350zCommtech's Account Talk

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350zCommTech said:
I don't know, but this sounds like bearish news for the market.
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Between the news from Ireland ans Japan, it sure sounds bearish.

Japan's economy shrank in the last quarter by its most since the first oil crisis in 1974, hit by an unprecedented slump in exports, which is likely to lead to more calls for extra stimulus.

Japan has not suffered much directly from the bursting of bubbles in U.S. credit and housing markets, but its heavy dependence on exports and persistently soft domestic consumption has led to a sharper contraction than other major economies.

Biggest dive since '74

http://www.cnbc.com/id/29213399

This may have been old news, since it has been a little confusing keeping the news from Japan straight, since a lot of it has been pretty pessimistic.

On another subject, I do watch Cramer, because occassionally I can pick up odd nugget of info now and then, but lately he has been all over the place and in particular his optimism that China is already coming out of this depression. I personally don't see this, from what I've gathered from the news and other sources of informatio. Am I missing something, cause the commodity stocks I'm following don't seem to reflect Cramer's ardor for China's upswing, though they did put more funds into the infras. portion of their Stim. Pack.

TIA,

CB
 
CountryBoy said:
On another subject, I do watch Cramer, because occassionally I can pick up odd nugget of info now and then, but lately he has been all over the place and in particular his optimism that China is already coming out of this depression. I personally don't see this, from what I've gathered from the news and other sources of informatio. Am I missing something, cause the commodity stocks I'm following don't seem to reflect Cramer's ardor for China's upswing, though they did put more funds into the infras. portion of their Stim. Pack.

TIA,

CB
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I don't think China has entered a depression yet, much less coming out of one.:D

When watching Cramer, you have to remind yourself that he works for the pigman. His calls are ultimately meant to hurt the masses.

As for China, what do you think about this headline?

20 Mln Jobless Migrant Workers Return Home


About 20 million of China's migrant workers have returned home after losing their jobs as the global financial crisis takes a toll on the economy, said a senior official in Beijing on Monday.
Chen Xiwen, director of the office of the central leading group on rural work, said about 15.3 percent of the 130 million migrant workers had returned jobless from cities to the countryside.
The figures were based on a survey by the Ministry of Agriculture in 150 villages in 15 provinces, carried out before the week-long Lunar New Year holiday which began on January 25.
His remarks came a day after the central government issued its first document this year, which warned 2009 will be "possibly the toughest year" since the turn of the century in terms of securing economic development and consolidating the "sound development momentum" in agriculture and rural areas.
The country's economic growth slowed to 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, dragging down the annual rate to a seven-year low of 9 percent.
The document urged local and central government departments to adopt measures to create jobs and increase rural incomes.
Companies were asked to take on more social responsibilities and give rural migrant workers more favorable employment treatment. Flexible employment policies and more training chances were also encouraged.
Meanwhile, local government departments should increase investment to provide favorable tax and fee policies to those who lost jobs in cities and expect to find new work in their hometowns.
The government also urged departments to map out basic pension insurance measures suitable for rural conditions and migrant workers to ensure their rights.
(Xinhua News Agency February 2, 2009)
http://en.chinagate.cn/top_news/2009-02/02/content_17210699.htm
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CountryBoy said:
On another subject, I do watch Cramer, because occassionally I can pick up odd nugget of info now and then, but lately he has been all over the place and in particular his optimism that China is already coming out of this depression. I personally don't see this, from what I've gathered from the news and other sources of informatio.
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China is having to take loans from the World Bank. Never a good sign.
 
350zCommTech said:
I don't think China has entered a depression yet, much less coming out of one.:D

When watching Cramer, you have to remind yourself that he works for the pigman. His calls are ultimately meant to hurt the masses.

As for China, what do you think about this headline?
Click to expand...

Yeah Cramer is still a GS guy and trader at heart, so we always take everything he says with a grain of salt.

The China article, plus others of unrest due to the lack of jobs, tells me that Chicoms are going to have some uprisings to put down, and until the US consumer decides he wants the cheap poor quality chinese products, they are in for some rough times, if not an all out civil uprising that will have to be put down with brutal force.

And the following sounds vaguely familiar.:rolleyes:

"The document urged local and central government departments to adopt measures to create jobs and increase rural incomes. Companies were asked to take on more social responsibilities and give rural migrant workers more favorable employment treatment. Flexible employment policies and more training chances were also encouraged."

CB
 
CountryBoy said:
And the following sounds vaguely familiar.:rolleyes:

"The document urged local and central government departments to adopt measures to create jobs and increase rural incomes. Companies were asked to take on more social responsibilities and give rural migrant workers more favorable employment treatment. Flexible employment policies and more training chances were also encouraged."

