

I'm afraid it's going to be very, very bad. You might have noticed, lately, that there have been a lot of press releases from the top rating agencies about how they are about to, getting ready to, or might downgrade so and so bond insurers, etc.....

IMO, these are warnings. Downgrades are coming. In a recent article, they said that they will give the bond insurers until the end of February to secure enough capital. Folks are thinking they will downgrade after OPEX.

The market might crash before any of these guys get downgraded.:D

Btw, if you have money in Citibank or Bank of America, you might want to move it somewhere else.:D I have Chase and I'm thinking about diversifying into a local bank. I might also keep some cash at home just in case.:worried:
 
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Fivetears said:
Agree. Watching this too:
Bubble Trouble: Could the Treasury Market Be Due for a Rapid Price Deflation?
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080205/treasury_bubble.html
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LOL!!!

The headline is definitely scary for F funders, but I disagree with the reporter. The one thing that is going to experience a rapid price deflation is the stock market.:D

The Feds started cutting in August and the target is now at 3.00%, but we are not officially in a recession yet? I'm feeling pretty safe in the F fund at the moment.:)

When one of the major CDS bond insurer goes BK or gets downgraded, the F fund will really take off. On the other hand, if there is a bailout, the F fund will get killed. I'm betting there won't be a real bailout.
 
I am a little scared of F and this is why. If you go look on the TSP.gov website you can see that some of the bond investmenst are non-government such as corporate. From the fund sheets for F


"The LBA Index consists of high quality fixed-income securities with maturities of more than one year. The index is comprised of Treasury and Agency bonds, asset-backed securities, and corporate and non-corporate bonds"


To what degree will the F fund slide if those securities or corporate bonds get down-graded by insurers? We know 40% of the index are government related, but what about the other 60%?​

​
 
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Uptrend said:
I am a little scared of F and this is why. If you go look on the TSP.gov website you can see that some of the bond investmenst are corporate. From the fund sheets for F

"The​
LBA Index consists of high quality fixed-income securities with maturities of more than one year. The index is comprisedof Treasury and Agency bonds, asset-backed securities, and corporate and non-corporate bonds"

To what degree will the F fund slide if those securities or corporate bonds get down-graded by insurers? We know 40% of the index are government related, but what about the other 60%?​
Click to expand...

Yes, I've seen that and I don't think that the TSP site has the correct data. Form what I can tell, it seems more like it's 90% treasury. How else could I have been accurately calculating the F fund payout just by using the 10yr and the 30yr bond yields?

Besides that, the real problem with the bond insurers are related to CDO's and CDS's that are mainly made up of MBS (residential and commercial mortgage backed securities).

I am extremely confident that when a downgrade of ABK or MBIA happens, the markets will tank and the F fund will shoot to the moon.:)
 
350zCommTech said:
Yes, I've seen that and I don't think that the TSP site has the correct data. Form what I can tell, it seems more like it's 90% treasury. How else could I have been accurately calculating the F fund payout just by using the 10yr and the 30yr bond yields?

Besides that, the real problem with the bond insurers are related to CDO's and CDS's that are mainly made up of MBS (residential and commercial mortgage backed securities).

I am extremely confident that when a downgrade of ABK or MBIA happens, the markets will tank and the F fund will shoot to the moon.:)
Click to expand...
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/partsub/funds/holdings.asp?Funds=1&Symbol=WFBIX
here is a little better break down on the f-fund
 
Reminder:

Cisco reports today after the bell. I'm expecting a not so good outlook.

Tomorrow, we will get jobless claims, pending home sales, and a couple of home builder earnings. DR. Horton might suck.

I don't see a need to burn 1 of my 2 transfers. I'm staying in the F fund.
 
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