350zCommtech's Account Talk

Yes 350, I noticed that the /DX US dollar futures had a huge spike overnight. The spike took out a lot of stops, clear up to 82.18

That was a misprint. The currency pairs didn't show that happening. If that had really happened, the futures would have been lock-limit-down.:D
 
That was a misprint. The currency pairs didn't show that happening. If that had really happened, the futures would have been lock-limit-down.:D

good catch... well then my practice account is better off... I guess ICE made some announcement I see now... it was real on my fake account... but these fat finger moves usually get fixed later on in fake accounts... wonder if this was a trial run? ... OK no more tinfoil... game on!!!
 
On Japan -they are still not out of the recession, and theirs has been considerably longer than the rest of the world. There was hope earlier in the year that the tide would raise the boats, so to speak, but at this point it's getting obvious that's not what's happening. Add to that the rising yen (in spite of the not so good Japanese economy) and you've got some really skittish and bearish investors. The rise of China, partially at their expense, isn't helping investor confidence either - plus there's the muttering that China too may prove a paper tiger as the rise in the economy by the numbers may be due to their not so accurate data collection (you think *ours* has problems, ours looks pristine in comparison - which is one of the reasons why our GDP calculations use U.S. pricing for both imports and domestic, even though we know it's not correct for other countries, we at least know where the numbers came from) and projects with lots of money thrown at them that really aren't building anything for the future. These days rich Chinese consumers are coming to Japan to buy luxuary goods (because they know they most likely will get the real thing and not knockoffs) which doesn't exactly uplift the Japanese psyche.
 
Were you shorting the dollar? And why?

To be perfectly honest... instead of doing my own homework, I was looking to find a shortcut and followed some bad technical analysis reasons for why the dollar would go to 72 in relatively quick order... I was trying to "get my money back" in the fake account (thank goodness it's a practice/fake account -- and I was playing with money in amounts I was OK with losing in real life -- which ain't much:D). This has been a humbling lesson and I guess I am better off for it. I still get to play because they will fix the mistake but I gotta take a step back and get back to doing better work. So, to answer your question it was laziness or stupidity.... take your pick. But it wasn't the first time and probably not the last.

I also shouldn't have tried to extrapolate this to the tsp account... I shouldn't have done that... it was dumb! at one time, I was top 20 in the tracker and I have cool cap and coffee mug for my efforts... now?, well let's just say I make the top 100 possible. :D

OK enough crying in my beer... good golfing weather 'round here.
 
To be perfectly honest... instead of doing my own homework, I was looking to find a shortcut and followed some bad technical analysis reasons for why the dollar would go to 72 in relatively quick order... I was trying to "get my money back" in the fake account (thank goodness it's a practice/fake account -- and I was playing with money in amounts I was OK with losing in real life -- which ain't much:D). This has been a humbling lesson and I guess I am better off for it. I still get to play because they will fix the mistake but I gotta take a step back and get back to doing better work. So, to answer your question it was laziness or stupidity.... take your pick. But it wasn't the first time and probably not the last.

I also shouldn't have tried to extrapolate this to the tsp account... I shouldn't have done that... it was dumb! at one time, I was top 20 in the tracker and I have cool cap and coffee mug for my efforts... now?, well let's just say I make the top 100 possible. :D

OK enough crying in my beer... good golfing weather 'round here.

Better that you learn on the practice account.:D

I'm done with golf around here. 40 deg today.:(
 
On Japan -they are still not out of the recession, and theirs has been considerably longer than the rest of the world. There was hope earlier in the year that the tide would raise the boats, so to speak, but at this point it's getting obvious that's not what's happening. Add to that the rising yen (in spite of the not so good Japanese economy) and you've got some really skittish and bearish investors. The rise of China, partially at their expense, isn't helping investor confidence either - plus there's the muttering that China too may prove a paper tiger as the rise in the economy by the numbers may be due to their not so accurate data collection (you think *ours* has problems, ours looks pristine in comparison - which is one of the reasons why our GDP calculations use U.S. pricing for both imports and domestic, even though we know it's not correct for other countries, we at least know where the numbers came from) and projects with lots of money thrown at them that really aren't building anything for the future. These days rich Chinese consumers are coming to Japan to buy luxuary goods (because they know they most likely will get the real thing and not knockoffs) which doesn't exactly uplift the Japanese psyche.

Very good points. QE worked wonders for them. I'm glad we have Bernanke looking out for us.:rolleyes:
 
There is a battle on RUT, but take a look at bonds. Were is the money going?

That is a good question. The bond and equity markets are not acting in a normal relationship with one another. Something is going on....maybe we will find out sure. I don't have Blankfein's cell number, I am sure he knows.:nuts:
 
But on the other hand, we have this from Japan.

Yup, just waiting for bullish confirmation on monday and some good ol dollar intervention may have to do that. But I'm out.. so I won't get a dumb luck green escape day. Suits me fine -- the IFT sucked going in and it sucks going out. Move on.

OT: I think I'm going to hate this avatar worse than tanzillo... just give me some time.
 
Yup, just waiting for bullish confirmation on monday and some good ol dollar intervention may have to do that. But I'm out.. so I won't get a dumb luck green escape day. Suits me fine -- the IFT sucked going in and it sucks going out. Move on.

OT: I think I'm going to hate this avatar worse than tanzillo... just give me some time.

You want to smash his bald head with a baseball bat don't you?

I do...:D

As for the IFTs, I here you. These limits sucks. Make a mistake an you gotta wait for next month. And lately, Mondays have been good days.

Japan is poised to rebound, but Europe and US appears to have turned the corner. Today, they saved the RUT from falling below the 20. But as usual, this all came after the bond market closed.

Look at the dollar. The Asians have been supporting the dollar. Sunday night should be interesting.

View attachment 7310
 
When the dollar starts to rally, the stock market will follow. They are in the process of decoupling their inverse conditions.
 
You want to smash his bald head with a baseball bat don't you?

I do...:D

As for the IFTs, I here you. These limits sucks. Make a mistake an you gotta wait for next month. And lately, Mondays have been good days.

Japan is poised to rebound, but Europe and US appears to have turned the corner. Today, they saved the RUT from falling below the 20. But as usual, this all came after the bond market closed.

Look at the dollar. The Asians have been supporting the dollar. Sunday night should be interesting.

Yes, a louisville slugger please...

If I were a betting man I would give you better than even odds that the clubs are going to come out sunday night and beat bucky back down... luckily the practice fx account hit the reset button and I get a "do over"... hmmm... think I'll sit this one out and wait for easier pips... wonder what Frixxxx would do?
 
Some Nikkei thoughts HERE, but not really in depth. Some chance that it is foreshadowing future events in other markets. Only time will tell, but we could be looking back at this sign in the coming months.
 
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