350zCommtech's Account Talk

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I'm not playing the I fund for Monday.

Dollar crosses are now oversold which means the dollar will probably fall in the afternoon. This will be supportive for the market. Might see a positive FV since the I fund just closed negative for the day.

Second thing is the VIX. I have to follow it. It's what I do.
 
350zCommTech said:
I'm not playing the I fund for Monday.

Dollar crosses are now oversold which means the dollar will probably fall in the afternoon. This will be supportive for the market. Might see a positive FV since the I fund just closed negative for the day.

Second thing is the VIX. I have to follow it. It's what I do.
Click to expand...
Don't think there is enough time to change the sentiment.....There will be hesitation....
 
Yeah, what a joke. Do any economic reports even matter anymore?

As long as the bad news continues to roll in, interest rates will stay low allowing a carry trade. I guess traders think this good news might mean a rise in interest rates. Ha, right. Any interest rate hike would literally destroy California, and we can't afford a redo of the LA riots on a national scale. Bernanke knows this.

No doubt in my mind Japan is selling treasuries.
 
Bullitt said:
Yeah, what a joke. Do any economic reports even matter anymore?

As long as the bad news continues to roll in, interest rates will stay low allowing a carry trade. I guess traders think this good news might mean a rise in interest rates. Ha, right. Any interest rate hike would literally destroy California, and we can't afford a redo of the LA riots on a national scale. Bernanke knows this.

No doubt in my mind Japan is selling treasuries.
Click to expand...

The truth might be in the charts of bond yields in the last few days. Yields have been going up before the Japanese rumor. Lets see if they continue up next week.
 
Bullitt said:
Yeah, what a joke. Do any economic reports even matter anymore?
Click to expand...

No joke... whatever direction in the very short term we take... the institutional players want the retail folk shaken out. This trading range with the fakes on both bullish and bearish side is one hell of a shakeout and a good test on patience.
 
Look all we have had a 50-60% year and this is the last dash to solidify some profits for the big guys. If they can lock a year like this under their belt. They have guaranteed employment for next year.. That's when they will be hedging everything thing against what they made this year. Retail numbers won't really affect the big guy, but the little trader will be hit trying to elbow into these fluctuations and find that once they're finally in the ring, it will be to late when they see they are the prey everyone is dining on.:cool:

Run with the big dogs and everything will work out.

January will be bloody!
 
So the market is factoring in a rate increase by the end of next year after a positive jobs number. How many of these temp jobs are just people working at stocking shelves for Christmas? Like Show-Me continues pounding his fist on the table about- we need 250K jobs a month for 10 years to get back to 5%. Retail investors are going to get shaken off the tree and will <sigh> pile back into bonds while countries, central banks, hedge funds and pension funds buy up hard assets. Sure the Fed is going to raise rates in the future, but to what? 1%? That's still a historically low rate and by no means "tight". This fear of the Fed tightening the money supply is killing me.

Of course, those doing God's Work on wall street are crying tantrums right now because being able to borrow at .25% interest rates is the only thing keeping them above water.
 
Good thing I followed the VIX last Friday and stayed in G.

I'm watching the I fund again. Both the FTSE and the DAX have bounced of the bottom Bollinger band, but the Nikkei might be rolling over. Although, 9900 could be support. EUR/USD and GBP/USD have also hit the bottom Bollinger bands on the daily, which means the dollar might retrace some.

These are end of day charts so I drew in today's candles, which is still changing for Europe.

View attachment 7543

View attachment 7544

View attachment 7545
 
Another case for the bullish side is the TNX. Both the 20 and the 50MA are acting as strong support so far. Some of that flight to quality might start to come off. Not looking good for the F fund. We need to see how TNX close today.

View attachment 7546
 
Ammo is running low for those 'Indirect Bidders', and we all know who we're talking about.
The indirect bid--a proxy for demand from foreign buyers including central banks--was 34.9%, compared with 49.3% in November and 47.4% in October.
Click to expand...
But have no fear, here's some reassuring news.:rolleyes:
"Treasury auctions recently have been aggressive bid so one weak auction is not a big deal," said Thomas Roth, head of U.S. government bond trading in New York at Dresdner Kleinwort Securities LLC, part of Commerzbank AG.
Click to expand...
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20091209-711801.html?mod=rss_Bonds
 
Yeah, that bond auction is what made the difference. I think Geithner did do another reverse repo today but Japan announced a massive stimulus a few days ago. It's not just the US that's racing to devalue here. The Yen carry trade is about to get a revival.

Hey 350, what was that comment you made about yields up, market down, not good? I figure the bond market, specifically treasuries, to be the smartest money on the planet; so if they're selling, I take it to mean that money is flowing into equities. Or am I incorrect?
 
Bullitt said:
Yeah, that bond auction is what made the difference. I think Geithner did do another reverse repo today but Japan announced a massive stimulus a few days ago. It's not just the US that's racing to devalue here. The Yen carry trade is about to get a revival.

Hey 350, what was that comment you made about yields up, market down, not good? I figure the bond market, specifically treasuries, to be the smartest money on the planet; so if they're selling, I take it to mean that money is flowing into equities. Or am I incorrect?
Click to expand...

I'll answer that in a couple of hours. Gotta drop daughter off for guitar lesson in this freakin blizzard.
 
Birchtree said:
I wanna hear this. Although I'm sure I won't agree with the synopsis.
Click to expand...

I'm glad you're such an open minded person.

Bullitt said:
Yeah, that bond auction is what made the difference. I think Geithner did do another reverse repo today but Japan announced a massive stimulus a few days ago. It's not just the US that's racing to devalue here. The Yen carry trade is about to get a revival.

Hey 350, what was that comment you made about yields up, market down, not good? I figure the bond market, specifically treasuries, to be the smartest money on the planet; so if they're selling, I take it to mean that money is flowing into equities. Or am I incorrect?
Click to expand...

Ok, wife came home just in time so I didn't have to drop my daughter off.


You are correct that when bond yields rise, money normally flows into equities. The problem now is that the bond market is not what it should be. At least not in the long end.

My comment about bond yields rising as the market declines not being good because to me, somebody is liquidating. I see it in the dollar. I ask this question, "Where did the money go?" It didn't go into gold or oil. Both were down today. Oil was down nearly 3%. Perhaps it went into the short end?

Now, as soon as the bond market closed, equities got a lift. We have seen that time after time. IMO, Bernanke and the primary dealers we heavily supporting the bond market today. primary dealers are happy to comply especially when they can borrow at 0%. Once the bond market closed, they were free to spend the rest of the money squeezing shorts.
 
Sounds like a reasonable explanation.

I continue to be of the opinion that the bond trade is becoming very dangerous. Intellects keep scaring mom and pop into believing the market is dangerous because it's up 60% and that bonds are the safer bet. Once the artificial bid from you-know-who leaves the bond market, everyone will be running to the exit doors and it won't be pretty. They're trying these reverse repos now and look what happens today- the first weak treasury auction in months.
 
Bullitt said:
Sounds like a reasonable explanation.

I continue to be of the opinion that the bond trade is becoming very dangerous. Intellects keep scaring mom and pop into believing the market is dangerous because it's up 60% and that bonds are the safer bet. Once the artificial bid from you-know-who leaves the bond market, everyone will be running to the exit doors and it won't be pretty. They're trying these reverse repos now and look what happens today- the first weak treasury auction in months.
Click to expand...

Which begs the question, how is Bernanke going to exit the bond market?

Which reminds me. Bernanke's confirmation is Thursday, right? There's no way that he's going to get the boot. And the Fed announcement is on Wednesday.

I think a big rally is coming next week.:D
 
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