CB
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Oh, come on....You didn't fall for the "Doing something is better than nothing" line?:D

View attachment 5796
 
350zCommTech said:
Oh, come on....You didn't fall for the "Doing something is better than nothing" line?:D
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It's strange you should mention that my friend :embarrest: as I'd have to admit I've been fairly caught up in that train of thought.

The BIGGEST PROBLEM is 'we' have been led to believe that the FED can magically turn things around 'no matter how bad the circumstances may be' - and we honestly have NO CLUE how Greenspan lucked out - especially gaining traction with the housing bubble.

It probably way to complicated for anyone to know 'what is the best thing to do' - BUT I'VE WONDERED ALL ALONG - AND MADE IT PRETTY CLEAR - that the political endeavors to manipulate the Markets do more harm than good. It would be way better to 'DO NOTHING' - let nature run it's course and the inevitable consequences fall - and then work on the recovery. But who is going to listen to that - when is does not sound like a Politically Correct Statement. :rolleyes::(
 
350zCommTech said:
Oh, come on....You didn't fall for the "Doing something is better than nothing" line?:D

View attachment 5796
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:laugh: No HOPE is all we have now. I've said it from TARP 1, we should've just let things run it's course. Most of the time things work themselves out for the best and this is one of those time.

We should've done nothing until we could've spent more time studying this package, instead of saying we will drop into a depression next week if it ain't signed today. Thank goodness it got signed today. Expect some more high and tight fastballs in the future, that'll keep us off the plate and thinking about keeping our head on giving us little to no time to comment, if BHO allows us to review all legislation, yeah and pigs will fly :). Maybe the occasion snapper just to keep us guessing.;)

CB
 
This is from some guy posting in a blog on Feb 2nd. A few things standout as facts, but I'm not sure if all of it is.

Most ppl forget that it was the "Power Elite" in 1999 who were responsible for the repeal the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 (the repeal of which allowed banks to enter the investment business and to assume extraordinary monetary risks by building leverage of 30 to 1, and even greater!). This action by the US Congress has been a major factor in the cause of massive bank failures in the US. But "our Congress is never wrong" . . . they will never accept any responsibility for this financial crisis.

So let's review the history here. Those responsible for lobbying the Congress (to repeal the Glass-Steagall Act) include:

- Sandy Weill, former CEO of CitiGroup
- Hank Paulson, former Chairman of Goldman Sachs (& later Treasury Secretary)
- Robert Rubin, former Treasury Secretary (during both of Clinton's terms)
- Larry Summers, Treasury Secretary in 1999, when Congress repealed the Act
- Bill Clinton, US President in 1999
- Oh, yeah, and Timmy Geithner, Treasury underling under Larry Summers

These are the scoundrels who collectively lobbied the Congress so that they and their cronies could maintain their power within the Power Elite.

If Obama truly wanted change, he would never have endorsed the appointment of these thieves. The keys to the Kingdom have now been given back to Larry Summers and Timmy Geithner, and our country's fate is in their hands!
Click to expand...
Today's news.

Obama Rejects ‘Car Czar,’ Naming Geithner, Summers to Head Team

By John Hughes and Kim Chipman

Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama opted against naming a “car czar,” instead asking Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and White House economic adviser Lawrence Summers to head a task force on revamping the U.S. auto industry.
Ron Bloom, a United Steelworkers union adviser and former Lazard Ltd. vice president, will join administration members on the team, White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said today.
The president was under pressure to say who would handle the issue before tomorrow, when General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC must give progress reports on plans to restructure as a condition of $17.4 billion in U.S. Treasury loans. The task force puts an end to reports Obama would recruit a well-known figure from outside to serve as the so-called car czar, an approach that had some support in the auto industry.
“There needs to be a trail boss here,” said Andrew Gross, chairman and chief executive officer of Automotive Consulting Services LLC in Clackamas, Oregon, in a phone interview today. “Typically when you have a committee set-up it provides cover. Everyone’s responsible, but no one’s accountable.”
Geithner has “got his hands full” trying to rescue the banking industry, Gross said.
After Congress failed to approve a bailout for the automakers, former President George W. Bush’s administration authorized loans Dec. 19. That effectively made the Treasury secretary the car czar, with responsibility for making sure the companies meet deadlines and authority to revoke the loans.
Geithner will remain Obama’s official “designee” to oversee the restructuring. The Treasury secretary can recall the aid if the automakers fail to show by March 31 that they have a plan to become profitable.
‘Broader Array’
Obama’s task force will incorporate a “broader array of people” than a car czar, Gibbs told reporters on Air Force One today as Obama returned to Washington from a weekend in Chicago.
“The approach that the administration has settled on provides a vast amount of expertise that crosses a number of governmental agencies and departments,” Gibbs said. Geithner and Summers will coordinate responses “that include Energy and Transportation as well as the economic team.”
Bloom will bring “vast credibility” to the task force, Gibbs said. Bloom was described by administration officials as an expert in restructuring who also has experience in manufacturing and in working with unions.
Steven Rattner
Absent from the administration’s team is Steven Rattner, co-founder of private-equity firm Quadrangle Group LLC in New York. He had been under consideration for the post of car czar, people familiar with the matter said last month. Rattner declined to comment, spokesman Adam Miller said today.
“GM welcomes the creation” of the task force, the company said in a statement today. “We expect to meet soon with this team to share GM’s detailed restructuring plan.”
Chrysler spokesman Stuart Schorr said in an e-mailed statement that the company “looks forward to working with Secretary Geithner and the Presidential Task Force on the Auto Industry as the company continues and completes its restructuring plan.”
“President Obama has asked his most senior economic advisers to be involved in this effort, and that is a signal of the importance he gives to its role and responsibility,” Representative Sander Levin, a Michigan Democrat, said in a statement today.
Members of Congress, automakers and industry analysts have spent weeks discussing who might be chosen from outside Washington to serve as the car czar and what expertise that person should bring to the task.
Five Senate Democrats, including Debbie Stabenow of Michigan, wrote a letter on Feb. 5 urging Obama to name an expert in manufacturing as part of a panel to help oversee the auto loans.

