350zCommtech's Account Talk

OK, part of the story is that Moody's announced they're downgrading a bunch of eastern European banks which have been struggling for some time especially Poland which has biggest amount of IMF loans already, THEN a bunch of euro stop-losses got triggered instigating even bigger selloff.

Japanese minister just resigned, USD/JPY maybe more related to JP woes than eastern Europe/euro woes. Timing fluke? KD is worried about ripple effect from eastern Europe due to BB putting huge amounts of USD out there last year in Credit Default Swap lines. He's actually most worried about ripple effect of all the big waves hitting globally at same time regardless of cause, I think.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=an2XhtAscV1w&refer=news

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/02/16/52508/forex-failure-continues-in-poland
 
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OK, part of the story is that Moody's announced they're downgrading a bunch of eastern European banks which have been struggling for some time especially Poland which has biggest amount of IMF loans already, THEN a bunch of euro stop-losses got triggered instigating even bigger selloff.

Japanese minister just resigned, USD/JPY maybe more related to JP woes than eastern Europe/euro woes. Timing fluke? KD is worried about ripple effect from eastern Europe due to BB putting huge amounts of USD out there last year in Credit Default Swap lines. He's actually most worried about ripple effect of all the big waves hitting globally at same time regardless of cause, I think.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=an2XhtAscV1w&refer=news

Yes, Japan minister resigning is bad news but my previous point remains. The usd/yen should be falling if traders are really worried. The Nikkei being down only 100 or so points also backs up my assumption. We will have to see what happens when the Europe opens in a few hours.
 
Last Friday, when the TNX bounced on the 20dma, I said that it was probably just a technical bounce. i.e. Just a little pain to sit through in the F fund.

Well, it's early in the day, but maybe I was right. Looking at TNX this morning, it retraced all of Fridays move and then some. It's broke through the 20 dma. If it can close below it, it'll head for the 50dma or the lower bollinger band.

The F fund train is back on track.:D

View attachment 5805
 
I see both you optionman and you are in 100% F. Would you still be getting in F today if you weren't already in? I'm trying to decide whether to move to 100% F cob today or hold off on using my last move for a later move to stocks.
 
The F fund train is back on track.:D


Congratulations !!!

My LOVE..... (C,S, and I)..... are sending out their signals and they know I'm just dying for them :cheesy:


but they have a way of teasing :p and I'm not going to get burned....

....so if the SELL OFF Continues ...and the mid day is anywhere near as attractive as it is now...then I will join one (or the other - or maybe even all of them) before the day is through :D
 
I see both you optionman and you are in 100% F. Would you still be getting in F today if you weren't already in? I'm trying to decide whether to move to 100% F cob today or hold off on using my last move for a later move to stocks.

Since it's your last move, don't bother. Another big drop in yields tomorrow and I might bail. Looking to get into stocks Tomorrow for Thursday.
 
Since it's your last move, don't bother. Another big drop in yields tomorrow and I might bail. Looking to get into stocks Tomorrow for Thursday.


Thanks for the help. I don't think I will be getting in stocks this week. Potential 20% drop this week in my mind.
 
GE only leveraged 140:1 - what could go wrong?

slide17.jpg
 
I guess I was expecting a pop tomorrow in equities after today's market. Are you seeing a further slide tomorrow and then a pop on Thursday?

Yes, I posted my plan for this week last Friday I think.

I'm counting on Thursday being an up day especially if Wednesday is another down day. It was related to this week being OPEX. Go back a few pages and you might find that post.

I will have to study the charts tonight and then see how tomorrow looks.

If you're in stocks, just prey that this breakout is another headfake to suck in the shorts.
 
View attachment 5818

The red circle is my exit target for the F fund. A bounce near the 50dma is expected. The indicators suggest that TNX could go as low as 2.40% or even lower. For that to happen, the SPX would have to break 740.

Also, the issue of over supply of US treasuries would come into play. We could see a situation where bond yields start to rise again or fluctuate near the 2.40% while the stock market continue to decline.
 
Thx for the Bond update, 350z.


I've about broke even in bonds, and I'm looking forward to letting my patience pay off.
 
New Home Construction Numbers Hit Record Low (Released Feb 18,2009)

Construction of new homes and applications for future projects both plunged to record lows in January as all parts of the country showed big declines in building activity.

Analysts are hoping that a boost from government programs, including new efforts to stem foreclosures, will help stop the slide.

The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that construction of new homes and apartments dropped 16.8 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 466,000 units. That's well below the 530,000 units economists expected, and was the slowest pace on records dating back a half-century.
Applications for building permits, considered a good barometer of future activity, also dropped to a record low, falling 4.8 percent to a rate of 521,000 units, slightly below economists' expectations.
The continued weakness underscored the problems facing the housing industry, which is in the grips of the worst slump in the post-World War II period. Troubles in housing have pushed the country into a recession and also triggered the worst financial crisis in seven decades as banks struggle to cope with billions of dollars of losses in mortgages and other types of loans.
The new housing figures were released on the same day President Barack Obama is scheduled to announce his administration's plan to reduce home foreclosures.
More than 2 million American homeowners faced foreclosure proceedings last year, and that number could soar as high as 10 million in the coming years depending on the severity of the recession, according to a report last month by Credit Suisse.





Current DateTime: 05:36:32 18 Feb 2009

LinksList Documentid: 29255470




The new report showed weak housing activity nationwide in January. Construction dropped 42.9 percent in the Northeast to a record low of 36,000 units at an annual rate. Building fell 29.3 percent in the Midwest to a record low of 53,000 units, while it dropped 12.8 percent in the South to a new record low of 246,000 units.
Construction activity fell 6.4 percent in the West to an annual rate of 131,000 units, the slowest pace since October 1966.
The National Association of Home Builders on Tuesday said its housing market index rose to nine this month, climbing one point off an all-time low as improved traffic by prospective buyers helped lift some builders' confidence in future sales. Still, readings lower than 50 indicate negative sentiment about the market.
For all of last year, the number of housing units builders broke ground on totaled 906,200, also a record low. That was down from 1.36 million housing units started in 2007. The previous low was set in 1991.
Tighter lending standards, rising defaults and fear about the housing market's future have sidelined buyers, an absence felt acutely by homebuilders.


Devasting numbers implying that a rebound for the stock market is unlikely for at least a couple of months. As for the economy, even bleaker as it may takes years to recover. Quite frankly, the U.S. is in dire trouble as credit squeezes continue to choke any hope for recovery. We lost foreign investment and credit buyers. Look at previous housing upturns after major recessions and you will see that we are not going to turn the corner anytime soon. Where is the Grim Reaper icon. I know I have it somewhere. :(
 
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