More.........

To contact the reporters on this story: John Hughes in Washington at jhughes5@bloomberg.net; To contact the reporter on this story: Kim Chipman in Washington at kchipman@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: February 16, 2009 14:13 EST
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aNpLdwT2Frs4&refer=news
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China will not come out of it's current financial troubles until it has an export market to export to. Japan is in the same boat, and has just reported this is the worst either since the 1970's or WWII (depending who you talk to). China has the further problem that the Multinationals stop ordering from their plants first, before the ones in their home market. Plus, instead of closing plants Chinese companies are simply cutting hours, but a couple hours of work doesn't pay the bills so workers are simply going home. To be rich is glorious, to be unpaid is the pits! There's no sign the U.S., or the other market of choice, the EU, are going to run out and buy imports anytime soon.
 
Silverbird said:
China will not come out of it's current financial troubles until it has an export market to export to. Japan is in the same boat, and has just reported this is the worst either since the 1970's or WWII (depending who you talk to). China has the further problem that the Multinationals stop ordering from their plants first, before the ones in their home market. Plus, instead of closing plants Chinese companies are simply cutting hours, but a couple hours of work doesn't pay the bills so workers are simply going home. To be rich is glorious, to be unpaid is the pits! There's no sign the U.S., or the other market of choice, the EU, are going to run out and buy imports anytime soon.
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What ever happened to the decoupling theory?:D
 
Z, I'm confused, I'm looking at the 1-minute charts of EURUSD on Livecharts, they haven't hit the 1.2661 mark yet on that chart, I can't tell if there is a time lag on their charts or not, but they are live 1-minute charts. Ooops, just hit 1.6258 (but I never saw the candle hit the 1.2661 mark tho).

chart


Question I had was what site are you watching for your chart?? I'm watching at
http://www.livecharts.co.uk/ForexCharts/eurusd.php
 
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alevin said:
Z, I'm confused, I'm looking at the 1-minute charts of EURUSD on Livecharts, they haven't hit the 1.2661 mark yet on that chart, I can't tell if there is a time lag on their charts or not, but they are live 1-minute charts. Ooops, just hit 1.6258 (but I never saw the candle hit the 1.2661 mark tho).



Question I had was what site are you watching for your chart?? I'm watching at
http://www.livecharts.co.uk/ForexCharts/eurusd.php
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Not sure what you're asking. Your chart clearly shows it going through it just before 03:29:00.

Edit: If you were referring to the 1.2661 candle on my eur/usd chart from the previous page, that was a daily chart taken at the point in time. Today has just begone so that candle could still move up and down. The candles for your 1 min chart will finish every min.

I like this chart: http://quote2.fxtrek.com/Misc/promoChart.asp?df=iwizard2
 
OK, sorry I'm just getting used to these minitime charts and forex too. I thought you were referring to a minute candle that ended at 1.2661, I only saw one that blew through that mark. BTW, if KD is right about what's happening, we may be watching THE Black Swan live. Been nice knowing everyone, hope we're all here this time next week.
 
alevin said:
BTW, if KD is right about what's happening, we may be watching THE Black Swan live. Been nice knowing everyone, hope we're all here this time next week.
Click to expand...

There might be something happening but the Yen does not jive with a Black Swan event. If something terrible is happening, the Yen would be rising. Also the Nikkei is only 120 points.
 
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